Mark Stoops’ task: Having raised expectations for Kentucky football, he now must meet them

For many decades of “the Kentucky football experience,” the 2022 Wildcats football season would have been deemed more than satisfactory.

Seven regular-season wins. A victory over No. 12 Florida at “The Swamp.” Another SEC road win at Missouri. A fourth-straight triumph over intrastate rival Louisville. A Music City Bowl invitation.

Based on the win/loss parameters as they existed for UK from 1978 through 2017, last year would have ranked as a top five — top three? — Kentucky football campaign from that 40-season span.

Instead, UK’s 7-6 record for 2022 was considered a major disappointment in, seemingly, all corners of the Big Blue Nation. That reality exemplifies how Kentucky football’s relative bounty since 2018 — two 10-win campaigns; four bowl victories; a 40-23 overall record — has changed the paradigm for what UK football backers now count as “success.”

As Kentucky prepares to start its 2023 football season with a noon kickoff Saturday vs. Ball State, this is the conundrum facing Wildcats head man Mark Stoops:

It is Stoops’ achievements above the historic level of Kentucky football that has raised the bar on expectations. However, that also means the UK head man now has to live up to an elevated definition for what are acceptable outcomes for Wildcats football seasons.

Though the Kentucky head man will be well-compensated for his efforts, continuing to lift UK football in the hyper-competitive Southeastern Conference will not be easy.

Because even some UK backers seem to have lost sight of how far Kentucky football has come, let’s take a brief trip down history lane. When Stoops was hired by UK in 2012, Kentucky had just completed a 2-10 season. Meanwhile, James Franklin had just coached Vanderbilt — along with Kentucky, the SEC’s other traditional football laggard — to a 9-4 mark.

So Stoops inherited the worst team in the SEC. From that starting point, Kentucky has climbed solidly into the middle of the league.

One can track Kentucky’s ascent on a team-by-team basis.

From 2000 through 2013, UK lost 13 of 14 games to South Carolina.

Since 2014, the Wildcats are 7-2 vs. the Gamecocks.

From 2009 through 2015, Kentucky lost seven straight to Mississippi State.

Since 2016, UK is 4-3 vs. the Bulldogs.

From 2011 through 2017, Kentucky lost six of seven games to Louisville.

UK has now beaten the Cardinals four straight and five out of six.

When Missouri entered the SEC in 2012, the Tigers won their first three games vs. Kentucky.

Since 2015, the Wildcats have gone 7-1 vs. Mizzou.

From 2011 through 2015, Kentucky lost four out of five to Vanderbilt.

Starting in 2016, UK has gone 6-1 vs. Vandy.

Heck, Florida beat Kentucky in all 31 games the two played from 1987 through 2017.

Since 2018, UK is 3-2 vs. UF and has won the past two meetings.

Of the teams Kentucky has customarily played every season, Stoops has made substantial progress against all but Tennessee (2-8) and Georgia (0-10).

The UT series has been especially frustrating. From 2017 through 2021, Kentucky went 40-23 overall, 21-21 in the SEC, while Tennessee went 27-33, 14-28 in the SEC. Yet, head-to-head, the Cats got only two victories over the Vols in that period.

In the case of Georgia, it has been UK’s misfortune that its program uptick has coincided with Kirby Smart building the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs into a juggernaut.

With UK having finished second in the SEC East twice (2018, 2021) in the past five seasons, “the next step” for the Cats would be to pierce the elite level of the SEC. Under Stoops, UK is a combined 0-13 vs. league kingpins Alabama and Georgia.

Once Oklahoma and Texas enter the SEC in 2024 and division scheduling goes away, the climb required of Kentucky football to reach the top of the Southeastern Conference only grows steeper.

That makes 2023 an important season for Stoops and UK.

The good news is that there is far more reason to be bullish on the 2023 Kentucky football roster than there was the 2022 edition. For reasons that, presumably, had a lot to do with the NFL Draft hype that built around then-UK quarterback Will Levis last summer, the 2022 Cats were accorded uncommon preseason respect — picked to finish No. 2 in the SEC East; ranked No. 20 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25.

This year’s Cats will begin 2023 without that level of external puffery but what appears to be a far better-rounded roster.

Yet facing a league schedule that includes both Georgia and Alabama and which is back-loaded with a massively challenging five-game stretch to end the year, this is the quandary Stoops faces:

The UK coach could field the best team of his Kentucky tenure — yet still not amass a record that meets the newly heightened fan expectations that have arisen due to the prior success Stoops has achieved.

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