Mexico has a presidential election in 2024, too. What that means for US, Arizona

Every 12 years, Mexico and the U.S. hold presidential elections in the same year.

2024 is one of those years.

That's because Mexico elects a new president every six years, and the U.S. has a presidential election every four years. In Mexico, the president is limited to one six-year term. In the U.S., the president cannot serve more than two four-year terms.

The two presidential elections will take place five months apart. Mexicans will go to the polls on Sunday, June 2, and the U.S. holds its presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

The two elections may be the most important ever in terms of impacting both sides of the border.

"Arguably, no simultaneous presidential elections have ever been as important for the bilateral relationship as those transpiring in 2024," said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research organization.

The winners of the two elections will shape the course of bilateral relations from next year until nearly the end of the decade, Berg said.

What's more, Mexicans and Mexican-American voters living in the U.S. could play a significant role in deciding the outcome of both elections, especially if the elections are tight.

In Mexico, the 2024 election will likely be historic. The two frontrunners are women. The winner likely will become Mexico's first female president.

People with Mexican citizenship living abroad are eligible to participate in the Mexican presidential election. That means many Mexican Americans with dual citizenship living in the U.S., including naturalized U.S. citizens and U.S.-born citizens, will be able to cast ballots in both the U.S. and Mexico presidential elections, said Jorge Mendoza Yescas, the consul general of Mexico in Phoenix.

The process for Mexican citizens living abroad, including in the U.S., to vote in Mexico's presidential election will be easier than in the past, Mendoza Yescas said.

So far, 70,000 voter registration cards have been issued to residents in Arizona, Mendoza Yescas said.

Arizona has one of the largest Mexican and Mexican American populations of any state in the U.S., so interest in the Mexican elections will be high.

There are more than 38.7 million people in the U.S. who were either born in Mexico or are of Mexican descent, according to the Migration Policy Institute. Of those, nearly 2.1 million live in Arizona, which has the third largest Mexican diaspora population of any U.S. state behind California and Texas.

There are 10.6 million people born in Mexico living in the U.S., according to the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Of those, about 502,000 live in Arizona.

Arizona ranks fourth in terms of states with the most Mexican immigrants, behind California, Texas and Illinois, according to the Migration Policy Institute. The Phoenix area ranks sixth, according to the institute.

When is the registration deadline for Mexico's presidential election?

Mexican citizens abroad have until Feb. 20 to apply for a voter registration card, which they will need to apply for a ballot. Mexican citizens can go to any consulate to apply. The Mexican consulate in Phoenix is located at 320 E. McDowell Road.

What documents do Mexican citizens abroad need to register to vote?

Mexican citizens abroad need three documents to apply for a voter registration card:

• Proof of Mexican citizenship, such as a birth certificate or passport.

• Photo ID, such as a consular ID card or ID issued by a local authority.

• Proof of address in the U.S., such as an electric bill.

How do Mexican citizens abroad vote?

Mexico's autonomous National Electoral Institute is in charge of the presidential election. Mexican citizens abroad with voter registration cards can vote one of three ways: by certified mail, online or in person on June 2 at one of 10 Mexican consulates in the U.S., including the one in Phoenix. The option to vote online or in person at consulates in the U.S. is new this election cycle, Mendoza Yescas said. More information about voting by certified mail or online is available at https://www.votoextranjero.mx/web/vmre.

U.S., Mexico presidential campaign rhetoric spilling over border

Rhetoric from the U.S. and Mexico presidential campaigns is already spilling across the border from sides on issues such as trade, border security, illegal immigration, and drug trafficking and the cartels. Some leading Republican presidential candidates have called for using the U.S. military to battle the cartels.

As the elections get closer, expect even more heated campaign rhetoric, Berg said.

Via email, Berg answered several other questions about Mexico's presidential election. His answers have been edited for length and clarity.

Why should Americans pay attention to Mexico's presidential election?

Mexico recently became the Number 1 U.S. trade partner again. It is a key country for the strategic relocation of supply chains known as "nearshoring" and "friendshoring." And, of course, it has become a top source of both migrants arriving at the U.S. southern border, as well as drugs flowing over the border, most notably, the potent opioid fentanyl. Many of these issues have vexed the bilateral relationship in the last few years, meaning the winners of the 2024 elections will be key players in resolving many of these issues. The dynamic that emerges between the two elected leaders of Mexico and the U.S. will shape the course of bilateral relations from next year until nearly the end of the decade.

A dangerous journey: In southern Mexico, the cost for migrants to reach the US is increasingly death

How will Mexico's presidential election impact the U.S. election — and vice versa?

How we talk about one another matters. Building a domestic constituency for working with the other side is important. Under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico has pursued a strategy of "strategic autonomy" from the U.S., although it has been tempered by reality. López Obrador's pursuit of this strategy has included a lot of skepticism of the U.S. and a healthy dose of anti-American rhetoric. Likewise, on the other side of the border, Mexico has played an outsize role in the Republican primary thus far. Candidates have highlighted Mexico's role in migration and the synthesis of (drug) precursors and trafficking of the deadly opioid fentanyl, which López Obrador denies. Each candidate has sought to position themselves as tough on Mexico. There is the potential for an escalatory spiral in a simultaneous election scenario, given that anti-American rhetoric plays well in Mexico and vice-versa in the U.S.

Who are the leading candidates running for president in Mexico?

Claudia Sheinbaum is the former mayor of Mexico City and the preferred candidate of López Obrador to carry the Morena Party's banner forward. She has the president's full blessing and is leading polls by a healthy margin. Xóchitl Gálvez, a little-known senator whose inspiring, up-from-the-bootstraps story led to her meteoric rise, represents a coalition of opposition parties that banded together to confront López Obrador's political machine. The problem for Gálvez, though, is that despite her political capabilities, the parties she represents are establishment parties, viewed unfavorably by wide swaths of the Mexican population. For these reasons, she finds herself trailing Sheinbaum in the polls. Sheinbaum also has benefited from having her political mentor in the position of president, capable of wielding the power of the state in her favor.

What are the leading candidates in Mexico saying about top concerns in U.S. border states like migration, drug smuggling and trade?

Both Sheinbaum and Gálvez are likely to have a friendlier stance toward the U.S. on a range of issues — migration, drugs, and trade among them. While Gálvez would be more pro-U.S., Sheinbaum would also likely tone down the anti-U.S. rhetoric and seek accommodation with the U.S. on issues like drug trafficking and the alignment of policies aimed at catalyzing further trade and investment, as well as attracting nearshoring. Both politicians have fewer populist impulses and come from a more technocratic background, which means that 2024 will likely witness a healthy shift in the approach to policymaking in Mexico City, irrespective of which candidate emerges victorious.

Reach the reporter at daniel.gonzalez@arizonarepublic.com.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Mexico has a presidential election in 2024. What that means for US