Memorial Day 2022: Jersey Shore summer tourism depends on these 5 things

In Seaside Heights, Coin Castle owner Wayne Cimorelli hopes he can explain away the sluggish spring to the cool weather. In Belmar, Tandem Bike Inn owner Mike Hayes says weekends through July are already booked.

And in Ocean Grove, Comfort Zone owner Steve Mandeville is doing the best he can to prepare his gift shop for a summer tourism season that is sure to be … what?

"So many variables," Mandeville said. "Between the price of gas and inflation. But people are dying to get out. But then again, COVID rates are going up."

The Jersey Shore's tourism season gets its unofficial start this Memorial Day weekend, and operators are trying to get a handle on an economy that has more moving parts than a Ferris wheel.

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Visitors have jobs and money to spend, but gasoline prices are at record highs. The labor shortage that crippled businesses last year is easing, but help-wanted Facebook posts abound. Another strain of COVID is making the rounds, but it appears to be less severe.

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The Shore offers relief: the beach, the soft sand, the warm sun, the rhythmic ocean waves. So long as Mother Nature lends a hand.

After an abbreviated season last year, The Stone Pony in Asbury Park has a full slate of more than 30 concerts, Caroline O'Toole, its manager, said this week at Monmouth County's annual tourism kickoff press conference.

"I look forward to probably the most hours I'm going to work in a long time," O'Toole said, before wondering aloud what's so wrong with winter.

Other than darkness, cold and snow, nothing. But the Shore's economy clearly does better in the summer.

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Visitors spent $7 billion in Ocean and Monmouth counties last summer, inching closer to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, when they spent $7.6 billion, according to a report by Tourism Economics, a research firm.

Can the Shore make up lost ground in 2022? Here are five things to watch:

1. People to see, places to go

Visitors who have spent the better part of the past two summers trying to keep their social distance could feel anxious to travel again.

Financially, they are well positioned. New Jersey's unemployment rate has tumbled during the past year from 7% in April 2021 to 4.1% last month, and wages and salaries have climbed, according to government statistics.

For example, Bank of America, with 11,000 New Jersey employees, said this week it would increase its minimum wage to $22 an hour.

Add it up: Early bookings at Tandem Bike Inn, an eight-room bed and breakfast in Belmar, are strong, even though its owners have increased prices slightly to keep up with their expenses.

"Last year we got more traffic from people who wanted to get out and go on vacation after being stuck in the house a couple of years, but they didn’t want to get on a plane," said Mike Hayes, the innkeeper. "We're booking up very quickly."

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2. Elephant, meet the room

Near-record gasoline prices will force motorists, boaters and air travelers to dig deeper.

Regular gas prices in New Jersey on Wednesday averaged $4.76 a gallon, up from $3.06 a year ago. Diesel prices averaged $6.26 a gallon, almost twice as much as a year ago, AAA reported.

Air fares are climbing, too. In March, the average round-trip ticket was 41% higher than a year ago, according to Airlines Reporting Corp., a researcher.

Gas prices have been triggered by rising demand after COVID, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and, more recently, disruptions at U.S. oil refineries, said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service.

The Shore's tourism industry could benefit. A survey in April by AAA found 45% of New Jerseyans said they would make fewer or shorter trips because of higher gas prices, meaning they could trade in their roadtrips to North Carolina or Maine and stay closer to home.

"They're going to make this their vacation," Monmouth County Commissioner Thomas A. Arnone predicted. "Quite frankly, why would you go to another destination?"

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3. Labor crunch

Tourism employers, desperate for help last summer, said they are having more luck finding workers this year.

Helping their cause: Many international students, who last summer couldn't travel to the U.S. because of COVID restrictions, have secured J-1 visas again, allowing them to work seasonal jobs.

Morey's Piers in Wildwood, Cape May County, expects to employ about 500 international students from more than 30 countries, said Denise Beckson, the company's vice president of government relations and human resources.

It's a reversal from last year, when Morey's hired about 60% of the international students it hoped for and supervisors pitched in flipping burgers, taking tickets and operating rides, Beckson said.

Workers still are in heavy demand. Lou Smith, owner of Blend on Main and Peach Pit Cafe in Manasquan, posted a help-wanted ad on his Facebook page earlier this month looking for servers and wondered where all of the professionals have gone.

"It’s definitely better this year than last year," Wayne Cimorelli at Coin Castle in Seaside Heights said. "But it’s a challenge."

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4. Season three of the pandemic

Since last summer, New Jersey has shfited from a COVID pandemic that brings with it severe restrictions to a COVID endemic that remains a threat, like the flu, but doesn't disrupt daily life.

Case in point? This week, as operators gear up for Memorial Day weekend, health providers are wading through another COVID wave with nearly 5,000 new cases a day and nearly 900 hospitalizations, according to state figures.

The virus seems to be relatively less severe this go around, but people should continue to take precautions by getting vaccinated and wearing face masks, particularly in crowded, indoor settings like airplanes and bars, said Dr. Edward Liu, infectious diseases section chief for Jersey Shore University Medical Center in Neptune.

"I think people just have to make more of an individual decision about what they're comfortable with in terms of risks," Liu said.

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5. The biggest factor of all

Even if everything goes right — consumers spend money, gas prices ease, employers find help, and COVID becomes a minor nuisance — the weather always has the final say.

If recent summers are an indication, New Jerseyans should brace for extreme weather. The past four summers have been among the hottest on a record that dates to 1895. And last summer saw 13 tornados, said David Robinson, the state climatologist.

The National Weather Service predicts this summer in New Jersey will be hotter than average.

"It probably encourages people to go to the beach," Robinson said.

Michael L. Diamond is a business reporter who has been writing about the New Jersey economy and health care industry for more than 20 years. He can be reached at mdiamond@gannettnj.com.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Memorial Day 2022: Jersey Shore summer tourism depends on 5 things