Mark Davis: Indictment is great for Trump politically — for now. But will it last? | Opinion

On a long list of political and historic firsts in the biography of Donald Trump, add the following: No politician has ever derived a greater benefit from an indictment.

As he seeks a return to the White House, his current legal challenges have boosted his poll numbers and, by his own campaign’s estimation, generated more than $7 million in contributions over the last few days. This sparks understandable curiosity as to why this is happening and how long it can last.

The first question is easy. Trump has successfully spun the narrative that he is being singled out by a politically fueled prosecution. A base of supporters already prone to accept this version of events watched his arraignment Tuesday and waited for details of the charges. At day’s end, nothing had arisen to shake that conclusion, clearing the way for Trump to assert moving forward that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s efforts are a corrupt grudge in response to the conservative victories that have triggered Democrats from local courthouses to Congress.

But poll numbers and political contributions can have a variety of motivations nearly a year before the first primaries. At their root, they can obviously indicate a specific desire for Trump to be returned to the White House on Inauguration Day 2025. But in the tumult of the current moment, support can take the shape of a temporary desire to rally around the target of an unjust persecution.

Millions of Republicans have no idea how the next year will go as Trump faces a likely challenge from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and a growing field of other less popular rivals. But here in April 2023, many believe that this indictment reeks of selective prosecution, and they are glad to make a statement to that effect by supporting the Trump campaign.

Even Republicans who have soured on Trump over the years have gone to great lengths to share their belief that he is the victim of a rogue district attorney. From former attorney General Bill Barr to former political rivals like Mitt Romney, the chorus grows louder that whether one admires or wearies of Trump, a vendetta is a vendetta. Ironically, the most divisive candidate in recent Republican history has found a way to unite the party.

But for how long? The months ahead will contain waves of legal maneuvering, which could result in anything from a complete dismissal of the charges to the spectacle of the most anticipated trial since O.J. Simpson’s. Along that road, Trump can be expected to enjoy continuing support from his loyal base, but if we are still wallowing in legal quicksand as the early primaries approach, some voters may decide that while they empathize with Trump as he battles a partisan prosecution, the more pressing question concerns who can win in November 2024.

That answer may or may not be a candidate who has been fending off a legal nightmare while others have addressed the usual slate of political issues without such distractions.

If the indictment is as threadbare as some of its critics assert, Trump may never go to trial, cruising into the 2024 primaries lofted by a win over his tormentors. But if it takes a long, torturous year to sort through these charges as a largely hostile media culture gladly wallows in its tawdry elements, today’s bursts of support could fade into memory — not because Trump voters have decided he’s guilty or that the indictment had merit, but because they assess him as a damaged commodity in a general election.

Trump’s Democratic enemies are of a mixed mind. Many are reveling in this indictment because they think it ruins him in the political marketplace and they have lusted to see him brought low. Others foresaw the current boost in support, expect it to last and hope that it will, on the premise that a battered Trump will be easier to beat in 2024 than an unstained fresh face such as DeSantis.

There is no way to know what Trump’s political stock will be more than a year from now — partly because we have no idea how voters will be feeling as the primaries play out, but mostly because we have no idea what course this prosecution will take.

In the deep-blue environment of New York City, we could see Trump tried and convicted. Or, the whole case could be derailed in short order as judges dismantle it for lack of merit. Plenty of results between those two extremes are also plausible.

One thing we do know: Trump will ride the emotions of reaction to his indictment for as long as possible. In the short term, it will probably pay dividends in the polls and campaign coffers. But the duration of the “indictment bump” will depend on what happens in the courts, how Trump interacts with his eventual GOP rivals and ultimately, Republican voters’ appetite for the drama about to unfold.

Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on Twitter: @markdavis.