Mad Bets: NFL Championship Round Prop Bets

Minty Bets, Jared Quay & Matt Harmon debate a few prop bets for the Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Video Transcript

MINTY BETS: Its conference championship weekend, everyone. I am Minty Bets here with Jared Quay and fantasy analyst Matt Harmon. And we're here to talk some prop bets. Let's get started, guys. Pick the player you're most confident will score a touchdown this weekend. Jared, let's start with you.

JARED QUAY: I'm going to go with Stefon Diggs. I think he definitely scores a touchdown. There's this really smart guy that works at Yahoo Sports named Matt Harmon, and he once told me that Stefon Diggs just the best separation from routes. He studied all the receivers. And as I watch it, he just proves himself. He's always open. He gets so many targets. And I just feel like the Bills don't have a chance unless he gets in the end zone. So I-- my best player to score this week is Stefon Diggs.

MATT HARMON: Listen, I will never argue against Stefon Diggs. I might actually be bringing him up a little bit later. But I'm going to go with Davante Adams on this one. I think Adams and Diggs have been the two best receivers in football this year.

And before you come at me with, well, Tampa Bay shut down Michael Thomas last week, number one, Adams is a better player than Michael Thomas. I would have told you that 365 days ago. Also, he's healthy. We know that Michael Thomas has been dealing with injuries all season.

I think Adams has really just developed to probably the best off-the-line receiver. I mean, he just leaves guys in the dust. We saw it against Jalen Ramsey-- double-digit targets. He scores a touchdown. They used him in creative ways, too, to get him those free releases. I think that's going to happen plenty in what I expect to be a pretty high-scoring game between the Packers and the Bucs. So give me Adams as the guy I'm most confident finds the end zone here.

MINTY BETS: All right. My pick is also Davante Adams. I mean, Aaron Rodgers [INAUDIBLE] quarterback. He utilizes Adams more than any other receiver. Davante Adams has recorded a touchdown in every single game in the regular postseason except for three games. So I think he is the best one-- my most confident to score a touchdown.

All right. Prop number two. Who will have more passing touchdowns, Aaron Rodgers-- and let's favor him by half a touchdown-- or Tom Brady? Harmon, let's start with you.

MATT HARMON: Yeah, that half a touchdown, I think, actually makes a pretty big difference here. Look, I think that it's tempting to go with Brady because of that advantage. But Rodgers is just playing too well right now. He's at home. So I'm going to go with Rodgers even with the small handicap here.

And look, the thing that I think is going to be the biggest difference between this match-up and what we saw early in the season when these two teams got together-- I think Za'Darius Smith and those guys are going to be cooking up front. They were all over Jared Goff in their last game in the win over the Rams. I think those guys up front are going to be cooking for the Packers once again. That is going to disrupt this passing game just enough to keep the Bucs off schedule.

So I'm going to go with Rodgers. I expect their passing game to just play much better than the Bucs right now, even though Tampa is playing at an extremely high level, and they're getting contributions from all their guys. Because of the pass rusher advantage for the Packers over the Bucs, I'm going to still stick with Rodgers.

MINTY BETS: Jared, I can't see you taking Tom Brady in this.

JARED QUAY: Yeah, I think Tom Brady's been good this year. But look, I didn't make it this far in sports to get to where I'm at now betting against Aaron Rodgers when he's playing MVP football-- caliber football right now. I'm not doing that.

And I just think that the Buccaneers' run defense is so strong that Aaron Rodgers is going to be forced to throw the ball, because you're not going to even be able to run when you get to those goal lines. I just think that he has a field day. I think Marcedes Lewis scores a touchdown [INAUDIBLE] put a little $5 on Marcedes Lewis to score a touchdown--

MATT HARMON: Right.

JARED QUAY: --'cause Aaron Rodgers is spreading the wealth this game.

MINTY BETS: It's a [INAUDIBLE]. I also have to go with Aaron Rodgers. I mean, just sweet and simple, he's-- he can throw farther and more accurately. Let's move on to prop number three. Who will have the most receiving yards this week? Jared?

JARED QUAY: All right. This is where me and Harmon switch, all right? I went with [INAUDIBLE] score a touchdown. I think Davante Adams is going to have the most receiving yards this week. I just think they're going to have a home-field advantage in that [INAUDIBLE] area. And I feel like they know how to play in it. I don't think the Buccaneers do.

And Aaron Rodgers, if you have time to win, you got to go to your number-one receiver. I think Davante Adams gets a couple of touchdowns 'cause the Buccaneers' pass defense isn't great to me, while I feel like the other three teams that are playing have pretty solid pass defenses. So let's go with Davante Adams.

MATT HARMON: Yeah, we're switching on this one. See, I'm going Diggs here as my favorite to get the most receiving yards. Like, all the analysis that Jared provided was perfect. He's the best separator in the NFL. I expect to see that plenty of times when these two teams get together.

And look, I know that the Chiefs have gotten some decent play out of guys [INAUDIBLE]. I mean, Tyrann Mathieu was all over the place last time the Chiefs played against the Cleveland Browns. There's plenty of good corners there that have played above their talent level, I think, in Kansas City. But nevertheless, none of these guys can hang with Stefon Diggs, who has been getting open at every single level of the field.

And also, too, the fact that Frank Clark is a guy-- Chiefs fans are just kind of over this. Like, he's just getting all this money. They give him all these draft picks to get him. He's not getting any edge pressure. I think that's going to be a big deal for Josh Allen to be able to sit back in the pocket, hang in there, be able to find Diggs downfield. I think Diggs is going to absolutely go off in this game.

MINTY BETS: I originally liked Diggs, too. But assuming Patrick Mahomes does start, I'm going to go with tight end Travis Kelce. Now, in the last five games, he's actually recorded more receiving yards than the actual wide receivers on this roster. So Travis Kelce is my pick for this [INAUDIBLE].

JARED QUAY: Minty with a switch-up, huh? Most receiving yards with a tight end on it. I got you, Minty.

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