Major heat warnings continue throughout Arizona, with possible rain ahead of Labor Day weekend
Major to extreme heat warnings remained in effect throughout the Phoenix area and most of southern Arizona through Wednesday night, but some relief may be on the way.
According to the National Weather Service, another scorcher was on tap for much of the Grand Canyon State and its lower deserts Wednesday, as temperatures were forecast to exceed 110 degrees, peaking at around 113 in Phoenix.
"We still have an excessive heat warning in effect, going with a high of 113 at Sky Harbor. Chance of measurable precipitation is in the single digits, not even 10% for the metro area," Phoenix office meteorologist Austin Jamison told The Arizona Republic.
At Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, a low of 93 degrees was recorded for Wednesday, which is around 11 degrees higher than normal. If that holds until midnight, it will set a new record warm low temperature for the day, surpassing the previous mark set in 2007 at 91, according to the weather service.
For some areas near southeast California and the Lower Colorado River Valley, heat indices may push close to 120 due to increased humidity in the region.
Entering Thursday, temperatures will begin to trend downward, sporting a projected high of 109, as thunderstorm chances tick up, possibly bringing those in Arizona a sweet reprieve from the heat prior to Labor Day weekend.
"During the afternoon, it looks about the 10-20% range and then the evening about 30%," Jamison said.
There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night across much of Arizona. The strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, blowing dust, and areas of heavy rain. #azwx pic.twitter.com/3WiFzBb4p8
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) August 29, 2023
Chances spill over and increase into Friday as well, as the high is slated to be just shy of 100 degrees at 99.
"The rain chances are about 40% in the morning, 60% in the afternoon and 50% in the evening," Jamison said.
Breaks from high heat in Phoenix? Climatology says so
On Tuesday, the weather service shared a post to X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, stating that the day's high of 116 had broken the previous daily record set in 2009 at 113 degrees.
However, a bold statement at the end of that post caught the eye of many.
"This will likely be the last day temperatures get this high until next summer," the weather service said on X.
At face value, this is incredible news. Finally being able to kick the longstanding heat wave and summer of broken records out the door sounds like a dream.
Not so fast.
"That's not a forecast, it's more climatology. It's not looking at an explicit forecast for the next 30 days," Jamison said. "It gets a lot more difficult to get to above 115 in September, 110 we can get."
There've been two instances of Valley temperatures reaching or exceeding 115 degrees in September, once in 1950 and once in 2020, according to weather service statistics.
According to Jamison, these are the two hottest days recorded in September ever. And while climatology "strongly" suggests it'll be a difficult task to overcome, the chances are never zero to repeat the feat.
"The odds don't favor exceeding 115 in September, and since we're looking at being a bit below that Wednesday and tomorrow and again through next week, it's probably unlikely we'll see it, but it's not a forecast," Jamison said.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona forecast: Major heat warnings continue ahead of Labor Day
