How many games will Kentucky football win? Rounding up local reporters’ predictions.

Oddsmakers have established familiar expectations for Kentucky football this season.

In May, BetOnline established the over/under for Kentucky’s regular season win total at 7 ½. That number has since dropped to seven, Kentucky’s win total from 2022 and a number the Wildcats have hit in six of the last seven seasons.

Whether you view that over/under number as too high or too low probably depends on your opinion of Kentucky’s 2023 schedule.

The Wildcats ease into the season with September non-conference games against Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Akron before an SEC opener at Vanderbilt. There is a path to a 5-0 start if Kentucky can extend its winning streak to three games against Florida at home on Sept. 30.

But the second half of the schedule is far more difficult. Kentucky must play at No. 1 Georgia on Oct 7. The Wildcats host No. 12 Tennessee on Oct. 28 and No. 4 Alabama on Nov. 11. Three of the final four games are on the road, at Mississippi State, South Carolina and Louisville.

So how many games will Kentucky win in 2023? The Herald-Leader polled local reporters for their regular season win total predictions and an upset game to watch. You can see those responses below.

Herald-Leader staff predictions

John Clay: My prediction is Kentucky will go 9-3. Optimistic that the return of Liam Coen, the arrival of Devin Leary and the continued excellence of Brad White’s defense will return the Cats back to double-digit wins.

Cameron Drummond: 8-4 record. Kentucky bounces back from a disappointing 2022 campaign with a solid, season-long showing led by Leary. Despite a three-game losing streak spanning the Tennessee, Mississippi State and Alabama games, UK rebounds with two big-time wins to close the regular season, starting with an underdog win on the road at South Carolina.

Jon Hale: 9-3. I actually think seven wins might be the least likely outcome for this team. If the offensive line was fixed and can protect Leary, I think this team might be better than the 2021 squad. If it wasn’t, it will be difficult to keep Leary healthy all season and Kentucky might need to beat Louisville to reach a bowl game. I think Kentucky beats Tennessee at home but continues its recent futility at Mississippi State before the Bulldogs drop off the schedule as an annual opponent next year.

Mark Story: I picked Kentucky 8-4, 4-4 SEC. I really like Kentucky’s team. I don’t think the way the UK schedule sets up sequentially yields itself to a “breakthrough,” 10-win type of season. Picked Kentucky to beat Tennessee. Anytime you pick UK over UT in football, you are allowing hope to triumph over experience (hat tip to Samuel Johnson). But with the Cats entering the game off an open week and the Vols off a game at Alabama, it really does “set up” great for Kentucky.

Ben Roberts: 7-5. There’s a lot of intrigue and potential around this team, but there are plenty of questions, too. If the offensive line gets back in gear and the other pieces of that unit click under Coen, the realistic ceiling is at least a couple wins higher. In a schedule with several could-go-either-way games, South Carolina stands out as a prime opportunity at an important point in the season. (Though it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cats end up as favorites going into Columbia.)

Kentucky media predictions

Gary Graves (Associated Press): I’m predicting 8-4 with Tennessee as the possible upset game to watch. Coen’s return as OC and the additions of Leary and running backs could provide the offensive punch that was lacking last year.

Dick Gabriel (Big Blue Insider): I’m going with a conservative 8-4 but that could conceivably jump to 9-3 with a win at home over Tennessee, which will be a major challenge, or Mississippi State in Starkville, which may be even tougher — as it’s seemed to be for the past few seasons.

Jeff Drummond (Cats Illustrated): 8-4. Under Stoops, the Cats typically win one you did not see coming and lay an egg in one you may have expected UK to win. On the triumphant side, I think that one will be Tennessee this year.

Justin Rowland (Cats Illustrated): I’ll pick 8-4. Because of how difficult the schedule is this seems like the safest choice, but I could see them winning nine and finishing second in the East in a best-case scenario.

Darrell Bird (The Cats’ Pause): 10-2. A strong 5-0 starts puts Kentucky rolling to 10 regular season victories. Beating Tennessee in Lexington is the key to it all, and keeping Leary healthy, of course.

Aaron Gershon (The Cats’ Pause): Kentucky will have a chance to win every game it plays outside of Georgia and Alabama, in my opinion. However, it’s hard to predict a victory in Starkville when it hasn’t happened since 2008 or over Tennessee, as the Volunteers have simply owned Kentucky for over three decades. While Kentucky’s offense should have the firepower to keep up with the Volunteers this season, which could lead to an upset, I cannot quite get around to predicting it to happen. Prediction: 8-4.

Samantha Money (Kentucky Kernel): 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina. Upset game to watch will be Tennessee because the Wildcats will be looking for revenge after that gross 44-6 game last year. It will easily be the loudest game at Kroger Field this season.

Cole Parke (Kentucky Kernel): I predict Kentucky will finish the regular season 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. I think Georgia and Alabama speak for themselves and Tennessee has always seemed to have Kentucky’s number. I would also understand one picking Mississippi State as a loss because of the nature of that back-and-forth series, but with the offseason tragedy I don’t expect the Bulldogs to get the win. Kentucky also, as of late, has done fine at South Carolina and against Missouri. That said, any of those three could be potential upset games for Kentucky. I also think, depending on health, Louisville could be a game to watch.

