Maduro thinks Chile’s vote for new constitution is a win for the left. He should think again | Opinion

Venezuela’s leftist dictator Nicolás Maduro enthusiastically applauded Chile’s landslide Oct. 25 vote to replace its constitution, as if it were a resounding defeat of capitalism,and a victory of socialism. But Maduro may have been too fast to celebrate.

Leaving aside the irony that the Venezuelan autocrat is congratulating Chile for a free vote that he refuses to allow in his own country, there several reasons to believe that that most Chileans won’t be as stupid as to approve a new constitution that would lead to anything close to Venezuela’s economic disaster.

According to the plan enacted by Chile’s President Sebastián Piñera following massive street protests that rocked his country last year, Chileans will now elect a 155-member constituent assembly that will draft a new Constitution to replace the one that was approved by Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s regime in 1980.

The new constitution will have to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the constituent assembly, and the final text will have to be approved by Chilean voters in a 2022 referendum.

Contrary to Maduro’s claims and those of other members of the Jurassic left, Chile’s mass protests last year were a product of the country’s economic success, more than of its failures. As I wrote at the time, the protests were — much like Sunday’s vote for a new constitution — a kind of first-world revolt by a rapidly growing middle class that is demanding U.S. and European living standards.

As with the protests by France’s “yellow vests” or Spain’s “indignados” in recent years, Chile’s protests reflect a crisis of rising expectations by people who want a bigger share of a growing pie.

While Chile’s free-market economy may need some corrections, it’s by far Latin America’s most successful social experiment. Chile’s poverty rate has fallen from 40 percent of the population 30 years ago to less than 10 percent today, and extreme poverty fell from 24 percent of the population to less than 3 percent.

Life expectancy has risen from 69 years to 79 years over the same period, and — contrary to conventional wisdom in many circles — inequality has been going down in recent years. The United Nations Human Development Index, which ranks countries according to their social, as well as economic, progress, ranks Chile as the most advanced Latin American country.

There are several reasons to remain hopeful that Chileans won’t commit political and economic hara-kiri by voting for a constitution that could open the door to populism.

First, despite efforts by Chile’s Communist Party and other far-left groups to put themselves at the forefront of the protests, people across the political spectrum has supported the demonstrations. Some of Chile’s best known right-of-center politicians, including possible presidential candidate Joaquin Lavin, have supported the replacement of the old constitution.

“The vote for a new Constitution wasn’t a vote by the left,” Chile’s recent finance minister Felipe Larraín told me. “It was a vote by a very mixed group of people that included many right-of-center voters.”

Second, if Chile’s right-of-center parties want to survive, they will have to unite and present a common list of candidates for the constituent assembly. That would allow them to ensure that the new constitution continues to guarantee the Central Bank’s independence and includes safeguards to prevent Chile from becoming a populist basket case like some of its neighbors.

If they are smart, moderate parties will propose a positive agenda — something like, “Let’s make sure we become a Denmark, and not a Venezuela” — to defeat the doom-and-gloom political discourse that stresses the shortcomings of the current free-market model. To defeat a tale, you need a new tale.

Granted, the next two years in Chile will be marked by political uncertainty. That may scare away investments and slow down economic growth.

But, as former Chilean president Ricardo Lagos told me this week, Maduro’s suggestion that Chile’s vote for a new constitution was a triumph of the left “is an exaggeration and an abuse.”

Chile has entered uncharted territory. But if moderate forces play their cards right, the constitutional changes could help placate Chileans who feel they have not been rewarded by the country’s economic growth. Chile’s system may still emerge from this challenge stronger — and remain Latin America’s role model for years to come.

Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show at 8 p.m. E.T. Sunday on CNN en Español. Twitter: @oppenheimera