The Matt Gaetz shutdown: Florida's MAGA congressman central to federal spending battle

Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz has emerged as the central figure in a battle over federal spending that has the nation on the brink of a government shutdown, a moment with major implications for Gaetz’s home state and future political career.

Gaetz is leading a band of hard-right lawmakers who refuse to support a stopgap spending measure, known as a continuing resolution, to keep the government open.

Gaetz frames the spending showdown as necessary to rein in the exploding national debt and put the nation on a sustainable financial footing, but critics call it a political stunt that ignores the realities of divided government and will inflict unnecessary pain.

Florida has a lot to lose in the short-term from a shutdown, which is pitting Gaetz’s political interests against the immediate interests of his constituents.

Florida has nearly 67,000 military personnel, according to a White House fact sheet, and many could go without pay during a shutdown. A large portion of those military members live in Gaetz’s Panhandle district, which includes Eglin Air Force Base and Naval Air Station Pensacola.

Florida had another 89,505 federal civilian employees as of 2017. The shutdown could impact a wide range of programs, from processing tax payments to parks and food assistance for poor mothers and children.

The threat of a shutdown already has impacted natural disaster recovery efforts in Florida. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has held back money for long-term recovery projects, including those related to Hurricane Ian, to preserve disaster aid in the event of a crisis if additional funding is not authorized, according to the Washington Post.

Could the politics of intractability pave a way for run for Florida governor?

Yet the politics of refusing to compromise on government spending have boosted Gaetz’s already considerable stature in hard-right circles as he lays the groundwork for a potential campaign for governor in 2026.

“For Gaetz, very rarely does a politician get an opportunity like this to launch kind of a national brand and possibly a gubernatorial run,” said David Jolly, a former GOP congressman from Florida.

The shutdown battle follows Gaetz’s high-profile fight against Kevin McCarthy becoming speaker, which ultimately ended in McCarthy agreeing to big concessions to the most conservative members of Congress.

Gaetz now says he simply is trying to hold McCarthy to his word on the promises he made. He has pushed to have the House pass spending bills for individual agencies, rather than a blanket reauthorization of spending levels through the continuing resolution. Gov. Ron DeSantis has supported this approach, and recently had a phone call with hardline GOP lawmakers where he encouraged them to stand firm in the face of a shutdown.

Government funding runs out at midnight on Saturday, Sept. 30. Because there is little time left, and big differences between the House and Senate on individual appropriations bills, failure to pass a continuing resolution almost certainly will result in a shutdown.

"I'm not going to vote for a continuing resolution," Gaetz said recently. "We gotta break the fever, we gotta kick the habit. The reality we face is a $33 trillion dollar debt that both parties have contributed to... I would observe that even if we had to endure a small shutdown, a week, that the work that we could do to get these individual bills out and negotiated in divided government would be worth it."

Senate Republican leaders support a continuing resolution, as does McCarthy, who has told members in private "that a shutdown would empower President Joe Biden, who the speaker argued wants a funding lapse so he can blame the GOP," according to Politico.

"Voting against standard, short-term government funding means blocking" money for border patrol and immigration agents, noted Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a post on X. "Keeping the government open is the only way to keep making progress on our nation's most pressing issues."

Gaetz did not respond to a request for comment from USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida.

Matt Gaetz's outsized influence on the Republican Party in a divided House

The speakership race and the latest government funding battle have highlighted Gaetz’s huge influence in Congress, marked by a willingness to disrupt the GOP status quo and risk chaos to achieve his aims.

Such efforts thrill many conservatives, who see the shutdown’s financial repercussions as worth the cost.

“Within the Republican orthodoxy all that’s fine, shutting down the government is a win,” Jolly said. “It’s owning the Democrats. The end doesn’t matter so much as the fight, and he’s showing Republicans he can fight.”

An attorney and former state representative whose wealthy father served as Florida Senate president, Gaetz already was a MAGA favorite before his latest battles with McCarthy. He has attracted attention for stunts such as wearing a gas mask on the House floor and outlandish comments, such as suggesting abortion rights activists are unlikely to get pregnant because they aren’t attractive.

FAQ: If a government shutdown is likely, will I still have to make student loan payments?

Known for his sharp tongue and brash, confrontational approach, Gaetz has gained 2.5 million followers on X and has a close relationship with former President Donald Trump.

The shutdown battle could further boost his popularity among some conservatives, although he risks turning off voters who are more moderate or might simply view the effort as irresponsible grandstanding. That could hurt his ability to win a general election if Florida is still in play for Democrats, but Gov. Ron DeSantis’ dominating victory last year cast doubt on Florida’s swing state status.

“Florida looks like it’s increasingly becoming Republican and a less competitive state,” said University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett. “The most important goal for a Republican politician is to win a Republican primary if it’s a statewide race, and so if he has aspirations to be governor the actions he’s taking now and has taken in Congress could help him.”

Gaetz 'a guy with nothing to lose' who may come out on top

Gaetz "strongly implied several times" at a recent event in Tallahassee that he plans to run for governor, according to reporting by NBC News. Gaetz dismissed the report as "overblown clickbait," but is widely viewed as a likely candidate.

The buzz around Gaetz running for governor is a remarkable change of fortunes for an elected official who recently was being investigated by the Department of Justice over sex trafficking allegations. Gaetz's attorneys announced earlier this year that DOJ officials told them they were dropping the probe and no charges would be filed.

“It wasn’t that long ago that his political star seemed to have hit its zenith and was headed down,” Jewett said. “But when the feds announced he was no longer the target of an investigation and wasn’t going to be indicted his fortunes have clearly changed again.”

The shutdown fight is helping Gaetz put his legal problems further in the rearview mirror, as he gains attention for something conservatives are celebrating.

In an interview released Wednesday by the National Pulse, Trump praised Gaetz for persevering through his legal problems.

“He’s strong,” Trump said of Gaetz. “He went through hell for two years over something that I never believed for a second.”

Trump’s backing would be a major advantage for Gaetz in a GOP primary, although it’s not clear he would get it. Other candidates who are considering running for governor such as U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, Attorney General Ashley Moody and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis all were endorsed by Trump in their last elections.

Appealing to staunchly conservative elements of the GOP has the most political benefit for Gaetz right now, said Jolly, who believes Gaetz is unlikely to get much blowback if his constituents suffer from a shutdown.

“That’s not a calculus he worries about, government employees in his district and what it means for their livelihood… it doesn’t matter in Republican politics so much,” Jolly said.

Regardless of how the shutdown turns out and who gets blamed, Jolly believes Gaetz is likely to come out on top.

“He either topples the speaker, he gets something from Kevin McCarthy, he becomes the next governor of Florida or he keeps his House seat for the next 30 years. There’s no downside to Matt Gaetz,” Jolly said, adding: “He’s a guy with nothing to lose. Which makes him very dangerous.”

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Government shutdown: Matt Gaetz rising amid governor race speculation