Manitoba's Kinew seeks to oust government, become Canada's only First Nations premier

By Rod Nickel

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Voters in Manitoba are poised next Tuesday to make a First Nations person premier for the first time in Canada's history, with polls and political experts indicating that Wab Kinew's New Democratic Party (NDP) has pulled ahead of the incumbent Progressive Conservatives (PC).

Of 10 provinces, Manitoba has the highest proportion of its population, 18.1%, that is Indigenous, a term that includes First Nations, Metis and Inuit peoples, according to Canada's 2021 census. Indigenous peoples have higher levels of poverty and lower life expectancy than other Canadians.

"This could be a really critical moment as we see (First Nations) leaders taking their roles in such a momentous way," said Kelly Saunders, associate professor of political science at Brandon University, of Kinew's potential win.

Manitoba had a Metis premier in the late 1800s and the Nunavut territory currently has an Inuk premier. Kinew, 41 and a former television journalist, would be the first Canadian premier who identifies as First Nations.

Of decided and leaning voters, 49% plan to vote for the NDP, according to a Probe Research poll conducted from Sept. 7-18, up from 41% in June. The Conservatives slipped three percentage points to 38%.

The Conservatives, currently led by Manitoba's first female premier, Heather Stefanson, 53, have ruled the western farming, mining and manufacturing province since 2016. They have promised to cut income tax and make the cost of living more affordable, while also pledging to be tough on crime.

The NDP has focused on improving healthcare by hiring hundreds of doctors and nurses.

"The PCs have run a stop-start kind of campaign and not quite gained momentum," said Allen Mills, a retired professor of political science at University of Winnipeg. "I think the NDP is going to get a majority."

Manitoba's legislature has 57 seats and a party needs to win 29 to win a majority and govern without another party's support. Before the campaign began, the PCs held 35 seats, the NDP 18 and the Liberals three. There is one vacancy.

The Conservatives traditionally dominate rural districts, while the NDP wins in the north and the parties compete closely in Winnipeg. Experts expect suburban Winnipeg districts and a handful of others across Manitoba to be the battlegrounds that determine the winner.

(Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba; Editing by Denny Thomas and Marguerita Choy)