Matt Horn: If Tank doesn't swat TCU into Big 12, who knows where Horned Frogs would be?

Tank Carder did it.

When Carder batted away a two-point conversion pass late in the fourth quarter that helped Texas Christian defeat Wisconsin 21-19 in the Rose Bowl in 2011, it meant the Horned Frogs would have a chance to compete in the Big 12 Conference.

Playing in the Big 12 afforded TCU the opportunity to compete in a College Football Playoff semifinal this season, beating Michigan 51-45 last week. The third-seed Horned Frogs face No. 1 Georgia for a national crown January 9.

Carder, a linebacker who played on special teams with Cleveland in the NFL, made it all possible. It was the boost the program needed to catapult to the Big 12.

TCU first agreed to join the Big East in 2012, before the more coveted offer materialized. It was in the Mountain West before leaving, winning every regular season game the final two years leading to the Rose Bowl win with Andy Dalton at quarterback.

Coach Gary Patterson certainly also had a lot to do with the program's rise, almost qualifying for the CFP himself after sharing the Big 12 championship with Baylor in 2014. Ohio State vaulted from fifth into the playoff after crushing Wisconsin.

The Horned Frogs plummeted from third to sixth, despite not playing the final weekend. Third-string quarterback Cardale Jones led the Buckeyes to a national championship in the CFP's first year.

Patterson was 181-79 in 20 complete seasons in several conferences, starting with a bowl loss and ending with his resignation eight games into the 2021 season. His message and mentality grew stale.

TCU tried to do what Cincinnati did last season and qualify to the CFP from a league outside the Power Five, to no avail. The Bearcats are the only program to successfully do so, although the Horned Frogs' single-season story is more shocking.

In the big picture, TCU's achievement isn't quite as impressive. Have you even heard of the American Athletic Conference?

The Bearcats pulled a Horned Frog and are one of four programs headed to join TCU in the Big 12, the most recent domino in a national landscape that likely isn't done changing. The conference was left with no choice but to respond after losing two of college football's biggest cash cows.

The departure of Nebraska and Colorado opened the door for the Horned Frogs in the Big 12. Status in the Big 12 allowed the Horned Frogs to maintain a spot in this year's CFP, despite an overtime loss to Kansas State in the conference championship game.

The Big 12 didn't have a championship game in 2014.

The announced move to shift to a 12-team playoff is a mistake. It's too many games for college kids on college campuses, it doesn't matter if it's only for a few teams.

Education should equate to more protection. Name, image and likeness is not enough, they're not professionals, yet.

Realignment dominos might ultimately have an impact there as well, with whispers of a super conference not even affiliated with the NCAA. You could go ahead and not call them students, but why and how would they be representing universities?

It would have to be like the NBA's new version of the G-League, which wouldn't necessarily be all bad. The fabric of college football as we know it would be shredded.

Nobody wanted NIL before because players were perceived as greedy. It doesn't matter that the floodgates have opened now even, anybody who thinks 12 is good is greedy.

Plus, a chance to play doesn't mean eight more teams will have any legitimate chance to actually win a crown. One of the top four teams won't not win the championship often enough to justify the setup with 12 teams.

There will be upsets, often to further clear a path for a Georgia, Alabama or Ohio State. Maybe Louisiana State.

For TCU, however, this season is the type of building block for a program that can lead to an entrenched stay among the most elite, especially with an expanded playoff format. But don't count on it, this is more likely lightning in a bottle.

Sonny Dykes wasn't afraid to take the helm for an underdog, without many of the advantages of a blue blood program. He learned it could be done with mentor Mike Leach as an assistant at Texas Tech.

Dykes certainly boosted the offense. The up tempo Horned Frogs score 41.1 points per game and rush for 5.4 yards per carry as the Max Duggan-led attack averages 270 yards passing and 474 overall. Duggan was the king of the comeback in the regular season, finishing runner-up for the Heisman Trophy.

TCU had 488 yards of offense against Michigan, including 263 on the ground. Quentin Johnson, who scored a 76-yard touchdown against the Wolverines, is pegged among the top receivers in the NFL Draft.

Ohio State's CJ Stroud tossed four touchdowns with 348 yards against quarterback Stetson Bennett's defending champion Bulldogs in the other semifinal.

TCU allows 395 yards per game, but shut Donovan Edwards down in the semifinal, with the exception of a 54-yard burst. The Horned Frogs forced a turnover on downs and recovered a fumble after the Wolverines advanced inside the 5-yard line.

TCU allowed a few chunk passes, but pick-sixed JJ McCarthy on two occasions as corner Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson leads a talented secondary. Yes, he's the nephew.

More important than numbers, the Horned Frogs matched or surpassed the Wolverines' physicality in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Michigan's offensive line won the Joe Moore Award as the top unit in college football for the second straight season and the defense allowed 35 more points to TCU than average.

The Horned Frogs, in the Big 12 because of Patterson, won the conference in 2014, before beating Mississippi in the Peach Bowl. Dykes helped them take the next step, after they were tabbed to finish seventh in the Big 12 in the preseason.

Other than Oklahoma, TCU is the only team from the Big 12 play in the CFP. The Sooners and Texas, which won a championship in 2005, are leaving for the Southeastern Conference.

It has to be exactly what TCU had in mind, after Carder made it possible to consider. The Horned Frogs parlayed a near-interception all the way to an opportunity to play in the CFP final.

There's only one more step to take.

mhorn@gannett.com

419-307-4892

Twitter: @MatthewHornNH

This article originally appeared on Fremont News-Messenger: Max Duggan has Tank Carder to thank for TCU CFP opportunity