Macron Seeks Bigger French Say in Pacific as China’s Clout Grows

Ania Nussbaum and Rebecca Choong Wilkins
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Emmanuel Macron slammed what he called the imperialism of neighboring powers on a visit to the South Pacific, seeking to promote France as a balancing force in a region with strategic significance to both China and the US.

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“The sovereignty of many states, often the smallest and most fragile, is threatened by new imperialisms and power dynamics,” the French president said in Vanuatu, an archipelago where Beijing has built roads, stadiums and even a parliament building. He cited illegal maritime patrols and predatory loans, without mentioning China explicitly.

China and the US have sought to build influence in the region, an area which would facilitate military access to Taiwan in a conflict. The US has pledged to prevent Beijing from bringing the democratically-run island under control by force.

Macron wants Paris to act as a balancing force but he doesn’t have the diplomatic or military might of the two superpowers. So he’s racing to define France’s role and what it can offer to small island-nations threatened by climate change.

Macron’s main stop in the region earlier this week was New Caledonia, a French territory that’s key to French strategy. He’ll then head to Papua New Guinea and Sri Lanka — a first for a French president — Friday. Meanwhile, his Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire travels to China this weekend to boost economic ties, meeting with representatives from car maker BYD Co. in the hope that it will build a car plant in France.

“If independence means that tomorrow you’ll decide to have a Chinese base here, or to be dependent on another maritime fleet, good luck with that — that’s no independence!” Macron told crowds in Noumea, the capital of New Caledonia, on Wednesday, after some pro-independence leaders refused to meet with him. Vanuatu has previously denied media reports from 2018 that China planned to build a military base on the island.

After departing the archipelago that France took possession of in the 19th century, Macron in Vanuatu denounced the “hegemony or imperialism” of “some great neighboring powers” who are offering alliances in exchange for investments. France will soon open an embassy in the Samoa islands, a first embassy in Polynesia, a development agency office in Vanuatu, and deploy 200 more soldiers and upgrade defense equipment in New Caledonia, Macron said.

Macron’s government was stunned in 2021 when Australia scrapped a massive submarine deal with Paris to enter a defense alliance with the US and the UK dubbed “AUKUS.” The snub effectively put the brakes on French ambitions in the zone, and reinforced a perception that France should remain independent from US policy when it comes to Taiwan.

Tightrope

Macron is walking a tightrope. He’s trying to assert France’s interests in the region, where some 1.5 million of its citizens live and with a military presence in overseas territories including New Caledonia, Wallis-and-Futuna and Mayotte. He has also said Europe shouldn’t be a “vassal” to the US on Taiwan policy, or to China.

Macron has repeatedly sought to strike a middle path between China and the US, warning against a split in the global order. One official in Macron’s office said France doesn’t have an anti-China policy but wants to propose an alternative model in the area, with the backing of regional powers such as India or Australia.

Paris needs to clarify how it would cooperate with allies in case of a high-intensity conflict in the region, argues Celine Pajon, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations.

“In the event of an invasion, the US would necessarily be at the forefront of the military response. France and Europe would act first and foremost through diplomatic and economic sanctions,” Pajon said in an interview. “France does, however, have military capabilities and a degree of interoperability with its Asian and American partners that could enable it to intervene in the area, should the need arise.”

While French officials have privately expressed worries about China’s growing influence in the region, China has had varying degrees of success in its attempts to boost diplomatic ties in the Indo-Pacific over the past decade. It failed to secure a sweeping deal with ten Pacific nations during a visit by then Foreign Minister Wang Yi last year. The proposal was shelved after push back from regional leadership.

France is the European Union country with the biggest presence in the Indo-Pacific, including 93% of its exclusive economic zone where it can exploit maritime resources. New Caledonia is believed to hold as much as a quarter of the world’s reserves of nickel, a key metal for electric cars at the heart of the green energy transition.

--With assistance from Alfred Cang and Jenni Marsh.

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