Here’s how many people have voted early in Hampton Roads

A little more than a week into early voting, a small fraction of local registered voters have cast ballots ahead of the November elections.

Among the six most populous cities in Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach had the highest turnout, with 5,842 ballots cast as of Monday, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. That equates to a 1.79% turnout thus far of the city’s 326,578 registered voters.

Norfolk had the lowest percentage of registered voter turnout, with 894 votes cast, equating to 0.64% of the city’s 139,510 registered voters.

Elections experts say it’s difficult to draw conclusions about overall turnout from early voting numbers, but as popularity burgeoned with the coronavirus pandemic, they expect early voting to continue to grow. A little more than a third of the 3.2 million votes cast in Virginia’s 2021 general elections were cast through early voting or absentee ballot.

Early voting began Sept. 23. Statewide, voters cast 89,786 ballots as of Monday, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Of that, 52,181 ballots were cast in-person and 37,605 by mail. Another 268,737 people have applied for mail-in voting.

The breakdown for local voting totals is as follows:

• Chesapeake: 1,602 votes cast, 0.91% of registered voters

• Hampton: 1,132 votes cast, 1.13% of registered voters

• Newport News: 1,464 votes cast, 1.18% of registered voters

• Norfolk: 894 votes cast, 0.64% of registered voters

• Portsmouth: 796 votes cast, 1.18% of registered voters

• Virginia Beach: 5,842 votes cast, 1.79% of registered voters

The difference in voter turnout among localities often has to do with socioeconomic factors, according to Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.

A native of Norfolk, Sabato said Norfolk has a higher poverty rate, a higher percentage of minorities and people with less-flexible jobs compared to Virginia Beach which has more high-income people and retirees with more free time to pay attention to the elections and get out to the polls.

Turnout in the Nov. 8 election is not expected to be as robust as in the 2021 gubernatorial election because there are no statewide offices on the ballot this year. The Virginia Public Access Project reported that as of Sept. 29, about 13,000 fewer in-person ballots were cast in this election compared to last year.

Attempts to compare this year’s early voting trends to that of past elections are futile because of the events of the last few years, including expanded voter access and the coronavirus pandemic, Sabato said. In Virginia, Gov. Ralph Northam in April 2020 expanded the early voting period to allow ballots to be cast 45 days before an election without a stated reason, and removed the requirement that voters show a photo ID.

Voter behavior nationwide has likely changed for good as a result of the pandemic, according to Sabato, in favor of early voting and mail-in ballots.

“If people aren’t used to a procedure they’re probably not going to adapt and use it because it requires them learning things,” Sabato said. “But people were forced during the pandemic, just for their own health and safety and their family’s health and safety, to seek out new ways of doing things ... voting was one of them.”

The totals at this point don’t mean much in relation to the outcomes, Sabato said, urging voters to take campaign pronouncements about “big wins in early voting” with a grain of salt. Most early voting is done in late October.

Sabato said he expects there to be “healthy” turnout in the competitive races for the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Norfolk and the Eastern Shore, and 7th Congressional District, which includes areas to the west of Richmond. But he said voter totals will be down overall because of the lack of any statewide races this year.

Sabato recalled his younger days when he had to miss all his college classes to drive four hours to vote, arriving with two minutes to spare, because the absentee process was so limited.

“It was ridiculous and we recognized that. We progressed as a society, so I would say be grateful for all these alternatives,” he said.

The deadline to register to vote or update an existing registration is Oct. 17 — 5 p.m. in person and 11:59 p.m. online. To register, go to www.elections.virginia.gov/registration/how-to-register/ or contact your local board of elections.

Gavin Stone, 757-712-4806, gavin.stone@virginimedia.com