Maryland hosts July's only primary elections: Here's what you should know

Maryland residents vote Tuesday in a quiet month for primaries as November's midterms inch closer. Democrats seek to replace Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, in the traditionally left-leaning state. Other races include a Senate primary and eight House races.

Context

• July has been a lull for primary elections before the midterms. Maryland is the only state holding primary elections in July.

• The midterms, which mark the halfway point of President Joe Biden's presidency, are drawing closer. Thirty states have held their primary elections.

• The general election is scheduled for Nov. 8.

Moderate Republicans try to steer away from Trump

Hogan will leave office in January 2023 under term limits, opening a governor's seat in a state Biden carried by more than 30 percentage points in the 2020 election.

During his tenure, Hogan enjoyed support from Maryland Democrats. He kept an arm's length from Donald Trump and has criticized the former president, who demands absolute loyalty from members of the GOP.

Trump is eager to replace him with Dan Cox, a state representative who attempted to impeach Hogan over Maryland’s COVID-19 restrictions. On Jan. 6, 2021, Cox called Vice President Pence a “traitor” on Twitter for certifying the 2020 presidential election results.

Hogan endorsed Kelly Schulz, a former official within his administration, for the nomination. The race is set up to be another battle between Trump’s influence and the more moderate wing of the GOP trying to steer the party away from the former president.

The gubernatorial race includes two lesser-known candidates, Robin Ficker, a disbarred attorney, and Joe Werner, an attorney entering Republican politics for the first time.

The governorship

• In a poll from Goucher College conducted in March, Hogan had 71% approval among Republicans, 69% from independents and 61% from Democrats.

• Flipping the seat would add to the slate of 22 Democratic-led statehouses, especially important as Democrats look to reinforce abortion access at the state level after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which provided the constitutional right to an abortion.

A crowded Democratic ballot for governor

There are 10 candidates on the Democratic ballot for governor. Three front-runners have emerged as the likely candidate to take on the Republican nominee in November: Comptroller of Maryland Peter Franchot; former nonprofit CEO and author Wes Moore; and former chair of the Democratic National Committee Tom Perez, who served as President Barack Obama's labor secretary.

A Goucher College poll conducted in partnership with the Baltimore Banner and WYPR found a three-way statistical tie among Franchot, Moore and Perez among likely Democratic voters – Franchot has 16%, and Moore and Perez poll at 14%.

A safe Democratic Senate seat

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Chris Van Hollen defends his seat in November.

Republicans clamored to have Hogan run against Van Hollen. Hogan declined, giving the incumbent a relatively clear path to reelection. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as solidly Democratic.

“He can rest easy and get a good night’s sleep tonight,” Hogan joked about Van Hollen in February at a news conference.

There are 10 candidates on the ballot for Republican voters to decide on a nominee to take on Van Hollen. Businessman James Tarantin is the only candidate to raise more than $100,000.

Despite effort to undo election, Harris likely to remain Maryland’s only GOP member of Congress

Democrats look to unseat Maryland’s only Republican representative, Andy Harris, in the 1st Congressional District where Trump won by 14 percentage points in the 2020 election. Harris runs unopposed in the solidly conservative district’s Republican primary.

According to the House committee investigating the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Harris was one of at least 10 House Republicans who attended a meeting at the White House in December 2020 and discussed plans and pathways to overturn the 2020 election and keep Trump in office. Harris was one of 147 Republicans in Congress who voted to overturn election results after Jan. 6.

Two Democrats vie for the nomination to take on Harris: former state Del. Heather Mizeur and Dave Harden, a national security consultant. Mizeur has name recognition and more fundraising behind her than Harris. 

What's at stake?

• The midterm elections are shaping up to be favorable toward Republicans, who are likely to at least gain control of the U.S. House. The incumbent president's party historically has fared poorly in the midterms, but this year could prove to be much worse for Democrats amid high inflation and growing disapproval of Biden.

• Democrats have emphasized the need to elect officials at the state level to protect and expand abortion access. Maryland is key to Democrats' efforts as conservative states have either outlawed abortion or are in the process of enacting restrictions.

• The general election in November will provide a glimpse into the effects of redistricting. Both chambers in the state Legislature are led by Democratic supermajorities. Democrats attempted to pass a map that made seven of eight congressional seats safe for Democrats while redrawing the only Republican seat to be more competitive. A judge threw out the map, calling it an "extreme partisan gerrymander." The new map retains the state's 7-1 split between Democrats and Republicans but makes one Democratic seat more competitive.

Vulnerable Democratic seat

Republicans focus on Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, occupied by Democratic Rep. David Trone.

In the 2020 election, Biden won in Trone’s district by almost 10 percentage points. Though the district still leans Democratic, redistricting made Trone’s seat the most competitive compared with other areas Biden carried.

Republican voters will pick one of six candidates to take on Trone. Neil Parrot, a state delegate, lost to Trone in the 2020 general election by almost 20 percentage points and is looking for a rematch.

Matthew Foldi, a former journalist, has the backing of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.; No. 3 House Republican Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.; and Hogan.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Maryland's primary elections: Governor's race and more