Can Memphis football reach bowl eligibility? We break down Tigers' final four opponents
At 4-4, Memphis football enters November with worries if it’ll reach six wins to become bowl eligible for the ninth consecutive season. With four games left, the Tigers need two wins to get there.
The good news is one of the games, North Alabama, is an FCS opponent where the Tigers will be heavy favorites. The bad news is the schedule resumes with a tough opponent Saturday (2:30 p.m., ESPN2) hosting No. 25 UCF (6-2, 3-1).
Should fans be worried about Memphis reaching a bowl game? We break down the Tigers’ remaining games along with odds on their chances of winning.
UCF (Saturday, home)
Memphis fell short in sending a departing AAC team with a loss thanks to Houston’s fourth quarter comeback. The Tigers get a second try with UCF, the rival that’s haunted them the most over the last five seasons.
Biggest hurdle: UCF’s run-first offense is lethal but its defense might be a greater challenge. The Knights lead the nation in red-zone defense and have allowed just two opponents to score over 20 points. That’s trouble for a Memphis offense that’s been inconsistent finishing drives.
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Key Player: Senior receiver Ryan O’Keefe is dangerous with his speed either downfield or on jet sweeps. Memphis knows firsthand since he scored twice against the Tigers last season.
Advantage for Memphis: UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is day-to-day with a possible concussion suffered in last week’s win over Cincinnati. The Tigers’ chances get better against Mikey Keene but the backup has experience playing last season, including last year’s win over Memphis.
Odds of winning: 30%. This is Memphis’ toughest remaining game and a loss brings more pressure to coach Ryan Silverfield at 4-5. The Tigers have thrived at home in big games but an upset will take a complete, 60-minute performance, something Memphis hasn’t shown yet.
Tulsa (Nov. 10, home)
Tulsa gave Cincinnati and Ole Miss tough games in defeat. Memphis should expect a fight as both teams are playing a Thursday night game on short rest.
Biggest hurdle: Tulsa is 18th nationally in passing defense and fourth in the AAC in third down defense. The Golden Hurricane held Ole Miss to just 154 passing yards although they did give up 310 passing yards at home to SMU last week.
Key Player: Senior receiver Keylon Stokes is second in the AAC in receiving yards (924) and receiving yards per game (115.5).
Advantage for Memphis: Tulsa is just 1-3 on the road and 124th in rushing defense. If there was ever a game for the Tigers to get right running the ball, this is it.
Odds of winning: 70%. This is the game Memphis must win. Barring injury, the Tigers will be favored and need to finish off an opponent that’s struggled all season. A loss would be devastating but Memphis should be motivated to avenge last year’s loss a Tulsa.
North Alabama (Nov. 19, home)
Memphis gets a gift for senior night. North Alabama is 1-7 and fired coach Chris Willis on Sunday.
Biggest hurdle: Complacency. Memphis will have nine days between games to get healthy and try not to overlook the Lions, who should be double-digit underdogs.
Key Player: Sophomore ShunDerrick Powell has three games with over 200 rushing yards this season and his 1,115 rushing yards are third most among FCS players.
Advantage for Memphis: How about everything? The Tigers are better on paper and North Alabama will be happy to collect their $325,000 game check for this one.
Odds of winning: 99.9%. Memphis should be celebrating bowl eligibility after this game if this month goes right. The only question is if the Tigers cover the point spread.
SMU (Nov. 26, road)
Memphis has only beaten one AAC team on the road under Silverfield and that’s Navy. Will that change in the regular season finale against SMU?
Biggest hurdle: SMU has the nation’s ninth-ranked passing offense led by quarterback Tanner Mordecai. On the Mustangs’ senior game, expect it to be unleashed against one of the nation’s worst passing defenses.
Key Player: Senior Rashee Rice. The nation’s leader in receiving yards (982) will look for one more audition to boost his NFL Draft stock.
Advantage for Memphis: SMU struggled in November under previous coach Sonny Dykes. Will that continue under new coach Rhett Lashlee? SMU is also ranked 105th in total defense and 117th against the run.
Odds of winning: 40%. Given its road struggles, Memphis needs to secure bowl eligibility before this game. The Mustangs offense will be tough to stop but the Tigers have to match them in being efficient and finishing drives. Memphis can’t be 5-6 heading into this one but even at 6-5, a loss would put them at another 6-6 campaign before the bowl game.
Final assessment
Memphis can still reach bowl eligibility despite its up-and-down season. The Tulsa game will be the one that likely decides if the Tigers are playing in December or not.
Regardless what happens against UCF, a win against Tulsa means fans can start making bowl plans assuming Memphis rolls over North Alabama. It might not be an attractive bowl game but it’ll continue the one streak the program can champion under Silverfield.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Will Memphis football reach bowl eligibility? We explain how
