McGuire went by analytics in decisions at NC State
Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire on Monday said he made an analytics-based decision not to use timeouts when North Carolina State was running nearly seven minutes off the clock in the fourth quarter of the Wolfpack's 27-14 victory Saturday in Raleigh.
"If you can't save a full 40 seconds, the way we believe is that you shouldn't use them," McGuire said. "There wasn't a point (at which you had an opportunity) to save the 40 seconds."
The score was 27-14 when NC State took over with 8:38 left in the game. The Wolfpack ran nine plays, including six runs, before having to punt the ball back to Tech with 1:53 remaining. The Red Raiders didn't use their timeouts until they were back on defense, calling them with 53, 47 and 43 seconds left.
"The problem again is, when is it going to help you?" McGuire said. "If it doesn't help you get a full 40 seconds, you should not use them. Now, old-school thinking, the first thing everybody's going to (say) is, 'Call a timeout on third down, and then they're going to have to punt.' But again, if you've got 25 seconds (saved) versus 40 seconds, you're losing seconds there."
The Tech coach acknowledged second-guessing himself to some degree.
"You get a lot of criticism (based) on old-school thinking," he said. "You hear commentators and everything like that, and yet, they're not going back to the games that were lost because you used a timeout before you should have. ...
"I've always gone by my gut. If I go back to that moment, I probably call a timeout, play defense and see if we get the ball back (for) two possessions."
However, as in-game decision-making has become more analytics-based, McGuire said his thinking has evolved. He described Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin and Baylor coach Dave Aranda, the latter with whom he worked the past two seasons, as being "100 percent analytics" in their decision-making. He said his staff has taken the same approach in the first three games, which is a change for him.
"I haven't been (analytics-driven) until last year," McGuire said, "and I saw the benefits of what coach Aranda did."
More:Monday with McGuire: 10 talking points
McGuire said his staff meets each Thursday with Rob Ash, the director of coaching development for Championship Analytics Incorporated. Ash was a college head coach for 36 years at Juniata, Drake and Montana State, compiling a record of 247-137-5.
Championship Analytics' website says it was founded in Atlanta, Georgia in 2011 "with the goal of integrating world-class analytics with a coach’s insight to take the guesswork out of in-game decision making. CAI invented and patented the CAI Game Book — a first of its kind playbook that delivers the proper decision for any scenario from the opening kick to the end of the game — customized for the match-up, no computer required."
It says Ash "is responsible for creating CAI’s football strategy curriculum and for working directly with CAI client head coaches to improve our clients’ in-game football strategy performance."
McGuire said he also confers with his most experienced coaches — defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter and running backs and special-teams coach Kenny Perry among them — in making real-time, in-game decisions.
"It's a mixture of all of us," he said. 'We've got some old coaches, so it's a mixture of DeRuyter, coach Perry, myself. And one of the guys in the box — Kirby (Ennis), our D-line (graduate assistant coach) — is right there with the book. He's going through saying, 'fourth-and-8 is a go.' 'fourth-and-1 is a go.' "
Tech went for it on fourth-and-8 from its own 35 on the second play of the fourth quarter. McGuire's rationale was that the Red Raiders needed two touchdowns to win the game and there was no guarantee they would get the ball back for two possessions, given that NC State had chewed up clock in the third quarter with a 14-play, 90-yard drive. (The Red Raiders actually wound up getting four more possessions.)
McGuire noted that using analytics backfired in the second quarter. Facing 4th-and-1 at the NC State 28-yard line, Tech decided to go. Donovan Smith threw an interception that Wolfpack cornerback Aydan White returned 84 yards for a touchdown.
"If you go back and I'd played old school," McGuire said, "maybe I should have, on fourth-and-1 at the 28, kicked the field goal and it wouldn't have been a pick-six. It would have been 13-3.
"You can dissect that game up and down. Because old-school football, they punted on fourth-and-1. Should I have kicked the field goal from the 28 earlier in the game? We went for it and ended up giving up six points."
College football
Who: Texas Tech vs. Texas
When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium
Records: Texas 2-1, 0-0 in the Big 12; Texas Tech 2-1, 0-0
Rankings (AP/coaches poll): Texas 22/19; Texas Tech unranked
Line: Texas by 6
Last game: Texas 41, UT-San Antonio 20; North Carolina State 27, Texas Tech 14
Last meeting: Texas 70, Texas Tech 35 last year in Austin.
TV: ESPN
Fast fact: About 500 tickets remained, Tech officials said, at the end of Monday's business day.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Joey McGuire says he went by analytics in decisions at NC State
