Marcus Freeman weighs in on ESPN’s FPI
Love them or hate them, analytics are only becoming more and more a part of sports and sports coverage. Don’t believe me? On3 unveiled a new mathematical formula to predict where a bunch of teenage males are going to to play their college football.
Another number-based method out there is one we often look to: the ESPN Football Power Index. ESPN’s summary of what FPI does is: FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
On Wednesday, we took a look at what FPI said about Notre Dame and one of the numbers that certainly stood out was that the formula gives the Irish just over a 16% chance of winning at Ohio State to open the year.
During his media tour Thursday, Marcus Freeman was asked about what his thoughts were in regards to the FPI calling the Irish such a great underdog against the Buckeyes and his response belongs on the front of a T-shirt.
“The No. 1 thing we do is we don’t pay attention to the FPI” said Freeman on ESPN’s “This Just In.”
The formula may give a base to how good or bad a team theoretically should be, but when it kept ranking Texas and Florida in the top 15 last year despite the fact they seemingly found ways to lose game after game, I lost pretty much all of my respect for the formula.
Yet each Saturday this fall you can bet the bottom line on any game shown on the ESPN network will include whatever the FPI claims a team’s chance at winning is.
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