Menendez scandal creates huge political dilemmas for Democrats

The sensational federal indictment against New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is a big political problem for Senate Democrats already facing a tough fight to protect their majority.

Senators returning to Washington on Tuesday will be confronted with questions about whether Menendez should resign. Two in their fold, Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio), already have said he should step down.

Republicans are likely to seek to tie Democrats to Menendez, who faces charges that he and his wife took bribes from businesspeople in his state connected to the government of Egypt. Prosecutors have released photos of cash, gold bars and a Mercedes-Benz that they allege were a part of the plot.

It all muddies the arguments that Democrats want to make tying Republicans to former President Trump, who is facing his own litany of federal and state charges.

“If I were advising the Senate leadership, I’d say cut bait. You’ve got to make a statement. You got all the allegations against Republicans and Trump, and if you try to bail out one of your own, then you look as bad as they do,” said Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist and former adviser to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“From what I saw in the newspaper, it looks like there are serious allegations. It looks like it’s a huge problem,” he added.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) also has to worry about the concrete problem of suddenly having to worry about protecting Menendez’s seat in New Jersey, which ordinarily would be a slam-dunk win for Democrats.

Menendez, who stepped down as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee on Friday in accordance with Democratic rules, declared at a press conference Monday that he’s going to fight the charges all the way to trial and has no intention of resigning his seat.

“Not only will I be exonerated, I will still be New Jersey’s senior senator,” he declared, predicting a triumph in court.

Strategists in both parties predict a trial won’t be resolved by next year’s election, which means Menendez could be on the ballot as the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey in 2024.

Politicians in the state, however, are trying to get some distance.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and several Democratic members of the state’s congressional delegation, including Reps. Josh Gottheimer, Andy Kim and Mikie Sherrill, have called on him to resign.

Kim on Saturday said he would challenge Menendez in next year’s Democratic primary, but strategists say Menendez will have a good chance of winning unless state party leaders rally behind one challenger to make it a two-person race.

Strategists say Menendez would be very tough to beat in a three- or four-person primary.

Republicans acknowledge they have a weak bench in New Jersey, and there’s no Republican candidate with high name ID who would be an obvious challenger, after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) said over the weekend he has “no interest” in running for Senate.

Instead, Republican strategists say a wealthy self-funder from outside politics would likely emerge as the strongest GOP challenger to Menendez.

Mendham Borough mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, a Trump-allied Republican, announced last week before news of the indictment that she would run for the GOP Senate nomination.

Jim McLaughlin, a Republican strategist and pollster who lives in New Jersey, said Republicans “could” win Menendez’s seat but acknowledged “it’s hard, because it’s a Republican running in New Jersey.”

He pointed out, however, that former New Jersey Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) came within a few points of beating Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial race despite being “totally outmanned and underfunded.”

“Now you throw this corruption on top of this,” he said. “This could be really interesting.”

McLaughlin said the details in the indictment are so damning that “it hurts” Democrats nationally, as Republicans now have a chance to tie the corruption alleged against Menendez to allegations that Hunter Biden peddled influence with President Biden.

Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, wasted little time in seizing on Menendez’s legal problems.

“Senate Democrats should all resign based on Sen. Bob Menendez! They all knew what was going on, and the way he lived!” Trump posted on his Truth Social media platform.

Senate Democratic strategists say they’re confident they will keep the seat.

“Democrats have won every New Jersey Senate race since 1978, and 2024 will be no different,” a national Democratic Senate campaign aide said.

Democrats have won every New Jersey Senate race since 1978 and every presidential race in the state since 1992.

Senate Republicans as of now don’t plan to pour millions of dollars into a New Jersey race when they have better pickup targets in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, vulnerable Democrats will have to play defense when asked about money they’ve taken from political accounts linked to Menendez.

For example, Montanans for Tester, Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) campaign, has accepted $30,000 from Menendez, while Manchin for West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) campaign, has accepted $27,500 from the senior senator from New Jersey, according to federal campaign finance records.

Kaine for Virginia, Sen. Tim Kaine’s (D-Va.) account, has accepted $25,000 from Menendez. Bob Casey for Senate Inc. and Bob Casey for Pennsylvania Committee, accounts linked to Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), accepted $20,000 and $6,500, respectively, in Menendez money.

The campaigns of those four Democratic incumbents did not respond to inquiries from The Hill about whether they would refund the money or give it to charity.

Vulnerable Democrats could also be put on the spot if Republicans bring a resolution to expel Menendez to the floor.

Such a resolution would need a two-thirds majority to pass, and Republicans would likely encounter procedural obstacles to bringing it to the floor, which means that endangered Democratic senators may dodge having to vote up or down on Menendez’s future.

Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said Menendez “poses different problems for different Democrats.”

“The person in a very awkward situation is [New Jersey Democratic Sen.] Cory Booker. He hasn’t said anything yet. He’s probably working on a statement; he can’t say nothing,” Baker said. “It’s got to be a very carefully crafted statement that doesn’t appear to be throwing Menendez under the bus while acknowledging he has problems.

Baker said vulnerable Democrats who have taken money from Menendez should “give it back.”

“It would be a prudent thing for them to do,” he said.

Fetterman, who called on Menendez to resign Sunday, says he will return the $5,000 donation he accepted from his colleague.

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