Mad Bets: NFL Week 11 Prop Bets
Matt Gothard, Jared Quay & Liz Loza debate a few prop bets for Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MATT GOTHARD: Welcome back to "Mad Bets," everybody. I'm Matt Gothard, here with Jared Quay and fantasy expert Liz Loza to go over three NFL Week 11 prop bets. Let's get right into it. Aaron Rodgers, minus a half touchdown versus Philip Rivers. Let's start with Liz. Who's going to have more passing touchdowns?
LIZ LOZA: Ooh. Well, Philip Rivers has played, like, well-ish over the last three weeks, and I love that Michael Pittman breakout, let me tell you, from Thursday night. But let's not break out the bolo just yet. He's only thrown 11 touchdowns so far this season. That's one more than Nick Foles. Eh. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has Davante Adams, and I will take that combo every day, even in a tough matchup.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, Jared. Are you going with Aaron Rodgers too?
JARED QUAY: Oh, yeah. I'm going with Liz, because Liz has been right. She's been whooping ass on this show. Can I say that?
[LAUGHTER]
Aaron Rodgers here, they love to run the ball, but the Colts' run stop defense is no joke. And I think, in the red zone, Davante Adams is better than your average dive run. So, therefore, I think Aaron Rodgers is going to win this one easy.
MATT GOTHARD: Oh, man. I'm on the same page, which means that Philip Rivers is probably going to have a great game. It's a sweep. We're all taking Aaron Rodgers. All right. Next up, Patrick Mahomes on the road against the Raiders. Over or under 350 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes? Jared, let's start with you?
JARED QUAY: I've got to go under. I mean, Pat Mahomes is great. But if you ever watch these Raider-Chief games, Andy Reid's very conservative. They play this game close. They lost to them last time. So, obviously, they're going to try to make sure they keep ball possession. And, to do that, you can't have Pat Mahomes throwing bombs all day. 350 is a lot of yards. I mean, I still think the Chiefs get the W. But I take Pat Mahomes, under.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, Liz. What are you thinking? Do you agree with Jared?
LIZ LOZA: I mean, I love that Jared brought up that the only game that Mahomes home has dropped all season was Week Five against who? Oh, the Raiders. Which also means, because the team is coming off a bye, Steve Spagnuolo has had an extra week to devise a defensive plan and enact some revenge. I don't think Mahomes is gonna need to pass for 350 yards. And while I'd love to see him just show off, I have Clyde Edwards-Helaire projected for too many yards. So I've got to take the under as well.
MATT GOTHARD: All right. Well, I'm going over just to buck the trend. I'm pretty sure I'll be wrong. But, Sunday Night Football, I feel like, you know, Mahomes loves primetime. And they want some revenge against the Raiders. So I'll take over. I'll gladly be wrong, I'm sure. All right. Last one up, Aaron Donald, over or under 1.5 sacks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Liz, what are you thinking for Tom Brady? Is he gonna get sacked more than twice by Aaron Donald?
LIZ LOZA: OK, listen. So, the Tampa Bay offensive line has a top-five rated pass-protecting unit per Football Outsiders. I mean, they have been extremely healthy, which is cool, right? And they've had the fear of God instilled in them. So they've only allowed 14 sacks on the season. But the times that they have faced elite D lines, like the Bears or the Saints, then Tom Brady has gotten sacked three times in each of those contests. Aaron Donald is due. I will take the over.
MATT GOTHARD: All right. Jared, are you thinking the same thing? What are you thinking?
JARED QUAY: Again, never go against Liz.
[LAUGHTER]
Bruce Arians runs a system where he likes to get the ball out deep. He has Tom Brady hold the ball a lot. Tom Brady is probably the smartest quarterback in the NFL, so he does know how to get his reads out real quick. But, still, Aaron Donald's a beast. He's not human.
LIZ LOZA: Mm-Hmm.
JARED QUAY: And so, therefore, I think, two sacks, very doable.
MATT GOTHARD: I'm going under on this one. I like the Rams. But I think they're going to lose this game. And, if Tampa Bay wants to win it, they can't be giving up multiple sacks to Aaron Donald. So I'm going to take the under. But, again, I'm probably wrong. Liz, thanks so much for stopping by. Make sure to catch her on "Fantasy Football Live" every Sunday morning. If she's saved my fantasy football team, she can definitely save yours.
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