Jul. 27—It's cliché, but we are indeed living in interesting times. We remain in a transition period as we navigate the muddy waters of a post-pandemic world.

Workplaces are adjusting to tremendous flux, the labor market remains extremely tight, inflation is the highest it's been in decades, gasoline prices are at historically high levels, housing prices remain high, consumer confidence is low and Russia is waging war in Ukraine — further exacerbating a global energy and supply chain shock.

Many believe we are currently in a recession or swiftly heading toward one. Historically, economists have had a generally clear and shared understanding of what recession means: primarily a decline in gross domestic product for two or more successive quarters (as is the current situation).

However, the White House challenged the generally accepted definition just this week. Instead, it stated, "The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) — the official recession scorekeeper — defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months.

The variables the committee typically tracks include real personal income minus government transfers, employment, various forms of real consumer spending, and industrial production." While it may feel like splitting hairs, it may also bring an important point: the anticipated recession differs from all others before it on many levels.

For example, real retail sales growth is negative compared to last year; however, 2021 retail sales were significantly higher than in years past. Thus, it was likely never realistic to expect growth to continue at the breakneck pace in retail that we saw during the pandemic. Meanwhile, economic optimists (yes, they exist) point to solid job growth and low unemployment. These points are quickly countered by negative real wage growth and worries about the number of individuals who left the labor market during the pandemic, further straining the workforce.

While we are all deeply troubled and affected by the high inflation numbers, that outcome was also predictable in some ways. COVID considerably contracted global supply chains, and the demand for goods increased in an almost whiplash fashion. In fact, the last two years marked the first time in recent history where demand for goods exceeded demand for services.

Now, the Fed is understandably raising interest rates to force a cooling of inflation and the economy as a whole — making a recession not necessarily market-driven but a government reaction that may be seen in history as the long tail of COVID.

There are arguments to be made about both the strengths and the weaknesses of this particular economy, and one can certainly see why current consumer sentiment may be sour on it, even if there are reasons to be hopeful: continued low unemployment, decreasing (albeit slowly) gasoline prices and signs that inflation may have peaked to name a few.

But does shaky confidence equate to a recession or contribute to the severity of it?

Are we heading toward a brief recession or "just" a period of economic transition, and are the "vibes" that many of us feel just feelings of uncertainty marking a new economic period?

The truth is that only time will tell, but it would seem that a prolonged recession still does not have to be a foregone conclusion at this point — at least, we should all hope so.

Matt McCauley is chief executive officer of Networks Northwest.