Mad Bets: Chiefs-Bucs Prop Bets
Minty Bets, Liz Loza & Matt Harmon debate a few prop bets for the Chiefs-Buccaneers game on Sunday, February 7.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: Build your bankroll for the big game. New users get a $25 bonus plus a 100% deposit match. Sign up today. It's time for some props for the big game this weekend, everyone. I'm Minty Bets, here with fantasy analysts Liz Loza and Matt Harmon. Let's get started, guys. Will there be a made 2-point conversion? Liz.
LIZ LOZA: Yeah! Why not? Give me all the points, right? Last year, the Bucs led the NFL in 2-point conversions, a little bit different this year, admittedly. But Kansas City has maintained a 2-point point conversion rate of 100%. So I'll go with yes.
DAN HARMON: Yeah, absolutely. You think we're going to get a game with two of the best offenses in the NFL and there's not going to be a situation where someone's chasing points, has got to go for 2 and that they're going to pull it off? Yeah, definitely give me a 2-point point conversion in this one.
MINTY BETS: I say yes as well. I think they're going to play a, this is going to be a neck and neck game. I think these teams are going to play a little bit risky. Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown? Matt.
DAN HARMON: Let me just go with no on this one, for really no analytical reason, other than I think all the offenses are going to be doing the scoring, so forget it. No, no, give me no on this one.
MINTY BETS: Liz?
LIZ LOZA: I'm in agreement with Harmon here. I mean, I am here for all the points. But the Bucs only managed one defensive touchdown on the season. Ironically, it was Jamel Dean, who was not available in week 12 when these two teams met each other over the regular season. But still, if it's not Tyrann Mathieu, I don't see who it can be, so I'm also going to say no.
MINTY BETS: OK, I'm going to go with yes here. There has been six defensive or special teams touchdowns in the last 11 championship games, so that's all I kind of need. Over or under 1 and 1/2 interceptions in the game, Liz?
LIZ LOZA: Well, I mean, I've already talked up the Honey Badger, and I absolutely think he gets a repeat performance in this one against Tom Brady. But Tom Brady is coming off of a 3 interception game against Green Bay, and I don't think he plays sloppy in a big moment like this. Plus, Mahomes has been clean throughout the postseason. So I'm going to take the under.
DAN HARMON: I'll take the over here on this one. I'll go away from Liz on this one, because number one, Spags, Steve Spagnuolo loves coaching against Brady. He's been lights out, obviously with those Giant Super Bowls, of course, but even when they played in the regular season, I think they did some really good things against him. Even if the final numbers don't show that. So I think they can force a couple mistakes on their side. And you know, there's aggressive players on the Bucs defense too. So give me the over on this one.
MINTY BETS: All right. I say over as well. The Bucs and the Chiefs defenses are tied second and third right up there in interceptions. Who will have the most receiving yards, Matt?
DAN HARMON: Yeah, I'll take chalk here and I'll go with Travis Kelce, because obviously, I think that the Chiefs offense is going to be great in this game. We know that. But look at the way that they just got shredded by Tyreek Hill last time these two teams played. I think they over-correct, try to do some things against Hill. And the Bucs defense has been a bottom 10 unit against tight ends as it is, even with some of those speedy linebackers. Doesn't matter. I think Kelce hits his over, and I think he has the most receiving yards in this game.
MINTY BETS: I'm high on Travis Kelce as well. That's my answer. Liz, what about yours?
LIZ LOZA: You know what? I'm going to play the contrarian. I understand both points of view here. But I'm going to say Chris Godwin. Just listen to me a second. He's coming off of 110-yard effort, probably no Antonio Brown, so the target volume should be there. Plus Sneed, who has played well for the Chiefs over the season, is still a rookie, was concussed in the AFC Championship game. So I think Godwin could be a sneaky winner in this category.
MINTY BETS: Over or under 1 and 1/2 more seasons for Tom Brady, Liz.
LIZ LOZA: I mean, neither TB 12's arm strength nor ego is dwindling. So I will hammer the over here.
MINTY BETS: Ooh. Matt?
DAN HARMON: Yeah, same. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not touching that one. I'll go over on this one. It's been pretty bad betting against Tom Brady of late in all facets, but especially how long he's going to stick around in the NFL. So I'm with Liz on this one. Give me the over.
MINTY BETS: I like the under here. I mean, if he wins this game this weekend, I think he'll retire. But if he doesn't, he's got one more year left. What color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach? Matt.
DAN HARMON: Yeah, I've run a lot of models on this specific question, crunched a lot of numbers, looked at the spreadsheets, done the whole thing. I'm talking color-coded spreadsheets here. And my analytics say you got to go with blue on this one. That's the bet.
MINTY BETS: OK.
LIZ LOZA: Oh.
MINTY BETS: Liz.
LIZ LOZA: Interesting. I mean, I am very grateful to have this AR technology at our disposal for props just like these, because I'm doing the same number crunching that Harman is doing. But what he failed to recognize, is that blue is the color most associated with the New England Patriots, and were the Bucs to win, I think Tom Brady would like some separation from that sort of tradition. I'm going to go with clear, because it is the most dumped Gatorade color, having been sloshed over Super Bowl winning head coaches eight times, and we haven't seen it in a decade, which means it's due.
DAN HARMON: Busting out the calculator. I'm rerunning the numbers. I got to look into all that, but we'll see.
MINTY BETS: I'm going with red here, because both team colors have red in it. Simple as that.