Merced, Fresno among fastest growing counties in California even as state shrinks

Tim Sheehan
·5 min read

California lost more than 113,000 residents between 2021 and 2022, according to new estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. But counties in the central San Joaquin Valley defied that trend, with figures showing population gains over the one-year period.

Merced and Madera counties led the way among Valley counties, each ranking in the top 10 for percentage increases in population. Merced County had a gain of almost 5,600 people – an increase of 2.0%, second highest out of California’s 58 counties. In neighboring Madera County, an increase of more than 1,300 residents amounted to a gain of 0.8%, ninth among the state’s counties.

All of the Valley’s counties were among the 19 that had percentage gains in population in California, compared to 39 that either no growth or population declines:

  • Merced County: The population increased from an estimated 284,458 residents on July 1, 2021, to 290,014 on July 1, 2022 – a gain of 5,556 people or 2.0%, ranking second in the state behind only Yolo County near Sacramento. The numeric gain ranked fourth out of 58 counties.

  • Madera County: The population increased from 158,910 in July 2021 to 160,256 in July 2022 – a gain of 1,346 people or 0.8%, ninth in the state. The numeric gain was the 11th highest in the state.

  • Fresno County: The population increased from 1,012,992 in July 2021 to 1,015,190 in July 2022 – a gain of 2,198 people or 0.2%, tied for 16th in the state. The numeric gain was 10th out of 58 counties.

  • Kings County: The population increased from 152,679 in July 2021 to 152,981 in July 2022 – a gain of 302 people or 0.2%, tied for 16th in the state. The numeric gain was 19th out of 58 counties.

  • Tulare County: The population increased from 476,946 in July 2021 to 477,544 in July 2022 – a gain of 598 people or 0.1%, 19th in the state. The numeric gain was 17th out of 58 counties.

Other significant gainers were Santa Cruz and Santa Barbara counties, each with increases of 1.5%; San Benito County at 1.4%; Yuba County at 1.3%; Placer County at 1.2%, and San Luis Obispo County at 1.0%.

Some of California’s most populous counties also experienced some of the most significant population declines. Los Angeles County’s net population drop of more than 90,700 was the largest in the state, followed by more than 15,600 in Santa Clara County, more than 14,800 in Alameda County, and almost 9,900 in San Mateo County.

Sacramento County saw its population decline by almost 4,000 residents, a drop of 0.2%, while Stanislaus County fell by 1,576 people for a decline of 0.3%.

The Census Bureau figures include various factors that affect net population growth or declines, including births and deaths and migration into or out of a county or from the state.

Statewide between July 2021 and July 2022, births outnumbered deaths by more than 106,000. California also saw net international migration of almost 126,000 people from outside of the United States.

But those gains were outpaced by an outflow of more than 343,000 people to other states.

Among Valley counties, the components of change between mid-2021 and mid-2022 were:

  • Fresno County: 14,075 births, 8,921 deaths, for a net natural increase of 5,154 people; international migration added 1,633 people, while 4,285 migrated out of the county to other locations in the U.S., for a net migration loss of 2,652 people.

  • Kings County: 2,226 births, 1,183 deaths, for a net natural increase of 1,043 people; international migration added 106 residents, while 674 migrated out of the county to other U.S. locations, for a net migration loss of 674 people.

  • Madera County: 2,084 births, 1,393 deaths, for a net natural increase of 691 people; international migration provided a loss of 22 residents, while 727 people moved into the county from other U.S. locations, for a net migration gain of 705 people.

  • Merced County: 3,853 births, 2,236 deaths, for a net natural increase of 1,617 people; international migration added 344 people, and 3,476 people moved into the county from other U.S. locations, for a net migration gain of 3,820 people.

  • Tulare County: 6,796 births, 4,083 deaths, for a net natural increase of 2,713 people; international migration added 231 people, while 2,258 migrated out of the county to other U.S. locations, for a new migration loss of 2,027 people.

Nationwide, a slight majority of all counties saw net population increases in the 2021-2022 period. All 10 of the top fastest-growing counties were in the South or West.

Of the nation’s 3,144 counties, 78% experienced net increases in international migration, while 60% had positive net domestic migration.

But in almost three-quarters of U.S. counties, deaths outnumbered births, creating a net natural decrease. “The incidence of natural decrease remains historically high,” the Census Bureau reported. “Natural decrease counties are found nationwide but are especially prevalent in some states including Maine, West Virginia and Florida.

In California, 21 of the state’s 58 counties saw net natural decreases with deaths outnumbering births — but none in the central or southern San Joaquin Valley.

The state’s population as of July 1, 2022 stood at 39,029,342 residents, maintaining California’s place as the most populous state in the country. But Since July 2020, the state has seen a net overall population decrease of more than half a million people, or about 1.3%.