Mariners should go all-in on dealing for Soto

Jul. 28—The last postseason game for the Seattle Mariners was October 22, 2001, a 12-3 loss to the New York Yankees.

Kyle Lewis was 6 years old, Juan Soto was three days from his third birthday and Julio Rodriguez had yet to hit his first birthday.

That could be the outfield for the Mariners if they truly wanted to go all-in on ending the playoff drought.

Seattle currently is sitting in the second wild card spot in the American League, 1/2 game behind Toronto for the top wild card spot and three games ahead of Cleveland. The Mariners find themselves 10 games behind Houston for the American League West Division lead with a big four-game set starting today.

With the new playoff format, just ending the drought and making the postseason will not be enough for the Mariners. Currently, they would play a best-of-3 series with the Blue Jays in the wild card round, with all three games taking place at the Rogers Centre.

If the city of Seattle wants to see playoff baseball at T-Mobile Park in October, the team has to finish in the top wild card spot or catch Houston for the division.

The Mariners have won 17 of their past 20 games but still have work to do. Making a splash for the Home Run Derby champion could be exactly what the team needs.

It will cost Seattle much of its farm system to pull off a deal with the Washington Nationals for Soto, their star outfielder. But it is well worth it.

At 23, Soto already has been on a World Series-winning team, been named to two All-Star games, finished in the top five of the National League MVP race and just recently outdueled Rodriguez to win the Home Run Derby. He has a career batting average of .291 and an on-base percentage of .426.

Many people will point to the 15-year, $440 million offer Soto rejected from the Nationals as an argument that Seattle could not afford the young star from the Dominican Republic. They would be wrong.

The Mariners would have the rest of this year and two full seasons of team control before having to worry about a long-term deal with Soto. If the two parties could not reach an agreement, the team could trade him in a future deadline and recoup some prospect capital.

Let's say Seattle does sign him to a new contract that makes him the highest paid position player per year (who currently is Mike Trout at $33.2 million). You only have to look at the money coming off the books to make up the difference.

Recent rental Carlos Santana ($10.5 million) and Mitch Haniger ($7.75 million) are free agents at the end of the season. Chris Flexen, who is 7-8 with a 3.75 ERA, ($3.05 million) and Ken Giles ($5.25 million) each have team options for 2023.

Combined, the four players alone are $26.55 million coming off the books at the end of the year. That leaves around $7 million to pay for a superstar young talent that has proven himself on the biggest stage.

Soto played against the Houston Astros in the 2019 World Series at just the age of 20. In that series, he had three home runs, seven RBI with a .438 on-base percentage.

According to FanGraphs, Seattle is 22nd in team payroll at $113 million, with only $67 locked up for 2023. The Mariners had a payroll of $117 million in 2008 when the team finished last in the AL West with a 61-101 record.

Money is not the issue here, so it must be the love of the future and not wanting to part ways with the top prospects. But for every Julio Rodriguez there is a Nick Neidert. Who is Nick Neidert?

Exactly.

According to Baseball America, Neidert was No. 4 on the Mariners' top prospect list in 2017. The right-handed pitcher was traded that offseason, along with two other prospects, for Dee Gordon.

In fact, out of the top 10 names on that prospect list just five years ago only two still are with Seattle: Lewis and Haniger.

Seven of the 10 prospects were traded, four without playing for the Mariners, and one never making it to the majors.

Prospects are complete unknowns. They can be highly touted, but until they prove they can do it under the brightest of lights they are just lottery tickets.

Jarred Kelenic, who is tossed in almost every mock-trade if Seattle were to trade for Soto, was one of those "can't miss prospects."

There was great fanfare for the left-handed outfielder before he batted .173 in 423 at-bats the past two seasons. Kelenic, who hit just .140 in 30 games in the majors this year, currently plays for the Mariners' Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma, where he is batting .296 with 11 home runs in 50 games.

The question Seattle has to ask itself: What is worth more, stashing a few lottery tickets or breaking a 21-season playoff drought?

Isbelle can be reached at sports@lmtribune.com, (208) 848-2268 or on Twitter @RandyIsbelle.