Matchup notes for Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season

Every week, when Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield prepare to do their matchup podcast, they’re taking notes for the show rundown based on tape observations and advanced metrics from Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders. We thought it would be interesting and enlightening for our readers to check out the notes, which have special value if you listen to or watch the podcast at the same time!

Giants at Washington

I’m going to do something I don’t usually do -- I’m going to give Jason Garrett a little bit of credit. Against the Broncos, Daniel Jones had some kind of pre-snap motion on 17 dropbacks, completing eight of 12 passes for 103 yards, a touchdown, and a passer rating of 112.0. Pretty good for a coach who had no use for it last season, and when you’re facing a defense as good as Denver’s, anything helps. Well, here’s Washington, who allowed nine completions on 13 attempts for 81 yards with motion against the Chargers. And for the most part, Jones still looks like the guy I thought was about a third-round guy coming out of Duke. So, the more you can scheme him up, the better. Washington’s offense remains unexplosive, but with Fitzpatrick out, that’s kinda what you’re going to get. If it remains reductive, I wonder if there’s a breaking point of great defense/bad offense where a certain Mr. Newton is called.

Bengals at Bears

I am convinced that Matt Nagy, in a past life, was one of those people in the early 20th century who wanted football to be abolished. Against the Rams, the Bears were the only team in Week 1 that didn’t even attempt a pass 15 or more yards downfield. Remember, they had a fourth-and-15 at one point, and I think that was another of Andy Dalton’s four-yard outs. Of which he had about 20. But Andy did well, per his head coach. Whaaaaaatever. There is not a single thing Andy Dalton does better than Justin Fields, and I'm just going to keep saying it until somebody in Chicago finally figures it out. This is when I extend a mea culpa to Ja’Marr Chase. Yes, I was wrong to worry about the drops, though you didn’t help matters when you opined that the NCAA football is easier to catch with the white stripes. But that 50-yard touchdown right out of the 2019 LSU playbook? Sweet. And Joe Burrow reminded me how amazing he can be with half an offensive line.

Texans at Browns

That Chiefs game is one that the Browns win 98 out of 100 times against most teams, and maybe five out of 10 times against the Chiefs. THis wasn’t an old-school Browns collapse. It is not time to panic. They still have the best offensive like in football -- the blocking on Nick Chubb’s touchdown run was just obscene. Mayfield had some nice schemed-up deep shots -- Anthony Schwartz on a throwback concept and an arc fade, and David Njoku on an out-and-up. Mayfield had the deep shot to Schwartz on their penultimate drive that Schwartz couldn’t quite bring in, and then on the last drive, a bunch of short stuff that kept the drive going, but it was very chalk until Mayfield made the one throw he really shouldn’t have, which Mike Hughes intercepted. So, I’m kinda where I was with this offense. I know that Kevin Stefanski can scheme up big plays, but there are instances where you need a receiver to just dominate his coverage for the deep shot. Odell Beckham is out for this game, and the Texans looked surprisingly spicy in their opener against the Jaguars. Also, the Browns allowed far too many free releases and open space on quick, in-breaking routes against Tyreek Hill. I would perhaps reconsider that strategy should these teams meet in the playoffs.

Rams at Colts

From Next Gen Stats: Matthew Stafford was effective passing on play action in his Rams debut, completing 8 of 8 passes for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. Stafford is the first player with multiple TD of 40+ air yards in a game since Kirk Cousins in Week 6, 2019. Since 2017, the Rams have used play action at a rate of 1st (2017), 1st (2018), 4th (2019) and 3rd (2020). Over the past 2 seasons, Stafford was 5th in yards per attempt, 3rd in air yards per attempt and 3rd in success rate on play action passes. He’s going to demolish the league this year. MVP alert. The Seahawks did a great job of using their passing concepts to beat Indy’s two-high and zero coverages. This could be a nightmare for Matt Eberflus, though I’m wondering who this offense won’t be a nightmare against. Carson Wentz looked okay. The first touchdown pass to Zach Pascal was with Pascal in the inside slot, and Wentz smart enough to know that when Jamal Adams blitzes, the Seahawks don’t generally replace his fit in coverage. The second was a skinny post in which the Seahawks were blitzing to the back side, and Tre Flowers lost Pascal in man coverage. So, Wentz was smart enough to take what Seattle gave him when that happened, and he didn’t make any catastrophic mistakes. But there were still too many elongated reads, too many scattershot throws, and his mechanics are still all over the place. Now, he’s got Raheem Morris’ version of Brandon Staley’s defense to deal with. Fun!

