'We may end up in a Cold War with the Chinese': Eurasia Group President
President of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media Ian Bremmer joins On The Move to discuss the impact of the coronavirus and the role it will have in the election process in the United States.
Video Transcript
JULIE HYMAN: Right now I want to bring in Ian Bremmer. He is the President of the Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Ian, [AUDIO OUT] thanks so much for joining us. Now, at the beginning of the year, we talked about your top risks for 2020.
And you now have amended those and updated those, given this unprecedented risk we have from coronavirus. So talk to us about your first risk, in particular, which I remember acutely discussing it with you back in January that we could have some sort of contested election come November. How does coronavirus affect that and, in your view, make that risk even higher?
IAN BREMMER: It certainly makes it much more challenging in the sense that the election process itself is going to have to be changed. I mean, clearly, turnout is going to be depressed in this environment. We already see a lot of primaries that are being pushed back.
And you're going to have to have some kind of vote by mail or vote electronically. Those decisions will be taken by individual states. As they are taken, they will be politicized. This is a hyperpolitical environment. It's also-- it looks like Biden is going to be the nominee, of course. We already know what happens.
It feels like years ago, but it was only weeks ago when the impeachment process ended and not in a conviction in the Senate. And that was all about Biden and the effort to try to bring investigations against them from Ukraine. That's not going to be over.
But what I will say, though, over the next few weeks, first of all, I expect that Trump's approval ratings the next couple of weeks are going to go up. He is presiding over the largest fiscal stimulus in America's history, getting it done in bipartisan fashion. He is also taking the lead in a fight against the worst sort of crisis-- in the worst crisis that we've ever seen in our lifetimes, certainly since World War II.
And even though a lot of people hate him-- and so you're not going to see a rally around the flag effect like you did with Bush after 9/11-- I suspect he's going to see a bump, similarly to you've seen in South Korea, in France, in Italy, and a whole bunch of countries where people are scared and there's your leader. Now, if he were being re-elected in a few weeks, I wouldn't worry about the election being contested. I think Trump would feel pretty good about it. He'd go in and he'd probably win.
But it's November that he's being re-elected, potentially. And I think it's very hard to imagine that he's going to be seen as-- as successful over the next three to six months as he will be over the next, say, two to three weeks. And that, of course, first of all, it makes it much more likely that we end up in a Cold War with the Chinese and-- and the potential to need to have someone to blame for this, you know, it's a war. It's a war on a foreign virus, a Chinese virus.
But it also makes it more likely that the election process is thoroughly delegitimized and messed with. And that, I think, is a real concern. It's really unfortunate-- final thing I'll say on this-- it's really unfortunate that the worst crisis of our lifetimes happens with the most divisive leader of our lifetimes in an election cycle. That's just unfortunate. And you know, you can't pick 'em.
DAN HOWLEY: Hey, Ian, Dan Howley here. We were just talking about China and kind of the back and forth that the US and the company are having-- the country are having between each other saying, you know, this is a US plot. The US-- Trump saying it's the Chinese virus. What does this do to the already frayed relationship between the two countries? And does this kind of put any hopes of a full trade deal, beyond the phase one, just completely out of sight?
IAN BREMMER: Yes to the last question, that's easy. In terms of what it can do, there are two things it is doing. There's this one thing it can do. The two things that it is doing is it extends the decoupling of the US and Chinese economies from the technology sector deeper into manufacturing and services. A whole lot of American companies now that are going to have to lay off people.
They're not-- they're going to try to lay them off from China, right? I mean, they want a just-in-case supply chain, not a just-in-time supply chain. It's going to be patriotic to ensure that your Americans are taken care of. And Trump is going to support that because the virus started in China. We can't trust this. Do you really want your expats there? All this kind of thing, right? So that's-- that's one thing that will happen.
A second thing that will happen is that China will have a lot more influence over a bunch of other countries, including our allies. You know, we know that China is an economic superpower, soon to surpass the United States. We know they are a technology superpower, that's fairly [? of late. ?] But no one would have said, before the coronavirus crisis, that China was a superpower in soft power.
