Metrics backing up Martin Perez's incredible year

Chris Crawford dives into Martin Perez's incredible start to the season and determines that the metrics do back up his eye-popping numbers.

Video Transcript

CHRIS CRAWFORD: There were some impressive pitching performances in the month of May, but there may not have been anyone better in the month so far than, you guessed it, Martin Perez. OK, you probably didn't guess it, unless you looked up the stats, but Perez was beyond tremendous over his five starts with the Rangers, finishing with a minuscule 0.76 ERA over 35 and 1/3 third innings with a WHIP just below 1. That leaves the 31-year-old with a 1.60 ERA overall and has him leading all of baseball in that category.

You're assuredly asking how much of this is good luck and how much of this is sustainable, and it's more than a fair question to ask for a pitcher that has not had an ERA below 4.3 since 2013. Keeping in mind these are not predictive stats, the metrics suggest that he's mostly earned these numbers. Perez is in the 90th percentile in the big expected stats, including ERA, weighted on base percentage, and slugging. The question marks come from this being a pitcher that has a below average fastball in velocity and spin, doesn't get hitters to swing it pitches outside of the zone, and doesn't really miss bats. Kudos to Perez and anyone who has Perez on their fantasy roster for his outstanding numbers, but it's very hard to imagine that he'll be anything more than a streamer by the time the year ends. Prove us wrong, Martin.