Malinowski-Kean NJ House race crucial for Republicans. Here's why

Earlier this year, pundits were predicting that Republicans would easily take control of the House of Representatives in the midterm election and had a good chance of wresting control of the Senate from the Democrats.

It seemed like a safe prediction at the time. Historically, the party in opposition to the President has tended to make substantial gains in midterm elections.

Adding to that was President Biden's mediocre approval ratings and a post-pandemic inflation that sent gas and food prices soaring.

Republican wins look less certain now, with factors like the Supreme Court Dobbs decision overturning a national right to abortion boosting Democratic odds. Biden's approval ratings have also gotten a boost and gasoline is about $1 per gallon cheaper than when political soothsayers were predicting a GOP landslide

"Three months ago, it looked like a category five hurricane was heading for President Biden and House Democrats," wrote Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

"Today, not only has it weakened to a tropical depression, but GOP primaries have thrown Democrats enough sandbags to give them a plausible, if still unlikely, scenario to stave off a Republican majority," he added.

Even the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that independents were tilting toward Democrats.

One of the key races in determining whether Democrats can maintain control of the House of Representatives is in Central Jersey where incumbent Democrat Tom Malinowski's reelection was seen as particularly vulnerable, after redistricting following the 2020 Census put more Republican communities in New Jersey’s 7^th District. USA Today has listed the race as one to watch to see if the GOP can dislodge Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

Many predicted Malinowski, an East Amwell resident who has served two terms in the House, was going to be swept away in the Republican wave by former state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., who narrowly lost to Malinowski in 2020.

Kean, a Westfield resident and son of the governor who served four decades ago, was seen as a formidable opponent, a moderate Republican in one of the country's most affluent districts where 54.1% of the residents are college graduates.

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Registered Republicans are 33% of the district's registered voters with Democrats at 30%. The race will be decided by the 35% of the electorate who are unaffiliated. The district gave Trump an 1% edge in the 2020 Presidential race.

Another major factor in the outcome is which side will get out its followers to vote. Many believe that abortion will be the issue to energize Democrats and independents to go to the polls.

The Cook Political Report and the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia lists the race as "Lean Republican." FiveThirtyEight rates the election as a toss-up, giving Kean a 49.4%-to-47.8% edge.

Malinowski has waged an aggressive campaign, crisscrossing the district and holding online town hall meetings. He has also launched a barrage of cable television commercials painting Kean as a loyal Trump supporter and voting against state legislation to protect the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade abortion ruling.

Kean's campaign has not been as aggressive, making fewer public appearances and concentrating on Republican communities. His commercials focus on inflation and blame Malinowski because he followed Speaker Pelosi and voted for "wasteful spending."

Kean’s campaign’s major planks include ending wasteful spending to reduce inflation, promoting American industry to open up supply chains, supporting middle class tax relief and backing energy independence to lower gasoline prices.

Malinowski's campaign is focused on protecting women's rights, placing a temporary windfall profits tax on oil companies, lowering the cost of prescription drugs and restoring the SALT Deduction on property taxes.

Contributing: Dylan Wells of USA Today

Email: mdeak@mycentraljersey.com

Mike Deak is a reporter for mycentraljersey.com. To get unlimited access to his articles on Somerset and Hunterdon counties, please subscribe or activate your digital account.

This article originally appeared on MyCentralJersey.com: NJ elections 2022: Malinowski, Kean House race crucial for GOP