Colorado State is returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013, earning the No. 6 ranking in the South region this year. The Rams will play No. 11 Michigan on Thursday.
The matchup between the two seeds have historically led to frequent upsets, most recently in last year's tourney, when two out of the four matchups were won by the lower seed.,
This century, an upset between these two seeds has occurred in all but one tournament (2004).
Here's a breakdown of the odds to guide you as you fill out this year's bracket.
6 vs. 11 odds compared to other March Madness upsets
Since 1985, No. 11 seeds have beaten No. 6 teams 54 times, or in 37.5% of games.
It's not as common as the No. 10 seed winning, with those teams winning their opening game 57 times, or 39.5% of the time. That's just behind the slight edge No. 9 seeds hold over No. 8 seeds. The No. 9 team has a win percentage of 50.69%.
Once you drop to the bottom four seeds, the odds of winning the first game of the tournament begin to decline even further.
The No. 12 seeds have won 51 times, or 35.4% of games. No. 13 seeds have won just 21.5% of the time, or 31 games. No. 14 seeds have won 15.3% of the time, or 22 games, and No. 15 seeds have won 6.3% of the time, or 9 games.
The No. 16 seed has beaten the top seed in their region just once, when University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) took down Virginia by a whopping 74-54 score in 2018. Virginia bounced back in the 2019 tournament to win the national championship.
Colorado State has never been ranked this high in the NCAA Tournament before
The highest previous ranking the Rams had in the tournament was in their last appearance in 2013. With a No. 8 seeding, CSU beat Missouri only to lose to No. 1 seed and eventual national champion Louisville.
In 1989, the Rams advanced out of the first round when they were ranked No. 10, upsetting Florida before losing to No. 2 Syracuse.
In three tournaments, CSU lost in the first round of the tournament: in 2012 when they were ranked as No. 11 seed, in 2003 as a No. 14 seed, and in 1990 as a No. 10 seed.
This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Colorado State vs Michigan prediction based on odds No. 11 beats No. 6