New memo details how Sen. Kyrsten Sinema expects to win reelection in 2024

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., meets with migrant aid nonprofit leaders at the Casa Alitas Drexel Center in Tucson on Sept. 8, 2023.
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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is pitching her still-undeclared campaign to prospective donors as built on overwhelmingly winning independent voters and siphoning more support from Republicans than Democrats.

Her plan is outlined in two paragraphs of a two-page document obtained by NBC News and relies on framing the nominees of both major parties as “extremists, as expected.”

Sinema’s memo to potential supporters includes a pie chart suggesting she could claim 60% to 70% of Arizona’s independent voters. Her campaign sees her taking 10% to 20% of Democratic voters and 25% to 35% of Republicans.

“Kyrsten Sinema has proven she knows how to win in Arizona. As an Independent she appeals to voters who refuse to identify with either political party or dislike candidates nominated in partisan primaries who cater to the political fringes,” the memo said.

It comes as former Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who is a lightning rod for partisan-charged controversy, is widely expected to enter the race, perhaps within weeks, and as Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., faces no prominent challengers for Democrats.

Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, a Republican, has been in the race since April, though he is considered unlikely to defeat the nationally watched Lake in a GOP primary.

A Sinema spokesperson declined to comment on the matter Monday. Lamb was not immediately available for comment.

Hannah Goss, a spokesperson for Gallego’s campaign, largely ignored the memo and pointed to polling showing Gallego as the favorite at the moment.

“Only one person is traveling the state and talking directly to Arizonans about creating good paying jobs, cutting the cost of prescription drugs, and taking care of our veterans, and that’s Ruben Gallego,” she said. “He’s laser-focused

Since Sinema, I-Ariz., left the Democratic Party in December, she consistently has deflected talk of her political plans, but her quarterly campaign finance reports make clear she has been quietly running for a second term for months.

In that time, her fundraising, which has usually been among the best in the Senate, has fallen behind Gallego’s.

He topped her in campaign cash in each of the first two quarters reported so far, though she maintains a cash advantage based on previous fundraising.

The Sinema memo surfaces as the third quarter of the fundraising calendar ends this week.

Independent voters make up the largest single group of registered voters in Arizona, about 35% as of July, according to the Secretary of State. About 34% are Republicans and 30% are Democrats.

Among those who vote in general elections, independents are typically the smallest segment. Election analysts infer from Arizona’s results, major-party turnout and polling that many independent voters have supported their major-party options.

Sinema’s expected candidacy represents a potentially rare, third-party option for Arizonans.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: How Sen. Kyrsten Sinema expect to win reelection detailed in memo