In his first Manatee-Sarasota appearance, economist Jerry D. Parrish brought his analysis and insights to a full house at our 2023 Economic Forecast Breakfast, presented by Hancock Whitney Bank.

Parrish has more than a decade of experience in analyzing Florida’s economy and consulting on policy. He is the chief economist and director of state and local policy analysis at the Florida Institute of Government at Florida State University. His many years of experience in the private sector in management roles at international manufacturing companies adds to the relevance of the information he shared with us.

First, Parrish said he believes Florida will experience a recession, but he doesn’t think the effects will be deep or broad. He supports the Fed’s move to continue raising interest rates until inflation subsides. He believes this is the best way to keep the impact short-lived.

Florida’s job growth since the pandemic has been very strong, with a 5.4% increase in nonfarm jobs since January 2020. For the first time, Florida has more non-farm jobs than New York, edging out the Empire State by a hair at more than 9.5 million. Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the nation. It does not include farmworkers, private household employees, or nonprofit organization employees.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provided the following data on job recovery following the pandemic. The nation’s employment levels recovered in August 2022, while Florida fared better than the rest of the country with recovery in October 2021. Manatee County’s recovery in June 2021 preceded both Florida and the nation. The Bradenton area’s recovery was a full year ahead of the rest of the country, demonstrating the business-friendly environment that new and expanding businesses appreciate in our community.

And while 15 Florida counties lost population between 2010 and 2021, Manatee County was in the top 10 for population growth rate. Parrish does not expect Manatee County to continue that rapid pace of population growth looking ahead.

Parrish also shared data on net migration to Manatee County. The data, from 2015-2019, show more than 7,000 new residents arriving from other states, with New York, Ohio, Connecticut, Virginia and Massachusetts topping the origins list. Net migration to Manatee County from other Florida locations was more than triple the out-of-state figure. Parrish said that 22,466 residents arrived from other Florida counties, with Sarasota, Hillsborough and Pinellas topping the list.

The developers of Lakewood Ranch have more recent numbers to share on in-migration to their rapidly growing master-planned community. For 2021 and 2022, top feeder markets were the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and California. While Floridians account for more in-migration than out-of-staters, the folks at Lakewood Ranch say that’s because the households moved to Florida within the past two years and were renting in surrounding counties. They chose Lakewood Ranch when they were ready to buy a home, largely for the schools, we are told.

Interestingly, Lakewood Ranch is seeing multigenerational moves with young families including seniors in their living arrangement. Also, cash buyers abound. Between 40-60% of new home purchases in the Ranch are cash deals.

Between Parrish’s data analysis and the insights from Lakewood Ranch, Manatee County’s popularity as a place to live, work and play holds promise for our economic future. To download a pdf of Parrish’s presentation, please visit our website at BradentonAreaEDC.com.

Sharon Hillstrom is president and chief executive officer of the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corp. (BradentonAreaEDC.com). She may be contacted at info@bradentonareaedc.com or 941-803-9036.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: SHARON HILLSTROM: Economist shares insights for Bradenton Area EDC