Mark Walker's political future in jeopardy after redistricting

Mark Walker is trapped — and he's looking for an escape hatch.

Court-prompted redistricting eviscerated his Republican-friendly House seat just weeks before North Carolina's filing deadline, leaving the ambitious minister-turned-congressman searching for a way to salvage his political future.

Walker is now facing a headache-inducing choice between primarying one of his Republican colleagues in the House, taking on GOP Sen. Thom Tillis in 2020 or waiting two years to run for an open Senate seat in 2022, in what is likely to be crowded race full of formidable opponents. Some Republicans in the state are also urging him to consider a run for lieutenant governor.

North Carolina Republicans who have spoken to Walker said he vacillates constantly between his alternatives and likely won’t decide until close to the Dec. 20 deadline.

“We’re just looking at all the options,” Walker said in a brief interview last week. “Filing’s not until later this month, so we’re just considering what’s best and how we can continue taking our message to all communities.”

The 50-year-old Walker, who was first elected to the House in 2014, has long nursed dreams of running for Senate. He considered primarying Tillis earlier this year with the encouragement of the conservative Club for Growth, though he ultimately declined to run.

As he reconsiders now, he has solicited a variety of opinions, including a sit-down with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell last week at Walker’s request. McConnell told him Senate Republicans were completely behind Tillis and committed to helping the incumbent, according to a person familiar with the meeting.

"Congressman Walker got a tough blow when the districts changed, and so it would be reasonable for him to look at other options," Tillis said of his potential primary challenger. "He’s worked hard in the House, and I just think he’s trying to sort it out. Somebody like him I think has a place to play. He’s just sorting out whether or not it’s in the Senate this cycle.”

Walker also spoke with Garland Tucker, the wealthy businessman who was running against Tillis in the GOP primary but abruptly dropped out this month ahead of the filing deadline. Tucker didn’t say he would endorse Walker if he chose to run, but did hint that he would be supportive.

“I'll be all for anyone who's conservative to win this nomination,” Tucker said. “I think Mark Walker is a good conservative.”

Tucker said he dropped out after his fundraising dried up, also citing struggles in getting his message out during the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump, which Tillis strongly opposes. Trump's summer endorsement of Tillis also closed off a space to outflank the incumbent on the right.

Tucker said to be viable, Walker would need to get Trump “back to neutral” in the race — a very unlikely prospect after the president’s June endorsement — and raise upwards of $3 million, a major challenge just three months before the March primary.

Walker would face other challenges in a Senate primary. Tillis has already been advertising statewide with a pro-Trump message and has a built-in campaign apparatus that geared up in the face of the Tucker challenge. Walker would have just three months to build an entire campaign network and boost his name ID in areas of the state outside his congressional district, both while competing for attention with the daily barrage of news from an impeachment trial.

“Walker is in a tough spot,” said one North Carolina Republican, who requested anonymity to speak frankly. “It's almost damned if you do, damned if you don't.”

Much of the state’s congressional delegation seems likely to side with Tillis, depriving Walker of neutrality or any semblance of support. Though the Club for Growth initially tried to woo Walker into the Senate primary in the spring, it’s unclear if they would support a run now.

If he hopes to remain in the House, Walker has suggested he could primary fellow Republican Reps. Ted Budd or Patrick McHenry, whose new districts both absorbed some of his old seat. Walker's campaign polled in both districts and said he led both match-ups, but the details and methodology of the polling is unclear.

“I’m ready if anyone comes at me,” McHenry said last week in a brief Capitol interview.

But Walker has privately told McHenry, a former deputy whip and ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, that he will not run against him, according to sources familiar with their conversation. Though McHenry's district was dramatically altered in the redraw, most of Walker's old constituency — 53 percent, according to Walker campaign calculations — falls in the new 13th District, where Budd plans to run.

“Listen, I don’t think most of us would ever want to run against a fellow member,” Walker said, “But, sometimes, if more of your constituents that you currently represent are placed in just a different number, you have to make the decision.”

Walker is keeping Budd somewhat abreast of his thinking, according to a source close to Budd, and told him in a Tuesday morning conversation that he was still deciding between the House and Senate.

Budd's campaign is preparing for a Walker challenge, dropping $20,000 on a district-wide radio buy to introduce himself to new voters. Budd is also planning to launch cable TV ads on Fox News Channel in the district, and his allies are already telegraphing warnings to Walker.

“Budd is a Freedom Caucus member. He wouldn’t want to do that. He wouldn’t want to run against Ted Budd," Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said in an interview last week.

The Club for Growth, which boosted Budd to victory in a 17-candidate primary in 2016, took a thinly veiled shot at Walker after the new lines were finalized. David McIntosh, the Club's president, told POLITICO the group would support Budd's reelection and is prepared to spend more than $1 million "defending him from any potential primary challenges."

Budd already has name ID in the district from TV ad spending in his 2016 and 2018 races, but both members would start with comparable war chests. Budd ended the third quarter with $665,000 in the bank; Walker had $740,000.

The senatorial ambitions of the delegation make Walker’s calculus more complicated. While Tillis is running for reelection next year, the state's senior senator, Richard Burr, isn't planning to run again when his seat is up in 2022.

A primary loss by Budd or Walker could hurt their prospects to succeed Burr in a race that could draw a slew of big names, including Meadows, GOP Rep. Richard Hudson and former Gov. Pat McCrory.

Walker’s current challenge is figuring out how to stay in the political arena without creating enemies that could stymie his future plans. A run against McHenry could have vexed some powerful donors in the financial services industry, but challenging Budd would mean going against the Club.

Walker has carved out a conservative reputation in the House, leading the Republican Study Committee in the previous Congress. He's currently a member of House GOP leadership, serving as the vice chair of the Republican conference.

Lately, some North Carolina operatives have floated a lieutenant governor run as a solution. Though Walker would face a large field of opponents, a Civitas Institute poll of the GOP primary from early December found 67 percent of voters were undecided. The same poll showed Tillis with 63 percent support in the primary, with Republican Sandy Smith at 11 percent and 25 percent of GOP voters undecided.

One other wrinkle: Walker was entangled in a federal corruption probe that ensnared Robin Hayes, the former congressman who was serving as chairman of the state party. Though he is not named specifically in the indictment, POLITICO identified Walker as “Public Official A,” and a trial next year involving a GOP donor and consultant could create unwelcome publicity in a difficult campaign.

Walker dropped nearly $56,000 on legal services in the third quarter, according to his FEC filings. Still, he insisted the timing or substance of the trial would not impact his decision-making process. “Since we haven’t been listed as a target of that, that’s not a factor,” he said.