How Macron will exploit Merkel's departure to push his EU army vision

Emmanuel Macron will exploit the power vacuum left in Brussels by the departing Angela Merkel to push forward plans for EU military integration and a bolstered European defence.

“Macron is top dog,” said Andrew Duff, a former MEP and president of the Spinelli group of European federalists, “Whomever succeeds Merkel will take time to get going.”

EU policymaking is driven by the French-German “engine”. Every great leap forward in EU integration has come with the backing of Paris and Berlin working in tandem.

For most of her 16 years in office, Angela Merkel, the longest-serving EU leader of the largest EU country, has been the dominant partner at the heart of the alliance and in the European Council.

“Queen Europe” was crucial in shaping the EU’s response to a string of challenges over an estimated 200 summits since her first in 2005. She has worked with four French presidents.

Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, once said that when she speaks in the European Council, every leader puts down their iPhone and listens.

Macron 'wants French leadership in a European federal union'

Now all eyes will turn to the mercurial Mr Macron, a leader who is far more fond of disruption than the cautious Mrs Merkel.

He wants eurozone reform, moves to bolster pan-EU democracy and significant steps forward on common foreign policy and defence, which could in the distant future form the building blocks of a European army.

“I think he is a true successor of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. He wants French leadership in a European federal union. And unlike Giscard he looks set to get his second term,” said Mr Duff, the author of new book ‘Britain and the Puzzle of European Union’.

Giscard d’Estaing, a former French president who died last year, was influential in the drafting of the doomed Constitution for Europe. It was rejected by French and Irish voters, but still informed significant parts of the later Lisbon Treaty, which created the modern EU.

Shortly after Mr Macron's election in 2017, which saw him celebrate victory to a backdrop of EU flags and the bloc’s anthem, he delivered his Sorbonne speech on a “sovereign, united and democratic Europe”.

Merkel largely ignored Macron's eurozone reforms

Progress on those ideas were slower than Mr Macron would have liked. Common EU defence research projects were agreed but have been beset by difficulties, while his eurozone reforms were largely ignored by the Chancellor.

There were also Franco-German tensions over Brexit, with Mr Macron consistently advocating a tougher line rather than the lengthy extensions to negotiations favoured by Mrs Merkel, who was determined to avoid a no deal Brexit.

But Mr Macron scored a notable victory in convincing the Mrs Merkel to back the EU’s mammoth coronavirus economic stimulus package, which borrows money against the EU Budget, and bust a long-standing German taboo against common debt.

He will hope to use the billions of euros in EU funds to build support for his plan for “a Europe that protects”.

He will have a close ally in Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, who he suggested for the post in 2019 in talks with Mrs Merkel.

Mrs von der Leyen has known Mrs Merkel for many years but does not have the same relationship with Mr Laschet and Mr Scholz is from a different party.

Brussels sources detected the hand of Paris in her recent State of the Union speech in which she urged member states to build an EU Defence Union.

France takes up EU presidency on Jan 1

France takes up the rotating presidency of the EU on Jan 1 and a joint defence summit is planned next year with Mrs von der Leyen, which is expected to push for the creation of a 5,000 strong EU rapid reaction force.

Mr Macron is clearly a man in a hurry after the frustrations of the last five years. He secured Joe Biden’s tacit support for a bolstered EU defence in crisis talks held after the Aukus row.

He has held talks with the two main candidates to replace Mrs Merkel, the centre-Right CDU candidate Armin Laschet and the favourite, Olaf Scholz, for the centre-Left SPD.

It was reported that Mr Macron would prefer a Scholz victory but was confident he could work well with Mr Laschet, who has also called for a “sovereign Europe”.

Both men appeared to give Mr Macron their support in the final televised election debate before Sunday's elections.

Germany 'will still be a major economic player'

“Whoever succeeds Mrs Merkel will be a newbie in the European Council. But Germany will still be Germany,” said Daniel Freund, a German Green MEP, “it will still be a major economic player”.

Diplomatic sources suggest that Germany will be happy for Mr Macron to take the lead on common EU defence. “It is difficult for Germany to be seen talking about building up the army because of the war,” one said.

Mrs Merkel herself may be going nowhere fast. Coalition talks after the elections are expected to be lengthy and difficult and “Mutti” will stay on as caretaker leader until a government is formed.

Provided he wins re-election next year, Mr Macron’s allies expect him to push his reforms to the very limits of the EU treaties. Treaty change would mean torturous intergovernmental negotiations and will be avoided in the near term.

“Things could get very interesting, by which I mean unpredictable and things were rarely unpredictable with Merkel,” said one EU diplomat.

But there is still some scepticism in Brussels that Mr Macron will deliver, especially if it means putting French interests ahead of European ones.

Leonie Martin, president of the Young European Federalists said, “Perhaps Macron has some confidence to actually pull through with some of some of the goals we have for Europe. But he needs to walk the walk not just talk the talk."