Bills at Dolphins

So, this is interesting. Against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Josh Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 884 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. The Steelers, who had the NFL’s third-highest blitz rate of 40.3%, behind only the Ravens and Dolphins, blitzed Allen on just 1.8% of their defensive snaps last Sunday. Last Sunday against the Patriots, the Dolphins blitzed on 52.5% of their snaps, behind only the Buccaneers. In Week 1 against the Patriots, the Dolphins blitzed on 25 of their defensive plays -- that blitz rate of 52.5% was the second-highest in the league, behind Tampa’s 53.2%. In Week 2 of the 2020 season, Miami blitzed Allen just 15 times, and ranked eighth in Positive Play Rate allowed. In Week 17 against the BIlls, Miami blitzed Allen 21 times -- that 53% blitz rate ranked first in the NFL in Week 17 -- and they ranked 29th in Positive Play Rate allowed. That was the game where Allen had three touchdowns on 25 attempts, and things got so out of hand, it was Matt Barkley time. So, the fourth part of the Josh Allen Breakout Triptych seems to be avoiding the blitz, getting pressure with your base front, and trying to fool him with coverage. Miami’s offense -- I thought Tua looked more in rhythm for the most part -- George Godsey and Eric Studesville did a nice job integrating his point guard tendencies into the offense, and Jaylen Waddle is going to be a problem for defenses. The eyes of New England were upon him, and he looked like he did at Alabama -- a guy who can create separation on any route, and though he’s short-area quick, he’s not DeVonta Smith -- he’s 5-foot-10 and 182 pounds, and he can break tackles like a guy 20 pounds heavier. Tua seemed just fine getting shot plays to both Waddle and Devante Parker.

Patriots at Jets

We talked during the draft analysis season about how well Zach Wilson was protected at BYU. It was a big part of his ability to drive the ball down the field, dynamically and accurate. Against the Panthers’ defense, he was the third-highest pressured quarterback in Week 1, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Teddy Bridgewater. And under pressure, Wilson delivered with big plays, if inconsistent overall efficiency. He completed five of 16 passes under pressure for 109 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was a play in which Wilson rolled to his right out of pressure, and Corey Davis did a brilliant job of adjusting to that and catching an errant throw. That was also the play in which Mekhi Becton was injured, and he’s out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Per PFF, the Patriots ran more plays with two tight ends in Week 1 (35) than in all of 2020 (31). Not a big surprise there. 2020 was not what Bill Belichick wanted from that perspective.

49ers at Eagles

Four different quarterbacks threw two touchdowns under pressure in Week 1 -- Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jalen Hurts. We expect this from Stafford and Wilson, Jameis is up-and-down through his career, but Hurts’ ability to deliver under pressure was encouraging. Nick Sirianni did a wonderful job of marrying Hurts and DeVonta Smith together with concepts. Get Hurts comfortable with bubble screens and RPOs, then set him up for the deep shots. Late in the first half, Hurts had a touchdown to Kenneth Gainwell on a quick cross that was nullified, and he came right back on the next play and hit Dallas Goedert for a touchdown that counted on a great tight-window throw. And the touchdown to DeVonta Smith was right out of the Alabama playbook -- motion to a tight split, Smith in the left slot, run the legal pick, and that’s your ballgame. We know that Kyle Shanahan’s run game faces a serious challenge against the Eagles’ defensive front, but don’t sleep on San Francisco’s newly healthy front, either. Arik Armstead was an absolute monster -- only Maxx Crosby of the Raiders (13) had more pressures in Week 1 than Armstead’s nine, and Kentavius Street came out of nowhere to be a real threat as an IDL who can bring pressure. Both Armstead and Street made Secret Superstars this week.

