Memphis football vs. Tulsa scouting report, score prediction
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Memphis football's four-game losing streak had more fans groaning after losing to Central Florida. But the Tigers can fix things hosting Tulsa.
A win Thursday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) puts Memphis (4-5, 2-4 AAC) back at .500 and guarantees Tulsa (3-6, 1-4) will have a losing season. A win also would be a nice touch after honoring Glenn Rogers Sr., Memphis’ first Black player, at halftime.
A loss, of course, means Memphis’ bowl game dreams are one loss away from dying. However, Memphis is 6-0 on Thursday night games and Tulsa has lost five of its last six games.
Here’s this week’s scouting report and score prediction.
Meet Tulsa’s defense
Tulsa is 13th nationally in passing defense but third-worst nationally against the run. That’s bad news for Memphis’ strength of passing the ball but good news for the Tigers’ struggling run game.
Tulsa has allowed only one team – SMU – to throw for over 260 yards in a game and has held teams to just 55.2% passing. Part of that comes from the Golden Hurricane’s 3-3-5 scheme with five defensive backs, and quarterback Seth Henigan admitted it threw him off last season.
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Henigan’s more prepared for it now. It’s also been 19 games since someone at Memphis reached 100 yards in a game so is this the game that changes?
Beware Keylon Stokes
Senior Keylon Stokes had his second-lowest receiving total of the season last week – 40 yards – and he’s still the nation’s third-leading receiver with 964 yards. The 5-foot-10 Stokes is Tulsa’s all-time leader with 3,514 career receiving yards and has six 100-yard games this season
Memphis might be ranked 119th nationally against the pass but it’s given up just four 100-yard receiving performances this season. The secondary has typically made the opposing team’s No. 1 target struggle a bit and the Tigers could get a boost if cornerback Greg Rubin returns after being out last week.
However, Stokes isn’t the only threat to watch. Fellow senior JuanCarlos Santana has 610 receiving yards and five touchdowns so stopping Stokes isn’t the only test for the defense.
Sack opportunities
Tulsa is giving up 4.33 sacks per game, third-worst in the country. Memphis has only 13 sacks this season – 114th nationally – so this is a chance to get pressure against a team that’s not sure who’ll start at quarterback
Freshman Braylon Braxton made his first start in Tulsa’s loss to Tulane last week. Davis Brin, Tulsa’s No. 1 quarterback, was out with a possible shoulder injury and his status Thursday will be a game-time decision.
Braxton threw for 146 yards and ran for 32 yards against Tulsa. Whoever starts, the Tigers have to make life difficult by attacking a shaky Tulsa offensive line.
Seeing red
Another example of Tulsa being a night-and-day team? Tulsa leads the AAC in red-zone offense but is second-worst in red-zone defense.
The second part might help Memphis since the Tigers were 4-for-7 inside the red zone last week against Central Florida. If Memphis moves the ball against a tight Tulsa secondary, it must finish drives with points against a team that’s 115th nationally in scoring defense.
Cancel Tulsa Turnover Party
Tulsa has only 11 takeaways this season yet the Golden Hurricane has at least one in every game. In fact, Tulsa has a 12-game streak with at least one takeaway.
At this point, it’s obvious the Tigers have been too turnover prone in this losing streak. They’re a minus-7 in turnover margin the last four games. Tulsa might not force many takeaways but Memphis can’t be sloppy with the ball.
On that note, it’d also help if Memphis forces multiple takeaways. Davion Ross’ interception against UCF was the Tigers’ first takeaway in three games.
Score prediction
Memphis 31, Tulsa 24: Memphis is sputtering but Tulsa is too and it hasn’t finished games well. If Davis Brin is healthy, this game will be close but it should be anyway because Tulsa will slow down the Tigers’ passing game. But Memphis finally ends the losing streak because short weeks hurt the visiting team and the Tigers’ offense will do just enough to get its first win since Oct. 1.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis football vs. Tulsa scouting report, score prediction