Matt Jones (Kentucky Sports Radio): 8-4. Cats win at least one big one but likely drop the Tennessee and Mississippi State games.

Adam Luckett (Kentucky Sports Radio): 8-4. Kentucky beats Tennessee at home. Cats get off to a fast 5-0 start but have letdown performances after huge games with Georgia and Alabama. A fifth consecutive win over Louisville gets UK to a New Year’s Day Bowl in Tampa.

Nick Roush (Kentucky Sports Radio): 8-4, upset of Tennessee. Brad White is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country, but Josh Heupel’s offense has worked wonders on him for two years. He won’t be able to for a third year in a row. I think Kentucky has the personnel to pull off a magical 10- or 11-win season, but the loaded back half of the schedule gives me pause.

Keith Taylor (Kentucky Today): 8-4. Upset game to me will be the final SEC game at South Carolina. I think there’s no reason why UK can’t get eight wins out of this schedule. The key is beating the teams they should beat and pull off a possible upset.

Dylan Ballard (Sea of Blue): 8-4. I believe the Wildcats are set for a big-time improvement from last season’s 7-6 record. In large part due to the return of Coen and transfer of Leary. The schedule is quite a bit tougher this season, adding the likes of Alabama and road trips to Mississippi State and South Carolina. So my predicted record may not be much of an improvement, but expect a big improvement of the on-field product.

Larry Vaught (Vaught’s Views): 9-3: The head says 8-4 with losses to Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi State, but the heart says a win over Mississippi State after listening to former UK defensive back Van Hiles. And why I think UK could and should beat Tennessee, history still makes that an upset in my book.

Mitch Brown (WDKY): 9-3. Potential upset: Alabama With multiple impact veterans on both sides of the ball, youth stepping into key roles and the return of Liam Coen to call the offense, Kentucky’s floor is higher than last year. If they stay healthy, they have a team that can and should be competitive in all of their games.

Michael Epps (WDKY): 9-3. Coen’s return is going to make these Kentucky games a lot more fun to watch this year, but it’s still hard to see this team being good enough to topple Alabama and Georgia. I think the Tennessee game is going to be another tough one in Kroger Field, that could be your upset but I see the Cats losing that game, or trade it for a loss at either Mississippi State/South Carolina to get you to three losses. Solid bowl game gives you a chance to get your second 10 win season in three years.

Kent Spencer (WHAS): 8-4. I think Kentucky gets a rivalry win over Tennessee, which will probably be considered an upset. Leary and Coen will be a very good match as long as the offensive line improves as expected. Kentucky needs to get back to being physical up front on both sides of the ball.

Kinsey Lee (WLEX): 9-3 with an upset of Tennessee. Tennessee might be ranked No. 2 in the SEC East, but they still have a lot to prove. They lost a lot at the skill positions, and Joe Milton is kind of in the same boat as Leary — trying to prove himself. Tennessee is coming off the Alabama game and on top of that it’s at Kentucky. I’m sure the Cats aren’t looking to repeat the same score from last year so don’t be surprised if that scoreboard favors UK when that clock hits zero.

Dominique Yates (WLKY): 9-3. Possible upset game: Tennessee. The Vols are breaking in a new QB this year which is something to watch. I don’t think any team can really “slow down” UT’s offense, but if the defense can get that group off the field a few times, the offense can stand toe-to-toe — with a healthy Leary and improved offensive line — the Wildcats have a shot.

Chris Bolton (WTVQ): I have the Cats finishing 8-4 (losses to Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama and Tennessee). Possible upset game is the Missouri game. I feel confident the defense will be solid. The season comes down to the Big Blue Wall’s improvement and Leary’s health.

Hallie DeVore (WTVQ): I want to say 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina. But would pick Tennessee as an upset for UK. That game is at home, and I think UK and the fans will come out with unbeatable energy. Tennessee could come in exhausted from the week before against Alabama, considering the events from last year. I also think UK’s defense will gel enough in time to contain Tennessee’s offense.

Forrest Tucker (WTVQ): 9-3 (5-3 SEC). Mark Stoops has a team that is a conceivable second- or third-place finisher in the East. I think they can handle business versus top contender Tennessee, but I’m skeptical of how the Cats will do away in Starkville and Columbia. An upset game to watch for is Alabama even though that’s crazy talk. I think Nick Saban’s team will change quarterbacks at least once this year. A Kroger Field crowd and robust UK defense could rattle the Crimson Tide.

2023 UK football schedule

Home games in all capital letters. Remaining kickoff times to be announced later.

Sept. 2: BALL STATE, Noon

Sept. 9: EASTERN KENTUCKY, 3 p.m.

Sept. 16: AKRON, 7:30 p.m.

Sept. 23: At Vanderbilt

Sept. 30: FLORIDA

Oct. 7: At Georgia

Oct. 14: MISSOURI

Oct. 21: Off week

Oct. 28: TENNESSEE

Nov. 4: At Mississippi State

Nov. 11: ALABAMA

Nov. 18: At South Carolina

Nov. 25: At Louisville

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