Memorial Day weekend no time for COVID complacency, Austin Public Health warns

Austin Public Health is warning residents not to be too risky as they head into Memorial Day weekend, explaining that coronavirus infection rates are low but increasing locally.

It's easy for many of us to put thoughts about the lingering pandemic behind us as we board boats for a long day on Lady Bird Lake, or enjoy a poolside grill-out with family and friends at home.

But if patterns this year continue to mimic those seen in 2021, it could be a few too many holiday gatherings that kickstart another summer surge, health leaders say. Infection rates this time last year also were relatively low, but rose rapidly following Fourth of July holiday gatherings.

Memorial Day in Austin: Here's what you need to know about weather, lake safety

Many were still maintaining social distance on Memorial Day last year, but those practices waned by mid-summer as vaccines became more widely available.

"Infections are increasing," Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County health authority, said earlier this week. "Community transmission is higher than it's been in recent weeks. The positivity rate is up, but hospitalizations haven't surged."

Austin Public Health reported a rolling seven-day average of new daily COVID-19 hospital admissions of 6.4 on Friday, up from the average of 3.9 at the start of May.

The county's highest seven-day average for new daily hospital admissions during the pandemic was 129 on Jan. 19 this past winter.

Despite the small uptick in the hospitalization average this month, the risk of coronavirus spread in the Austin area is still considered to be low, according to Austin Public Health's guidelines.

This spring, the agency created new risk-based COVID-19 guidelines to align them with ones the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention set in February.

Flying over Memorial Day weekend: Give yourself plenty of time for holiday crowds

In those guidelines, an area's COVID-19 situation is categorized into low, medium and high levels of disease. The recommendations are based on the level of disease spread and hospital resources, and set on a county-by-county basis. They also are based on personal risk factors.

The Austin area, according to the new guidelines, would not shift from the low to medium category unless one of the three key indicators spiked above their new recommended thresholds.

• The first key indicator Austin Public Health continues to monitor in its new guidelines is the community transmission rate, which tracks new cases per 100,000 people over seven days.

The community coronavirus transmission rate on Thursday, the most recent data available, was 179.83. If the area exceeds 200 new cases per 100,000 people, then Austin and Travis County would immediately be in the medium or high level.

The rate was just 68.21 at the start of May, CDC records show.

• For a second indicator, the rolling seven-day average of new daily hospitalizations, the Austin area would move from the low to medium category if that number is between 10 and 19.9. The CDC uses hospitalization data from many Central Texas counties like Hays, Bastrop and Williamson to determine the shift in stages.

• The third key indicator, the percentage of staffed inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients over seven days, was 1% on Friday. That number would need to be higher than 10% before health leaders would consider shifting to a higher category under its guidelines.

"We know this weekend’s celebrations will include many multigenerational gatherings," Walkes said. "These gatherings have been associated with a surge in cases. We know how to prevent the spread of COVID-10. If we get boosted, celebrate outdoors when possible and wear masks indoors to protect those at risk, we can stop the current rise in cases."

Austin and Travis County on Friday had 28 people in the hospital with COVID-19, according to Austin Public Health data.

Of those hospitalized, five of them were in Austin-area intensive care units. That number hit a pandemic record high of 237 on Aug. 22 last summer.

Ventilator use continues to be low in Austin, with just two people reported using them on Friday. The pandemic record high for ventilator use was 174 set on Aug. 29.

Austin Public Health and Travis County health officials have reported 1,546 total deaths from COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic.

What COVID precautions should I be taking over Memorial Day?

Austin Public Health divides its guidelines for the low, medium and high categories into two types of people:

• People up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines (fully vaccinated and boosted, if they qualify for a first booster, or now a second booster if they are 50 or older).

• People who are at risk because of their personal health conditions or not being up-to-date on their vaccines.

Precautions include wearing a well-fitting mask, washing hands and practicing social distancing.

For people up-to-date with their COVID-19 vaccines:

Low: Taking precautions is optional when gathering, dining and shopping.

Medium: Precautions are optional when gathering, dining and shopping. But wear a mask when social distancing is not possible.

High: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

For people who are at risk:

Low: Precautions are optional when gathering, dining and shopping.

Medium: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

High: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin COVID rates are low, but rising, ahead of Memorial Day weekend