Mark Woods: What's in a hurricane name? Look out for Gaston in 2022 season

Back by popular demand — OK, more accurately, back because I needed an easy column — my Highly Scientific Hurricane Forecast.

Wednesday marks the start of another hurricane season. And while you could turn to our local meteorologists, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association scientists or even Colorado State University researchers — yes, some of the alleged hurricane “experts” are in Colorado — they’ll just give you vague predictions for what lies ahead.

They’ll say that even with all their education, satellites and logoed rain slickers, it's complicated. For instance, NOAA predicts the season will bring 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.

That’s fine. But did any of these experts predict last June 1 that there was a high probability of Elsa turning into a hurricane?

No, you only got that here, based on my Highly Scientific Analysis, namely that anyone who has ever seen “Frozen” knew that Ana, the first storm of 2021, wouldn’t do much damage but Elsa had some high winds inside her.

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So without further ado, the Highly Scientific Projections for this hurricane season, based solely on what comes to mind when I see the list of 2022 names. (As always, the disclaimer that what pops into my mind might be different than yours.)

Alex — What is a storm name that makes me think of a late Jeopardy host? (And say that the odds of this one hitting us are slim.) 1,000-to-1

Colin — Brings to mind Colin Firth. English. With a surname straight from the rugged coastal waters. If ever a name felt like a storm, it’s Colin Firth. 12-1

Bonnie — In hurricane projection context, a nursery rhyme — “My Bonnie lies over the ocean, my Bonnie lies over the sea” — feels a bit ominous. 25-1

Danielle — Danielle Steel writes romance novels and, in real life, has been married five times, all of which feels quite stormy. 5-1

Earl — I know I’ll be showing my age here, but I think of Earl Weaver, the longtime Baltimore Orioles manager who was legendary for, among other things, his epic blowups with umpires. 15-1

Fiona — A princess in “Shrek.” Which taught us that onions and ogres are like hurricanes. They have layers. 500-1

Gaston — A Disney villain, from "Beauty and the Beast." Feels like something that would hit us in 2022. 3-1

Hermine – I’ve never met a Hermine. Closest would be reading "Harry Potter," with Hermione Granger, to my daughter. Can't help but think Hermine sounds like a word one of Terry Dickson’s Pond Scoggin characters would use to describe a girlfriend. Hermine. 75-1

Ian — Ian Fleming gave us James Bond and “Chitty-Chitty-Bang-Bang.” (A car that can fly, swim and fight crime sure would come in handy during hurricane season.) 50-1.

Julia — Julia Child famously said, “I enjoy cooking with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.” I know some people apply her cooking philosophy to hurricane preparation, stocking up on water, batteries and beer. Cheers! 25-1.

Karl — Karl Malone is best known for playing power forward for the Utah Jazz (and for his "The Mailman" nickname), but it’s worth remembering what he did in retirement after Hurricane Katrina. The Louisiana native, an experienced truck driver, brought a convoy of his Arkansas logging company vehicles to Mississippi and spent two weeks, working 12 hours a day, clearing debris from lots. 5,000-1

Lisa – My first girlfriend was named Lisa. I, like Bart Simpson, have a sister named Lisa. Could Lisa develop into a Category 5 hurricane? 9-1.

Martin — There’s a Very Scientific reason to be nervous about this one. Hurricane names rotate in six-year cycles. If a storm is devastating enough, the name is retired. Martin replaces a name that was retired after 2016, Matthew. 10-1

Nicole — Kidman. When I first got voice directions in my car, I chose an Australian voice and called her Nicole. When my wife questioned this, I changed it to English and Elizabeth, as in Hurley. I figure all of this will come back to haunt me. 2-1

Owen — Owen Wilson. Lightning McQueen. “In your dreams, Thunder.” 400-1

Paula — Paula Abdul turns 60 this month. Straight Up. 60-1.

Richard — King. Brings to mind a winter of discontent. Or maybe Richard Williams being played by Will Smith. Which means this storm could take a surprise turn and hit us like a slap on the face. 25-1.

Shary — Last year Hurricane Sam brought the highest winds of the 2021 season. So beware of the S-storm. 8-1.

Tobias — Tobey Maguire’s real name is Tobias. I believe Spider-Man is capable of stopping a hurricane. 20,000-1.

Virginie — Extensive research (Googling it) tells me "Virginie" was the name of the longest-running Canadian television series. It also tells me that every other letter in use for Atlantic storms has a retired name. There never has been a V-named storm that did enough devastation to have its name retired. Reason for optimism? Not if you’re the nervous Highly Scientific Forecaster. 20-1.

Walter — The elusive fish that plays a key role in the 1981 movie “On Golden Pond.” Here’s hoping we finish the 2022 hurricane season with water as serene as a golden pond. 100-1.

mwoods@jacksonville.com, (904) 359-4212

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Hurricane forecast 2022 based on Atlantic storm names