McConnell’s health, what happens next raises stakes even higher for KY’s next governor

Politics was already front of mind for many in the Bluegrass state with this year’s hotly contested governor’s race dominating the airwaves.

But talk of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s health and what it might mean for Kentucky, including this year’s race between popular Democratic incumbent Governor Andy Beshear and rising GOP star Attorney General Daniel Cameron, has reignited after a second prolonged pause Wednesday in front of reporters.

Many established Republicans have refused to speak on the record about McConnell’s health, but those with long ties to the party have uniformly expressed confidence in McConnell’s ability to lead the Senate GOP Caucus as well as carry on in elected office.

Some in the state’s far right, many of whom have expressed disdain for McConnell as an alleged moderate, are calling on him to step down.

Trey Grayson, former Republican Secretary of State, was at the Northern Kentucky luncheon event Wednesday where McConnell spoke to local leaders. The said the McConnell he saw in a speech followed up by crowd questions was “fine” from a health standpoint.

“He spoke for about 20 minutes, no notes, and took a range of questions from the crowd through a moderator. When I heard that he had one of those episodes again, I was surprised. He had been fine,” Grayson said.

Grayson expressed some concern that McConnell might be “pushing himself” too hard, but said he has faith in the leader to stay at the helm of the Senate GOP.

“Maybe he’s pushed himself a little too hard, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be the leader of the conference. I think it’s really important that he be the leader, because I’m not sure who else can navigate the politics of the next few months in preventing an unnecessary shutdown while at the same time making sure that the government spends less money, which is an important priority of the party. I know I want him in the room navigating all that, and I think he’s still capable of it,” Grayson said.

Some Republicans to the right of Grayson don’t hold the same opinion.

Bobbie Coleman, Hardin County GOP Chair, is the leader of one of the largest local parties to have officially censured McConnell. She told the Herald-Leader now is the “time for him to step down.”

“It’s kind of scary that we have somebody as the head of our Senate who’s not all there,” Coleman said.

Andrew Cooperrider, a second-place finisher in the recent Republican primary for state Treasurer and a figure within the state’s anti-McConnell “Liberty” GOP faction, also called on McConnell to resign. He raised the possibility of McConnell staying in office as having something to do with the governor’s race and that office’s sway over who would get appointed to the Senate if McConnell needed to step down.

“It’s obvious to me that McConnell is not mentally there. I understand the politics of being concerned about who ends up replacing you, but at the end of the day I’d rather have somebody competent in office than somebody not... At the risk of sounding crass, it’s like having somebody order food for us that won’t be here when the check arrives,” Cooperrider said.

Al Cross, a longtime political observer and journalist in Kentucky, said McConnell’s fellow senators would likely hold out judgment on McConnell’s health until they see him.

“If this had happened in Washington today and the Senate were in session, I think there’d be a lot of calls for him to step down as leader. I think that most Republican Senators will want to look him in the eye and make their own judgment in person as opposed to watching a video from Northern Kentucky,” Cross said. “Therefore, I think it’s too early to say he’s headed for the door.”

Fellow GOP leaders waxed confident on McConnell Wednesday, saying they spoke with the leader and he “sounded like himself.”

Governor replaces

It’s true that whoever wins in the contest between Cameron and Beshear would play a significant role in appointing a replacement should any Kentucky Senator need to vacate their post. The contest has potentially serious implications for the political landscape in a 50-50 U.S. Senate where Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote.

The law on the books states that, should a vacancy occur, any governor must appoint a short-term replacement from a list of three names provided by the party of the outgoing senator; both McConnell and Junior Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are Republicans. Some time after the vacancy is filled, under the law, a special election would be held.

However, multiple Kentucky Democrats have speculated that Beshear would challenge the law — by appointing a Democrat and daring Republicans to sue, stalling the appointment or legally challenging the law.

There was some speculation following Wednesday’s incident that McConnell, in the hopes of keeping his own seat Republican, would vacate his seat and the party would offer up Cameron as a name for Beshear to replace him with — thereby incentivizing Beshear to appoint his GOP challenger and ensure his own victory in November.

However, general election ballots were already certified this week by Secretary of State Michael Adams and a law dictating how party nominees could be replaced makes it unlikely Republicans could replace Cameron on the ballot given the timing. KRS 118.105 states general election nominees can only be replaced by their respective party if, more than 10 days before the general election ballot is certified, a vacancy occurs “because of death or severe disabling condition.”

Though the Secretary of State’s office did not offer comment on the matter, the law appears to bar any person from replacing any gubernatorial candidate on the ballot at this point in the race.

Cameron has strong ties to McConnell. He began his political career as a freshman McConnell Scholar at the University of Louisville when he interned at the leader’s office and later worked as his legal counsel.

During the GOP primary, Cameron made a point to distance himself from McConnell and tout his endorsement by former president Donald Trump, who has publicly feuded with McConnell. In the general election, his campaign hired McConnell’s chief of staff in a senior role.

But Cameron told the Herald-Leader, just hours before McConnell’s incident, in response to a question if he’d have interest in the Senate seat that he’s “made [his] intentions clear,” in running for governor.

On Thursday, Cameron said McConnell was at an event with an Indiana GOP congressman Jim Banks that same day and “had a strong grasp” on issues there. Cameron offered little further comment.

“I’ve had the occasion over the last couple of weeks to be with him and you know, certainly appreciate him supporting this campaign. And I’m grateful for his leadership,” Cameron said.

The politics of the governor’s race

Though many have speculated Beshear would appoint a Democrat if a Senate vacancy were to occur, Cross said it could come with political risk.

“At this point, Beshear has avoided the partisan label… That would be a very partisan act, to appoint a Democrat in the face of a Republican-backed law to appoint a Republican Senator. I doubt that Beshear would be willing to risk it,” Cross said.

Tres Watson, former spokesperson for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said he didn’t think the discussion around McConnell would significantly shift opinion among Kentucky voters ahead of November’s election. Cross agreed that as of yet, the situation is unlikely to play a huge role in voter’s behavior in their choice for governor.

Beshear has remained hesitant to comment on what path he would take should a vacancy occur. When asked about what he’d do, he insists that “there is no vacancy” to comment on.

“Senator McConnell has said he’s going to serve out his term and I believe him, so I’m not going to speculate about something that hasn’t happened and isn’t going to happen,” Beshear said at a press conference Thursday.

“It’s not like Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul have won by, you know, 1% or 2%,” Watson said. “Democrats have not been within single digits since 2008. The people clearly want a Republican rep to represent them in the US Senate, but the Beshear family has a track record of appointing against the will of voters so, I think there’s a rational concern that he wouldn’t follow what the what the will of people is.”

Watson made note of the last time a vacancy in a statewide elected office occurred where a governor had to appoint a replacement: In 2010, when Grayson left his Secretary of State post to run for Senate, Beshear’s father and former governor Steve Beshear appointed Democrat Elaine Walker.