Raiders at Steelers

Regarding the Steelers’ blitz numbers from earlier -- even with eliminating extra pass-rushers entirely, Pittsburgh led the league in Week 1 with 11 hurries, and ranked third behind the Jaguars and Eagles with a 32.7 pressure rate. That's how dominant their front was, especially Cameron Heyward, who had 12 total pressures and played the game of his life (which is a pretty high bar). The Steelers limited Josh Allen with all different kinds of front looks, including T.J. Watt playing off-ball, and they were brilliant with their drops -- both from their linemen in man and zone drops, and from their linebackers in mug looks. The Bills played a ton of both empty and spread formations with a single back, which is par for the course, and the Steelers were able to shut that down. In Week 14 last season, the Steelers blitzed Allen 25 times, most in the NFL that week, but they ranked 17th in Positive Play Rate allowed when they did so. Just a brilliant game plan from defensive coordinator Keith Butler and his staff. I was surprised not to see more adjustments from Brian Daboll as the game went along. Minkah -- played about 85% of his snaps at free safety his first two seasons in Pittsburgh; this time, they had him everywhere from deep third, to spinning down coverage in rat/robber, to erasing people in the slot as the “look out!” defender.. It was a brilliant game plan similar to what Todd Bowles did in the Super Bowl, where he threw away the blitz and went with multiple coverage concepts. Pittsburgh’s offense? Najee Harris had 45 yards on 20 carries and got 35 of those yards after contact. Yikes. And I hate to say it, but Ben’s arm is… well… let’s just say that he had no attempts of 20 or more air yards. He did have five completions past the sticks, but the velocity was at a Chad Pennington level. Ben had the lowest average time in the pocket in Week 1 with 2.25 seconds on average. Which is what we saw last season. Option B is Dwayne Haskins, who had the NFL’s worst air yards average in 2020. Option C is Mason Rudolph. Meh. So, until the next franchise quarterback comes along, it feels like this is going to be Pittsnurgh’s offense, and the defense is going to have to make up for it.

Saints at Panthers

Two really interesting defenses here -- throw in the Bucs, and it’s the three defenses that have made Aaron Rodgers nervous in the last calendar year. Against Aaron Rodgers, the Saints extended their “stopping the run with a light box” strategy, which was helped by the fact that they were up 17-3 at halftime, and the Packers panicked, thinking they had to go after all the shot plays. We’ll dive into that more in a few minutes. Shaq Thompson was kind of the joker for Phil Snow this week -- we know about Jeremy Chinn, but Thompson had a sack and an interception, and he looked great in coverage. I think Carolina’s defense is one we should watch this season as things come together -- for the players, yes, but also for the multiple fronts and coverages Phil Snow and his staff call. A lot of college concepts, which makes sense, as Snow has been a college defensive coordinator since 1976, with a four-year break with the Lions from 2005 through 2008. It’s a 3-3-5 or four-front nickel base, but a lot of odd stuff -- the Panthers ran the most 4-1-6 in the league last year, and the second-most 3-2-6. Just something to watch. There’s a reason Matt Rhule brought this guy from Temple to Baylor to Carolina. So now, Jameis. Sean Payton did a great job schematically to help Jameis calm down, slow down, throw the ball away when the favorable read wasn’t there, and stay within himself for that five-touchdown game? Because Payton did a great job of scheming stuff open against a Green Bay defense that looked out of sorts, but Jameis still has to make those throws.

Broncos at Jaguars

We may want to think of Teddy Bridgewater as more than a cautious bridge quarterback. He was pressured on 22 of his 41 dropbacks against the Giants, and he completed 12 of 17 passes for 101 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions. 5.9 yards per attempt tells you what he did under pressure, but that’s okay. You want a guy who won’t screw things up under pressure, and historically, that’s who Drew Lock was. All three of Trevor Lawrence’s touchdown passes came with pre-snap motion. All three of Trevor Lawrence’s interceptions came without pre-snap motion. Lawrence with motion in Week 1: 8 of 14 for 119 yards, 88 air yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 124.7. Lawrence without motion: 20 of 37 for 213 yards, 100 air yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 37.3. We’re not saying, we’re just saying.

