What are Mastriano's chances of winning in November?

As I write this, the Republican race for the nomination to run for U.S. senator for Pennsylvania is headed for a recount, but the Republican governor’s race is over and in the books.

State Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, thanks to a resolute following and a crowded field, walked away with the nomination and a chance to run against Pennsylvania state Attorney General Josh Shapiro this November.

Can Mastriano beat Democrat Josh Shapiro in November? There have been a number of articles in media from all parts of the political spectrum that have stated that Mastriano is destined to lose big, and take down the rest of the Republican ticket with him. There is also no doubt that Shapiro and the Democrats viewed Mastriano as their dream opponent in November, to the point of running endless ads stating a vote for Mastriano is a vote for Donald Trump, something Trump supporters ate up like candy. Didn’t anyone stop and ask themselves why the Democrats were spending a ton of money attacking a Republican primary candidate?

Mastriano can win in November. I could win Powerball this week too, but Mastriano’s odds of beating Shapiro are actually better than my odds of hitting the big one. I personally give Mastriano a one in four chance of winning, but there needs to be a lot of things that happen to put him in the governor’s mansion, most of which aren’t under Mastriano’s control.

Mastriano has two big advantages. The first is a very solid base of supporters with an almost cult-like devotion to the state senator. These folks will stick with Mastriano to the end. The second advantage is the highly anticipated “red wave” that seems to be approaching and could give the Republican party an unprecedented number of victories in the general election, thanks to a crumbling economy under President Joe Biden. The effect of that on the Pennsylvania governor’s race remains to be seen.

On the other side of the ledger, Mastriano’s disadvantages are many. The first one is not apparent to most, and it is that Mastriano is untested and not well-vetted. He was selected to fill the vacancy of former state Senator Richard Alloway by Alloway’s establishment friends in 2019. He also received generous financing from the political establishment to get him launched and very friendly treatment in some local media outlets. That is going to change quickly as he is thrown in the meat grinder of state politics against a ruthless and able opponent.

More Weidman:With days to go, Republican primaries still up for grabs

Bill Gindlesperger:The economy is so good, it's sort of bad

Secondly, Mastriano just hasn’t been an effective state senator. Oh yes, he’s ridden some populist waves, such as the anti-COVID lockdown and masking issue and the “audit the vote” movement coming out of the 2020 elections, but the cupboard is bare when it comes to legislative accomplishments, and he is obviously not concerned with bread-and-butter state issues like taxes, education, transportation or health care. As Kellyanne Conway has stated, “Doug Mastriano is a show horse and not a work horse.” Ouch!

Third, the math is against him. Democrats have a 550,000-voter registration advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania. That is a huge hurdle to overcome. There are 1.3 million non-affiliated and third-party voters, but they tend to shy away from any candidate they see as “extreme." A May 8 poll by Osage Research shows that Shapiro has an 8-point lead — 49%-41% — over Mastriano with swing voters, even though Pennsylvania swing voters generically favor a Republican over a Democrat 42%-39%.

There are other issues that could weigh heavily against Mastriano. A sizeable number of Republicans might decide to choose “none of the above” in November in response to the cold shoulder he gives the party, and there are potential issues such as illicit fundraising that are scandals waiting to happen. Shapiro also has a huge advantage in money.

Finally, a lot depends on the candidates. Who will be able to reach those in the center? Shapiro probably has the better ability in that regard and has been at odds with Gov. Tom Wolf on issues such as the COVID crisis.

Can Doug Mastriano moderate to snare the swing vote?

Probably not, and if he can’t, it’s over for him.

Dwight Weidman is a resident of Greene Township and is a graduate of Shepherd University. He is retired from the United States Department of Defense, where his career included assignments In Europe, Asia and Central America. He has been in leadership roles for the Republican Party in two states, most recently serving two terms as Chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party. Involved in web publishing since 1996, he is the publisher of The Franklin County Journal. He has been an Amateur Radio Operator since 1988, getting his first license in Germany, and is a past volunteer with both Navy and Army MARS, Military Auxiliary Radio Service, and is also a certified firearms instructor.

This article originally appeared on Chambersburg Public Opinion: Can Doug Mastriano moderate to snare the swing vote?