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Memphis football vs. Arkansas State: Scouting report, score prediction

evan barnes, memphis commercial appeal
·4 min read
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Memphis football returns home to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium after playing its first two games of the season on the road. The Tigers face Arkansas State on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN+).

Memphis (1-1) won last year’s game 55-50 at Arkansas State (1-1) when the Red Wolves had one of the nation’s worst defenses. The “Paint Bucket Bowl” might not carry the same luster as in decades past but Arkansas State will bring a passionate crowd to match the energy of the Tigers’ faithful.

With Memphis prioritizing digital tickets and switching to digital parking passes, fans are encouraged to download both to their phones before arriving at the stadium. Fans are also asked to arrive early in case of delays adjusting to the new system.

Here’s the scouting report for Saturday's game along with a prediction.

Maintain balance

The Tigers showed their potential on offense against Navy with four different receivers having at least 70 yards and eight different players catching at least one pass. They’ll need that balance again Saturday.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Arkansas State after giving up 45 points to No. 3 Ohio State last week. The same could’ve been said for Memphis after losing to Mississippi State although the Tigers redeemed themselves against Navy.

That said, expect Memphis to test the Red Wolves early and often through the air. Seth Henigan and his receivers can use this game to build on their chemistry after the sophomore threw for 415 yards against Navy.

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Run game redemption

Last year’s Arkansas State game saw a career performance for Brandon Thomas, who had 191 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps facing the Red Wolves again can boost the Memphis run game.

Despite the Tigers rushing for 91 ryards against Navy, there was progress with Jay Ducker catching a 37-yard screen pass and Asa Martin having a 45-yard run. However, there was little room to run most of the game and that falls on the offensive line needing to be better creating holes.

Home cooking might get things going but facing a team that allowed the Tigers to have 263 rushing yards a year ago could be a better spark.

Watch the Champ

September 10, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves wide receiver Champ Flemings (7) dodges Ohio State Buckeyes safety Cameron Martinez (13) during the first half of Saturday's game at Ohio Stadium.Mandatory Credit: Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch
September 10, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves wide receiver Champ Flemings (7) dodges Ohio State Buckeyes safety Cameron Martinez (13) during the first half of Saturday's game at Ohio Stadium.Mandatory Credit: Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch

That would be Champ Flemings, who is Arkansas State’s newest receiver-to-watch. The senior is only 5-foot-6 but the Oregon State transfer has over 100 receiving yards in each of his first two games. He’s also fast and great at creating separation.

Arkansas State will deploy Flemings all over the field and Memphis fans know all about small receivers causing trouble. With receiver Te’Vailance Hunt (knee injury) a game-time decision, the key is making sure Flemings doesn’t have a Calvin Austin III-type impact against the Tigers.

Meet Kivon Bennett

Memphis hasn’t faced a stout individual pass rusher in its first two games. The Tigers will face one in Red Wolves senior linebacker Kivon Bennett.

Bennett, who began his career at Tennessee, had eight sacks last season as part of 16 1/2 tackles for loss.  He’ll also line up at defensive end so the Tigers’ offensive line has to keep an eye on him. Memphis allowed four sacks against Navy and they can’t repeat that that facing Bennett and his mates up front.

Takeaway or no takeaway

Memphis has forced turnovers in seven consecutive games. Arkansas State is one of 12 FBS teams without a turnover yet. One of those streaks will end Saturday.

Memphis has five takeaways – three interceptions, two forced fumbles - in its first two games. It’s a safe bet the defense will try to show out at home and Quindell Johnson will try for a third consecutive game with an interception. But Arkansas State being careful means the defense also has to focus on repeating the third down success it had against Navy.

Prediction

Memphis 41, Arkansas State 27: Don’t expect another high-scoring affair like last season. Arkansas State’s defense seems improved but so has Memphis. The Tigers might not crush the Red Wolves but they’ll get their points and at least two takeaways for a balanced game that’ll please the home fans.

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You can reach Evan Barnes on Twitter (@Evan_B) or by email at evan.barnes@commercialappeal.com

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis football vs. Arkansas State scouting report, prediction