Despite drop in Charlotte COVID cases, positivity rate still higher than NC average

Alison Kuznitz
·4 min read
Some of Mecklenburg County’s COVID-19 trends saw modest improvement in the past week, despite the sharply rising death toll.

Mecklenburg County’s daily coronavirus caseload has dropped by almost 50% since the start of February, with the 7-day moving average of new infections now returning to pre-Thanksgiving levels.

That is a significant improvement, and the latest data from the health department underscores sustained recovery from a staggering surge of infections from November to January.

Mecklenburg, over the past week, added an average 326 new cases per day — compared to 613 on Feb. 1 and the highest volume, 936, on Jan. 12, a Charlotte Observer analysis of N.C. Department of Health and Human Services data show.

So far this month, Mecklenburg has logged 7,912 infections, according to DHHS. At this point in January, by contrast, Mecklenburg recorded 15,282 new cases.

Despite the noticeable improvements, the number of people hospitalized remains much higher than seen during the previous July peak. And the weekly average COVID-19 positivity rate remains higher than the 4-5% range recorded last fall.

Since the start of the pandemic, Mecklenburg has seen 94,306 cases, DHHS reported Friday morning. County officials say 843 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications, with almost 45% of all fatalities linked to outbreaks at long-term care facilities, like nursing homes.

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Positivity rate

The percent of positive tests among Mecklenburg residents is 7.8%, as of Wednesday, the latest data available. That’s higher than the statewide average, which was just under an average 6% this week.

Better or worse: This metric has steadily decreased since January, indicating the virus is circulating less throughout the Charlotte area.

At its worst, the average positivity rate swelled to 16% on Jan. 5, measured across a 7-day moving average.

This week’s positivity rate is still high compared to the fall, when Mecklenburg’s positivity rate managed to drop below 5%, a threshold outlined by state and world health leaders when considering loosing coronavirus-related restrictions. At the previous peak seen locally, the positivity rate hovered around 10 to 11%.

Health officials warn that people risk being exposed to COVID-19 whenever they leave home. Some ZIP codes in Mecklenburg are grappling with higher coronavirus case rates than others, including neighborhoods along North Graham, North Tryon and North Davidson streets, the Observer reported this week.

Caveat: The number of COVID-19 tests administered daily in Mecklenburg is also dropping, which could make it difficult for officials to track asymptomatic spread of the virus and quell potential outbreaks. On average, close to 3,600 county residents were testeddaily for COVID-19 in the past week — compared to 4,500 each day, on average, at the start of the month, and 5,500 before Christmas.

“If people are being more selective about seeking out test and the (positivity) rate is still dropping, that’s a good indicator,” said Michael Thompson, associate chair of the Public Health Sciences department at UNC Charlotte.

“If you’re only picking people with COVID symptoms, you’d expect (the positivity rate) to be higher.”

Hospitalizations

Downward slope: The average number of coronavirus patients requiring hospital-level care dropped to 241 in the past week — the lowest census observed since early December. In February alone, hospitalizations decreased by 33%, according to an Observer analysis.

The county peaked at 540 hospitalizations, calculated across a 7-day moving average, one month ago.

The Metrolina Healthcare Preparedness Coalition, which encompasses Mecklenburg and surrounding counties, have hundreds of ventilators available, state health data show. Intensive care and inpatients hospital beds are also becoming more available with the post-holiday surge largely in the rear-view mirror.

Vaccines by county

Almost 1.2 million first doses of vaccines have been administered in North Carolina, DHHS reported as of Thursday. An additional 608,560 second doses have been given.

Here’s how counties in the Charlotte area compare, as of late Thursday. Officials warn some data can experience a 72-hour lag.

The data shows the percentage of the county population already vaccinated.

Mecklenburg

First doses: 8.4%

Second doses: 4.3%

Union

First doses: 8.3%

Second doses: 5%

Gaston

First doses: 9.4%

Second doses: 5.5%

Cabarrus

First doses: 8.6%

Second doses: 5%

Iredell

First doses: 9.9%

Second doses: 5.3%

Rowan

First doses: 9.4%

Second doses: 4.6%

Cleveland

First doses: 10.5%

Second doses: 3.8%

Lincoln

First doses: 9.7%

Second doses: 4.9%

Stanly

First doses: 11%

Second doses: 4.2%