Mapping Ohio State’s path to a potential spot in the College Football Playoff

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Ohio State is sitting on the sideline during conference championship week for the third straight year and does not control its playoff destiny.

Instead of playing for a Big Ten title, the Buckeyes will be rooting for disruption and the opening of a path to the College Football Playoff.

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They’re among four one-loss teams that remain in contention for a playoff spot. Joining them are Oregon, Texas, and Alabama. Among those, the Associated Press and USA Today coaches polls placed the Buckeyes behind the Ducks but ahead of the Longhorns and Crimson Tide.

On Tuesday night, the playoff committee could follow suit and place Ohio State among the first two teams out of the playoff in its rankings. The expected top four will be the last unbeaten teams: Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State. Each of them joins Oregon, Texas, and Alabama playing for a conference title this weekend.

Last year’s path to the playoff materialized for Ohio State thanks to USC losing the Pac-12 title, but this year’s road is significantly more convoluted. Here is a breakdown of how the Buckeyes could get into the playoff.

Florida State loses the ACC

The undefeated team with the most on the line during Championship Saturday is Florida State, which looks likely to be ranked last among the four unbeaten teams.

The Seminoles will take on Louisville on Saturday night in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game in Charlotte, North Carolina. They’ve cruised through most of the season behind quarterback Jordan Travis, but the star suffered a serious leg injury two weeks ago, ending his season.

Junior Tate Rodemaker is likely to start against a Louisville team that has had its best season in 11 years. The Cardinals’ most impressive wins came against N.C. State, Notre Dame and Miami, with Florida State fresh off a tough 24-15 win over Florida.

With the committee never leaving out an unbeaten team from the playoff, a Florida State win should put it in its first playoff since 2014. A Louisville upset would open the door for a one-loss team, including Ohio State.

What about Texas?

The Buckeyes being ranked above Texas could be an indication the playoff committee will do the same. Even if they are, the Longhorns could play their way into a semifinal.

Texas will be in Arlington, Texas, for Saturday afternoon’s Big 12 championship game against Oklahoma State. The Longhorns are led by QB Quinn Ewers, who transferred from Ohio State after the 2021 season and has helped the team to a nearly flawless season that includes a 34-24 road win over Alabama.

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An upset win from Oklahoma State is the most ideal from a Buckeyes perspective because that will knock out any chance for Texas to make the playoff. A Longhorns win doesn’t necessarily guarantee them their first playoff spot, with the committee potentially rating Ohio State higher on the fact its loss was to Michigan compared with Texas’ loss to Oklahoma.

As in 2014 when Ohio State won the Big Ten title 59-0 over Wisconsin, a team can play its way into the playoff via a conference title. The same scenario could occur if Texas beats Oklahoma State.

Georgia wins the SEC

Another one-loss team that sits with an outside shot to make the playoff is Alabama. After losing to Texas early, the Crimson Tide have rolled through the rest of the regular season and have set up a showdown with top-ranked Georgia.

This is the second time in three seasons Georgia and Alabama are meeting in Atlanta for the Southeastern Conference championship game. The two-time defending national champion, Georgia has won 29 straight games and last lost in the 2021 SEC championship to the Crimson Tide.

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A Georgia win will keep things simple for the playoff committee: Bulldogs earn the top-seed, Alabama doesn’t make it, and the Buckeyes have a shot.

If the Crimson Tide pull off the upset, things become incredibly complex with Alabama having a chance to get in with an SEC title and Georgia still being alive with just one loss. If you add a Texas win with a Bama win, it would be difficult for the committee to put in the Crimson Tide without Texas — the team Alabama lost to. Alabama winning the SEC could put themselves, 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Georgia in the playoff.

All things considered, the worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes is Alabama and Texas winning.

Who are the locks?

An argument can be made that none of the eight teams in contention is guaranteed a place in the playoff. The Pac-12 title game winner looks to be a lock. Georgia seems it can qualify even with a loss, and Michigan might be in the same boat.

After its 30-24 win over Ohio State, the Wolverines will play Iowa in the Big Ten championship on Saturday night in Indianapolis. Of all the conference title games, this one is the most lopsided, with Michigan expected to win big. The Wolverines will have coach Jim Harbaugh back on the sideline after his suspension, and Iowa is notorious for having one of the weakest offenses in college football.

For many, Iowa beating Michigan is unforeseen, but if the Hawkeyes became Big Ten champions, it could be enough to knock out the Wolverines and enhance the team’s lack of a strong schedule in the committee’s eyes.

Friday night’s Pac-12 championship is essentially a win-and-in matchup between unbeaten Washington and Oregon. The Huskies would be undefeated with a win, and a Ducks win would make up for their earlier loss Washington.

Oregon’s edge to qualify is also due to the strong possibility it will be ranked above Ohio State. Another spanner in the works for OSU could be the committee’s consideration of a one-loss Washington team over the Buckeyes.

With the Ducks chances, the Buckeyes most ideal turn of events would be the following five teams winning: Washington, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Louisville, and Michigan. In that scenario, OSU looks likely to qualify as the only one-loss team ahead of a 12-1 Florida State team.

What if there are no upsets?

If this weekend’s games to go according to plan, with Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State winning, all three would get in alongside the Pac-12 champion, Washington or Oregon.

Ohio State would be left out of the playoff and would look poised to play in the Orange Bowl against Louisville. That game is scheduled for Dec. 30 at 4 p.m.

The last four-team College Football Playoff will begin on Jan. 1, with the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl serving as sites for the semifinals. The national championship game will be on Jan. 8 in Houston.

After this season, the playoff will expand to 12 teams, which make these complex paths for Ohio State and others history. In the new format, even with one loss, the Buckeyes would sit comfortably knowing they would be picked as an at-large team no matter who wins the conference title games.

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