Vikings at Cardinals

You know who I’m glad I’m not this weekend? Rashod Hill, because he’s the Vikings’ left tackle, and he’s got to deal with Chandler Jones. Christian Darrisaw has been recovering from core muscle surgery, and I don’t know what his status is, but whoever is lining up against Jones this season is going to have a Very Bad Day. Kirk Cousins was pressured on 16 of his 52 dropbacks against the Bengals; that may double against a defense that not only has Chandler Jones, but is doing what they did last season -- all kinds of fronts, all kinds of coverage looks, and Isaiah Simmons looked a lot more comfortable. His interception was actually Robert Alford providing good coverage and Simmons taking the rebound, but he stopped Derrick Henry at the goal line once, and overall, he just seemed to have his bearings where he really didn’t in his rookie season. Byron Murphy played really well, which the Cardinals need, Budda Baker played a lot of free safety and looked really good… I think this Cardinals defense might be better than I imagined, and if that’s the case, watch out, because Arizona’s offense was a different animal. Much more multiple in personnel -- there was one early snap where they had trips right with three tight ends. There was more pre-snap motion, which was great, because last season, no team used less of it, and Arizona was really good with it. Murray’s one pick came on a play where he got the man indicator off motion, but the Titans did a really good job upfield taking away his targets, and Murray tried too hard to fit one in there. But overall, I think the Cardinals are a team far less in the muck with scheme than they were in 2020. Fascinating stat from PFF”s Eric Eager: the Bengals showed a different coverage than they played 16 times on Kirk Cousins' dropbacks. He was 12-16 for 106 yards 0/0 (6.6 YPA) on such plays When they showed the same as they played, Cousins was 24-33 for 245 2/0 (7.4 YPA). Cousins has never been a guy who’s going to transcend it when his reads don’t match reality, so this could (and maybe should) be a Dalvin Cook game.

Falcons at Buccaneers

I don’t know what to make of the Falcons’ offense with Arthur Smith yet. We really didn’t see it. In the preseason finale, Atlanta’s interior offensive line was demolished by Malik McDowell. In Week 1 of the 2021 season, Atlanta’s interior offensive line was demolished by Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox. Here comes Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. Outside of Cam Heyward, Vea was the best IDL in Week 1, and if he’d been named NFC Defensive Player of the Week (which he wasn’t going to be, because he didn’t have a single tackle, and you’d have to watch the tape to see what he did to the Cowboys), and he’s primed to have another monster game. Atlanta appears to have a season-long issue here. Jaylen Mayfield, the third-rounder out of Michigan, was my seventh-ranked interior offensive lineman, and I compared him to Ereck Flowers as a guy who could maul people in the run game, but had serious issues with his base and technique in pass pro. Mayfield gave up two sacks, two quarterback hits, and four quarterback hurries in his regular-season debut. Not to pick on his specifically, because Matt Ryan was pressured on 16 of his 39 dropbacks, and under pressure, he completed five of 12 passes for 39 yards. You can talk all day about Ryan and Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley and Arthur Smith, but until they get their line figured out, the Falcons are in serious trouble. And they are in very serious trouble this week.

Cowboys at Chargers

Justin Herbert faced some challenges against Washington’s defense, but he also had some really nice throws, and Rashawn Slater was among my rookies of the week. The Slater-Chase Young rematch was not a rematch. There were some nice upticks from Dallas’ defense after last season’s disasterbacle -- Trevon Diggs played well against Mike Evans, and Micah Parsons was all over the place, both in pressure and in coverage. Not much more you can expect from a rookie linebacker in his first NFL game. And I don’t think Dallas’ pass-heavy thing will go away -- it wasn’t just a reaction to Tampa Bay’s dominant front, especially Vita Vea. In his last four fully healthy games, Prescott had 47, 57, 58, and 58 attempts. Comments from the coaching staff indicate that Dak is checking out of a lot of run calls. I wonder if he’ll do that against a Chargers secondary that showed a lot of different things. Derwin James and Chris Harris alternating to the STAR position and Derwin James is all the way back.. Demarcus Lawrence is out with a broken foot, so I wonder if they’ll put Parsons on the edge more often.