I think you now have to start thinking about that. Because I actually think that the Chinese response to coronavirus, not the cover up for the first month, but how they were able to get their country locked down, how they were able to use their surveillance society, the data that they have over people, the control they have over citizens to ensure that they got a massive outbreak lockdowned and could restart their economy and get people actually on the streets again, that is going to work. And it's going to work while the Americans and Europeans watch our health care systems get overwhelmed.
And that is truly unfortunate for the Americans. And it means a lot of countries-- especially as the Chinese are now actually leaning into humanitarian support, which is not what they've done historically, this is a good time for them, that they know what they're doing. So that's the second thing that is happening.
There's a third thing that might happen. And the thing that might happen is we might end up in a Cold War with the Chinese. I hope it doesn't happen. But if the Trump administration decides that that's what they want-- and by the way, the last couple of press conferences have not-- have not pointed in that direction. They've shown Trump saying, well, they're still buying all these goods for us, even though we know they're not going to actually pay the $200 billion for ag this year. They're not going to meet that.
But Trump was giving them credit for it. Why would he do that when he's talking about the Chinese virus? Trump is-- Trump looked like he did not want to actually launch a new set of tariffs against the Chinese, doesn't want to rip up the phase one trade deal, doesn't want to explode this relationship. He just wants to be able to say this came from China, guys. Remember, it came from China.
There are people in his administration that are much more focused on the potential of Cold War. I put Pompeo in that camp. I put Navarro in that camp, maybe even Lighthizer in that camp, but I wouldn't put Trump in that camp, at least not yet. That could change as his electoral fortunes change. Let's watch that space.
- Ian, you rightfully point out that globalization was already kind of on the bubble, and there were a lot of criticisms here, right, when you think about the intertwined supply chain, even the health care system, and inter-- interstate travel, intercountry travel. When you think about the long-term consequences for the US, as you point out that Trump is very likely to experience a boost in approval rating, perhaps re-election, how do you think fundamentally the US government will shift? As you point out, China has been very good with their authoritarian approach, at least in the last few weeks in dealing with this virus. Will there suddenly be, you know, more of that sort of approach in a way that we have not seen from the US and countries like Italy?
IAN BREMMER: I mean, definitely you're going to see more efforts to have more intrusive monitoring, in terms of technology, of American citizens. And tech companies will be more willing to work hand-in-hand with the US government in that way. That'll be a bigger challenge, and there'll be more resistance to it in Europe than the United States. Europeans are much more focused on privacy, and they don't have the companies. The Americans do.
That also means that the tech clash you were starting to see-- there are two things that we used to hear a lot about that you're not hearing about anymore, one's climate, change right? No one's talking about climate change right now. The other's tech clash. Now, we all need those tech companies.
We're stuck at home. We need Amazon. We need Apple. We need Netflix. These companies are critical to keeping the country running, right? And so I think the fact that our government is going to lean into those companies, those companies are going to making a ton of cash actually implies that there will be less regulatory resistance to those firms being able to do what they want to do. And that-- that certainly facilitates the direction of policy that you were implying.
RICK NEWMAN: Ian, it's Rick Newman. What would you advise Joe Biden to do if you got the chance? Should he be out attacking Trump now and presenting his alternative coronavirus response plan? Or should he just kind of lay low, rest up for a couple of months, and wait to see what happens in the summer and fall?
IAN BREMMER: I think that this is a time when you should avoid politics as much as possible. Again, if the elections were in two or three weeks, he wouldn't be able to. They're in November. Biden is going to get the nomination.
We just heard that Sanders is planning on being on the debate stage in April. No one's going to watch, but he can be on the stage. Biden should probably go to that-- that debate, just to be nice, but it doesn't matter, right? Biden has-- no one is paying-- you are the first question I have gotten on Biden in a week, OK? And that is appropriate.
This is a matter of whether or not the United States tips into another depression. This is a matter or not-- a matter of whether or not New York City's health care has to triage people coming into the ICU, whether it's a matter of tens of thousands of deaths or hundreds of thousands of deaths in the United States. This is a very good time for Biden to be as unifying as humanly possible.
JULIE HYMAN: Ian Bremmer, it is always great to get your perspective. We really appreciate it. Ian Bremmer is the President of the Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. We hope to speak with you again soon. Stay well. Ian. Thank you.
