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Memphis football vs. Navy scouting report and a score prediction

evan barnes, memphis commercial appeal
·3 min read

Memphis football is going for a fourth consecutive win against Navy. The Tigers (0-1) play against the Midshipmen (0-1) on Saturday (2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network) at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland.

Memphis will look  to end a five-year streak of losing its first conference road game of a season.

A win would be the Tigers' first on the road since Sept. 11 last year at Arkansas State and first AAC road win since beating Navy on Nov. 28, 2020. However, a loss means Memphis' first 0-2 start since 2013.

Here's what to watch for - and a prediction - when Memphis plays Navy.

Maximize drives

Time is precious against Navy because its triple option offense drains the clock. The Tigers averaged 49 plays in the last four games against the Midshipmen so the offensive has to finish drives with points, not punts.

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Memphis can't repeat its five three-and-outs against Mississippi State. The good news is the Tigers had little trouble moving the ball on Navy last season so perhaps they can find that groove again.

Can receivers bounce back?

The Memphis receiving corps didn't leave a good first impression in the post Calvin Austin III era. Expect a better show Saturday after six drops in a 49-23 loss at Mississippi State.

The Midshipmen had issues stopping the Tigers' passing game last season and Eddie Lewis (three catches, 92 yards) was a big reason why. This is another critical audition for the receivers to show they can make plays and help quarterback Seth Henigan carry the offense.

Mississippi State running back Dillon Johnson (23) twists as he is tackled by a Memphis defensive player after a short gain during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Mississippi State running back Dillon Johnson (23) twists as he is tackled by a Memphis defensive player after a short gain during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Get third down stops

Memphis allowed Mississippi State to convert 11 of 13 third downs. What troubled coach Ryan Silverfield more was the Bulldogs were 5-of-8 on third-and-short, or plays involving four yards or less.

Navy's run game will force the Tigers' defense into plenty of short third down situations. Memphis needs to show better tackling than it did against Mississippi State and limit the Midshipmen on first and second down. Forcing Navy to pass on third down - something they rarely do - could play well into the Tigers' hands.

Create takeaways

One positive for Memphis in the opener was the defense forced two takeaways with Quindell Johnson's interception and fumble recovery. It bodes well facing a Navy team that lost three fumbles in its 14-7 loss against Delaware.

Winning the turnover margin has been key for the Tigers' win streak against Navy. Since the Midshipmen had trouble keeping the ball last week, Memphis must capitalize on that to give its offense more time on the field.

Ignore the aura

When Memphis won 10-7 at Navy two years ago, there was no crowd or pageantry to distract them due to Navy's COVID-19 policies. The crowd will be in full swing Saturday, even if some are disheartened by the Midshipmen's opening loss.

The Tigers are 2-8 on the road under Silverfield and haven't shown the same poise and execution they've had at home. This isn't an intimidating Navy team but the Tigers have to stay focused and make a statement instead of letting the Midshipmen give their crowd hope with an inspired performance.

Prediction

Memphis 24, Navy 17: The Tigers should play better against a more manageable opponent. There's still questions if they can be consistent and efficient on the road but fortunately, Navy has far more questions after its offense looked broken last week. Look for the Tigers to get right in a hard-fought win.

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You can reach Evan Barnes on Twitter (@Evan_B) or by email at evan.barnes@commercialappeal.com

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis football vs. Navy scouting report, score prediction