The major looming issue with Oladipo that will greatly impact Heat’s offseason flexibility

From a big picture perspective, the most important question involving Victor Oladipo isn’t whether he will rejoin the Heat’s rotation in Game 2 of the playoffs on Wednesday in Milwaukee, in the wake of Tyler Herro’s hand injury that is expected to sideline him for several weeks.

The more important question is whether he will surprisingly opt out of the second year of a two-year contract that would pay him $9.45 million next season. For the Heat, there are major financial and roster construction consequences riding on that decision.

The Heat obviously would never say this, but Oladipo would be doing the Heat a big favor by opting out, because it could save the organization tens of millions of dollars and create more roster flexibility under terms of the new labor agreement.

A quick synopsis on why Oladipo’s decision carries such gravity:

Next season, the NBA salary cap is projected to fall in the $134 million range, with a projected $162 million luxury tax threshold. Under the new labor deal, teams that are $17.5 million over the tax line (about $179 million next season) face not only a particularly onerous tax bill, but competitive restrictions as well.

Some of those restrictions — including not being able to use a $7 million taxpayer midlevel exception or sign a player on the buyout market — are expected to begin this summer and next season. Other restrictions involving trades begin in the 2024-25 season.

If Oladipo exercises his player option by the late June deadline and stays with the Heat, Miami would have $171 million committed to eight players for next season: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Herro, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic and Oladipo.

That doesn’t count Haywood Highsmith’s $1.9 million team option; the $3.5 million or so that’s due the 18th overall pick; and cap holds that would push Miami above that $179 million “second apron” level. So Oladipo opting in would make it very difficult to re-sign Max Strus or Gabe Vincent in free agency this summer, or sign any players to deals above the minimum.

If Oladipo opts out, the Heat would have $161.5 million in commitments, giving the team more flexibility to potentially re-sign Strus and/or Vincent or use its taxpayer midlevel exception without surpassing that second apron.

One scout said last month that Oladipo “would be crazy to opt out. At best, maybe he would get half a midlevel [$5.6 million] on the open market.”

So what could possibly motivate Oladipo to opt out?

If he plays in the postseason — beginning in Game 2 — and plays well, perhaps he will decide that he can snag a more lucrative multiyear deal (likely elsewhere) by opting out.

If coach Erik Spoelstra bypasses using him altogether even after Herro’s injury, perhaps that would make him more inclined to opt out.

Asked earlier this month if not being in the rotation could make him more motivated to opt out by the late June deadline, he said: “We’ll see when the year ends. I can’t see into the future.”

To my knowledge, the Heat front office has never told Spoelstra who to play or not to play. I would be very surprised if the financial consequences of Oladipo’s looming decision would affect any Heat rotation decisions in this series.

But the Heat’s best chances of achieving more financial flexibility this summer rest in part on Oladipo’s opt-out decision. And two scenarios that could possibly entice Oladipo to opt out are: 1) playing in the postseason and playing very well or 2) Not playing at all.

The worst outcome for the Heat would be Oladipo playing in postseason but playing poorly and then opting in this summer. In that circumstance, the Heat almost assuredly would need to figure out how to improve its team while facing burdensome limitations of the luxury tax and additional restrictions in the new labor deal.

Trading salaries would be an option. But achieving more financial flexibility through July trades would be challenging, even for a front office that has nimbly navigated the salary cap and luxury tax for years.

Oladipo lost his rotation spot after a seven-game stretch in early March in which he shot 36.5 percent from the field (23 for 63) with 17 turnovers.

For the season, he has averaged 10.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.1 turnovers, while shooting 39.7 percent from the field and 33.0 percent on three pointers.

He did not play in Game 1 of the Heat-Bucks playoff series and has not appeared in eight of the Heat’s past 13 games.