Mark Robinson could be North Carolina’s first Black governor. Can he win over Black voters?

Mark Robinson could become the first Black person to be elected North Carolina governor.

But his quest to make state political history may not rely on the support of people who look like him. Robinson’s extreme rhetoric in public statements and social media posts have been widely condemned by other North Carolina political leaders and turned off Black voters.

Robinson, elected the state’s first Black lieutenant governor in 2020, suggested Martin Luther King Jr. was a communist, that the Civil Rights Movement compromised “free choice,” and he himself was “not African-American.”

Robinson also is known for controversial comments about women, LGBTQ+ people and Muslims. He’s been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and is perceived to have modeled his campaign aesthetic after him.

“His ignorance is beyond reproach – we cannot have him represent North Carolina in the governor’s office,” North Carolina Legislative Black Caucus Chairman Kelly Alexander, a Democrat, said last May in reaction to what Democrats considered “attacks on the Civil Rights Movement” by Robinson.

But Robinson, the Greensboro native, is the Republican front-runner for governor in a GOP field with state Treasurer Dale Folwell and trial lawyer Bill Graham as other prominent candidates. If the general election plays out as political analysts project, polling shows Robinson in a close race with Democrat Josh Stein.

A December East Carolina University poll and a January Meredith Poll both showed Robinson leading the race to be the Republican nominee. The latest Real Clear Politics analysis has Robinson favored by 40 points over Graham to grab the party’s nomination.

In a potential matchup with Stein in the general election on Nov. 5, the current attorney general has a slight edge on Robinson, according to the Meredith Poll.

“North Carolina has a history of supporting Republican candidates for president and Democratic candidates for governor,” Meredith Poll Director David McLennan said. “The campaign is far from over, but no one should be surprised if North Carolina continues this political tradition in 2024.”

To win the GOP primary, Robinson doesn’t need the Black vote, a demographic that is only 3% Republican. Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper said Robinson won’t have to court a large percentage of Black voters to win the general election either.

“Any advantage Robinson can gain with Black voters is certainly helpful for the larger GOP movement,” said Cooper in an email to The Charlotte Observer. “But it is by no means necessary for victory in 2024. Robinson needs a high turnout among GOP voters and a relatively low turnout among Democrats. The Black vote is much more important to the Democratic than Republican candidates.”

Robinson’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Black voters are ‘terrified’ of Robinson

For Robinson to win a larger share of Black voters in North Carolina, most of whom traditionally lean Democrat, he would have to overcome notions that the Republican party is hostile to Black people and does not align with their political or social interests.

Examples may be seen in multiple redistricting lawsuits filed in federal court challenging North Carolina district lines enacted by the Republican-controlled General Assembly for use through the 2030 elections. The lawsuits alleged illegal racial gerrymandering that targeted Black residents.

Colette Forrest is the co-founder of the Charlotte Black Voter Project. The nonpartisan organization she helped assemble wants to increase voter participation in Mecklenburg County.

In January, the group held a forum at Little Rock AME Zion Church in Charlotte and invited political party representatives from statewide races that featured at least one Black candidate on the ballot, including the governor’s race to speak with constituents.

Robinson did not appear at the meeting attended by 230 people at the church, and Forrest indicated that Robinson is unlikely to win over any liberal-leaning Black voters.

“They are terrified of Mark Robinson because he seems so Trumpish,” she said. “And we, as Blacks, recognize how destructive Trump is to democracy.”

That fear may lie in Robinson saying he’d ban abortions in the state, being against diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, and suggesting the state Board of Education be eliminated.

“Most Black people I talk to, are terrified of the thought of him being in the governor’s mansion,” Forrest said.

Opinions in rural NC

Wadesboro is a town of 5,000 people located 51 miles east of Charlotte in Anson County, which voted for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the last five elections. The most recent U.S. Census data indicates Black residents make up 61% of Wadesboro’s population, one of the largest such demographic distinctions in the state for African Americans living in a single city or town.

But an appetite for political involvement is low, said longtime resident Leon Gatewood. For years, he’s been motivated to educate people on the electoral process because voter apathy “makes me sick,” he told the Observer.

When asked to make an assessment of Robinson, who visited Wadesboro for an event held by the Anson County Republican Party on Jan. 27, Gatewood was candid about the controversial conservative.

“What we’re learning is all skinfolk aren’t kinfolks,” he said in reference to the Zora Neale Hurston quote that insinuates some Black people hold racial animus against their own. “He hasn’t said anything that I can identify with. It’s not a hard decision for me.”

‘They don’t know him’

Conversely, Robinson has the support from Black conservatives, who are smaller in numbers than Black liberals in the state.

One of them is Mecklenburg County Black Republican Club Party member and 12th Congressional District candidate Addul Ali. He said Robinson running for the state’s highest office could be an opportunity to show that Black people can have diverse political perspectives.

Ali touts Robinson as a candidate who can speak to common issues such as crime, education and economics, though he said Black voters could be influenced by media reporting that amplifies Robinson’s inflammatory commentary and soundbites on the campaign trail and in interviews.

“(Black voters) don’t know him,” said Ali, who encourages voters to judge Robinson on his record. “As someone who has put Mark Robinson in front of everyday people, once they get to know him and question him ... that (perception) changes.”

Valerie Miller, state director of Blexit North Carolina, a nonpartisan conservative group that encourages Black people to distance themselves from mainstream politics, says Robinson’s lack of appeal is mystifying considering his historic rise within state government.

“It’s not to say that you support someone because they’re Black, but I just feel a lot of the Black race doesn’t look at what he stands for,” she said. “If they did, they would actually support him.”

Despite Robinson toning down the rhetoric to take a more moderate position these days, Steven Greene, a political science professor at NC State University, says there is still a lot of convincing he has to do to win over Black voters.

Aimy Steele, CEO of The New North Carolina Project, a group started in 2021 that aims to increase voter registration and voter turnout among minority communities, says Robinson should do one thing this election cycle.

“What he can do is drop out of the race,” said the former Concord educator, who lost two close state House elections in Cabarrus County in 2018 and 2020 as a Democrat.

“That would be a sign of doing what’s best for Black and brown people in North Carolina.”

Candidates in Democratic race

Robinson is the only Republican Black gubernatorial candidate. Meanwhile, all gubernatorial candidates on the Democratic side, except front-runner Stein, are Black.

Marcus Williams, an attorney from Lumberton, is running on a political platform that is almost the complete opposite of Robinson’s. He supports women’s rights issues and wants to create a citizen’s panel to review police body-worn camera footage.

Chrelle Booker, a Tryon native has focused her campaign on “women’s empowerment” and environmental protection.

Gary Foxx, a former police chief in Edgecombe County, has promoted progressive ideas such as “common sense” gun reform, diversity, equity and inclusion and an increase in the minimum wage.

But Mike Morgan, a former North Carolina Supreme Court associate justice, is considered the one Democrat who has a shot to challenge Stein in the primary. Unlike Robinson, Morgan supports green energy initiatives, gender-affirming care and abortion rights.

Could Morgan or another candidate rally enough backing from Black voters to overtake Stein and then defeat Robinson in a general election showdown?

State polling numbers cast doubt on that.

Stein retained a 31% to 4% lead over Mike Morgan for the Democratic nomination, according to the most recent Meredith Poll published earlier this month.

“The problem for him and anybody else who is not Josh Stein is that it’s Josh Stein and everybody else,” Greene said. “The primary is coming up pretty soon and there isn’t enough time for anyone to overcome that lead of Josh Stein.”