Titans at Seahawks

Todd Downing has some ‘splainin to do. Ryan Tannehill against the Cardinals: Five dropbacks with play-action, the lowest in the league for any quarterback taking at least 50% of his team’s snaps. 1 of 2 for 39 yards. Tannehill had 38 dropbacks without play-action, completing 20 of 33 passes for 173 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Last season, Tannehill tied with Lamar Jackson for the highest play-action rate, on 36.2% of his dropbacks, and he threw 12 touchdowns to three picks. Without it, Tannehill threw 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. So, it’s not as if Tannehill NEEDS play-action to be above league average, but it helped his comfort level immeasurably in the Arthur Smith era. Also, Taylor Lewan felt it necessary to apologize on Twitter for getting owned by Chandler Jones. He should re-apologize for giving up a pressure to Budda Baker one-on-one. Seattle had some sneaky-good pressure concepts against the Colts. The Shane Waldron offense, on the other hand… as they say in Renton, I’m in. Motion, multiple play-action concepts, man-beaters as opposed to just having Lockett and Metcalf run iso routes and beat the cornerback. There was a 22-yard completion from Russell Wilson to Will Dissly in which Indy’s defense had to deal with pre-snap motion from DK Metcalf, stretch play-action fake to Rashaad Penny, Freddie Swain with a post-snap jdet motion, and Dissly releasing to the boundary out of a YY formation. And the first touchdown to Tyler Lockett was a brilliant construction when splitting safeties is required. Inject it into my veins.

Chiefs at Ravens

The Ravens played a LOT of zero blitz against the Raiders, and it didn’t go well once Derek Carr stopped airmailing his receivers from the second quarter on. Running zero blitz and a ton of man in general when you’re down two of your top three cornerbacks (Jimmy Smith out with an ankle, and Marcus Peters is out for the season) was an interesting strategy. Marlon Humphrey is great both outside and in the slot, but he can’t clone himself, and it was a little weird out there. Gruden attacked that with a good array of man-beaters -- especially different stuff out of bunch, and I’ll be interested to see how Wink Martindale adapts to what would have been a real butt-whipping against a less cautious quarterback. Ronnie Stanley allowed nine pressures against the Raiders. I wasn't too concerned about that -- Stanley was coming back from injury, and we know he’s good. But Stanley is now out for Week 2, and perhaps longer, which puts Alejandro Villanueva over at left tackle. And there may not have been a tackle on either side of the formation who had a worst game in Week 1 than Villanueva, who just hated life against Maxx Crosby. It’s a run-heavy offense, sure, but if Lamar is getting killed all of a sudden… I have questions.

Lions at Packers

So… a lot to unpack here. Aaron Rodgers vs. two-deep coverage is now officially a Thing, but it’s not just country Cover-2. Rodgers is heading straight into the NFL’s defensive trends, and he and the Packers are not ready for it. Rodgers’ splits against coverages that change post-snap and coverages that don’t is one of the widest in the league. It certainly happened against the Saints. There are a lot of stats to consider, and I'll just link to the Rodgers tape/stat piece I did this week. The Lions aren't generally set up to exploit this, but Aaron Glenn, Detroit's new defensive coordinator, was the Saints' defensive backs coach from 2016 through 2020, so he has the secret formula -- the only question is whether he has the personnel to pull it off. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/aaron-rodgers-saints-two-deep-packers/ From PFF"s Eric Eager, 2018-2021 Rodgers is the highest graded QB in the league when they show what they play (93.3) he's 11th when they don't (77.7). Aaron Rodgers had better get used to the new normal.

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