Mexico's Ebrard pursues presidential prize as unifier in polarized times

By Dave Graham

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Urbane, socially progressive and eager to put Mexico on the world stage, Marcelo Ebrard presents a sharp contrast to the popular, sharp-tongued defender of the country's impoverished hinterlands he hopes to succeed as president.

Having followed once in the footsteps of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as mayor of Mexico City, Ebrard is banking he can do it again in the race to be the ruling National Regeneration Movement's (MORENA) 2024 presidential candidate.

This month, the 63-year-old Ebrard stood down as foreign minister to seek the MORENA nomination, unleashing a contest that could strain the leftist party's unity.

His more business-oriented and moderate instincts stand apart from Lopez Obrador's outspoken rhetoric, but also raise doubts about whether he can get enough support from a party whose base identifies strongly with the president, analysts say.

Reuters spoke to over two dozen officials, politicians, diplomats, executives and aides to Ebrard to assess his chances of clinching the MORENA ticket for the June 2024 election.

A winner is expected on Sept. 6 after national polling.

Luis Huacuja, a political consultant and professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said Ebrard's experience and record appeared to make him an "ideal" contender.

But that did not mean party loyalists would, when polled, see the more centrist Ebrard as most suited to upholding Lopez Obrador's legacy, he argued.

"He could go down well in some quarters, and badly in others," Huacuja said.

Ebrard has won some early battles, persuading the president that contenders for the nomination should leave office, and that polls to pick the winner be open to the public.

He told Reuters "hard" left critics had long painted him as moderate, but said they had not governed - and that it was he who delivered results for the capital as mayor from 2006-2012.

Private investment flourished during his administration, Ebrard said, pointing to how the left's appeal in Mexico City extended from poorer households to the middle class, helping his successor secure a landslide victory.

That support was crucial to control Congress, he argued.

"You need a coalition with the middle class either way," said Ebrard, who has been a key troubleshooter for Lopez Obrador, helping contain threats from former U.S. president Donald Trump over immigration, trade and security.

SPLITS?

While Lopez Obrador has slammed critics, clashed with business and questioned checks on presidential power, Ebrard, supporters say, is a unifier who will lift growth and reassure investors.

"(Ebrard) is committed to the division of powers and strengthening institutions," said MORENA senator Rafael Espino.

If nominated, Ebrard is likely to become president, polling shows. MORENA is hot favorite to win, propelled by Lopez Obrador's approval ratings of around 60%. Mexican law bars presidents from re-election.

Polling shows Ebrard in a tight race with ex-Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, who has followed Lopez Obrador lock-step on policy. Many polls indicate Ebrard is better-known, but Sheinbaum more popular among MORENA's base. A survey published May 26 by newspaper Reforma gave Sheinbaum a slight edge.

Both contenders promise to defend Lopez Obrador's vision.

Aides to the president have told Reuters they believe he would most like Sheinbaum to succeed him. Lopez Obrador denies this, and says voters must decide.

Some officials close to Lopez Obrador privately back Ebrard.

"We need to unite the country," said one.

Ebrard is careful not to criticize the president. But he has staked out his own turf.

On June 11, MORENA's leadership agreed guidelines for the nomination contest stating contenders should avoid talking to media deemed conservative or hostile to the administration.

The next morning Ebrard gave an interview to journalist Ciro Gomez Leyva - a regular target of Lopez Obrador's broadsides - and declared himself open to all media, drawing fire from some MORENA supporters.

Ebrard dismisses such criticism, and says his legalization of same-sex marriage and abortion when Mexico City mayor was more radical than anything his detractors can lay claim to.

His independent streak has fed speculation he could break with MORENA if he feels the contest is unfair. Ebrard denies this, but has repeatedly called for a level playing field.

CONTINUITY

Vowing to prioritize security, healthcare, education and growth, Ebrard underlines the economic opportunity presented by so-called nearshoring - increased investment spurred by Washington's trade tensions with China.

In February, when Lopez Obrador threatened to deny billionaire Elon Musk's Tesla permission to build a plant in northern Mexico over water supply, Ebrard stepped in to ensure the deal prospered, three officials said.

Lopez Obrador has given MORENA's contenders room to maneuver by calling the succession "continuity with change". But some Ebrard supporters hint he may be too independent of MORENA.

"Sheinbaum agrees with Lopez Obrador's political project," said one senior executive backing Ebrard. "Ebrard would be a different project."

A native of Mexico's poorer south, the folksy Lopez Obrador frames his presidency as the victory of a downtrodden majority over a corrupt, 'conservative' minority.

The president, who has described sectors of the middle class as classist and racist, forged his electoral success on years of campaigning in forgotten rural areas, rewarding support with higher welfare spending and major public works.

The tall, bespectacled Ebrard, a veteran Mexico City political operator, is less at home in remote villages. He has instead targeted younger, metropolitan Mexicans, making light of himself in TikTok videos peppered with pop cultural nods.

Lopez Obrador wants MORENA to win a two-thirds congressional majority in 2024 to reshape the judiciary, which has resisted his efforts to strengthen state control over the economy.

Ebrard is best placed to win that super-majority, argued MORENA senator Martha Lucia Micher.

"If we don't get two-thirds," she said, "everything we want to do will suffer."

(Reporting by Dave Graham)