Miami Dolphins linked to two pass rushers with modest sack numbers. What history tells us

For the Dolphins and other teams looking to add edge rushers, here’s the sobering reality:

There’s no sure-fire star among the pass rushers in this NFL draft class, and arguably two of the top five defensive end/outside linebacker prospects combined for two — 2! — sacks all of last season.

Michigan’s Kwity Paye — linked to Miami at 18 in some mock drafts — produced only 11.5 sacks in his 28-game career (two in four games last season). Penn State’s Jayson Oweh — mocked to Miami at 18 in a recent Pro Football Focus mock draft but likely to go later than that — produced no sacks in seven games last season and just seven in 20 career games (five in 2019).

Draft evaluators aren’t concerned. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah predict Paye will be a much better NFL pass rusher than college pass rusher, in part for reasons about Michigan’s defensive scheme that Jeremiah explained here.

They also say Oweh’s no-sack season was misleading because he’s exceptionally talented and disruptive.

But the disappointing sack numbers for Paye and Oweh got me thinking: How often do first-round college pass rushers with underwhelming sack numbers produce big in the pros?

During the past decade, we found more than a handful of college defensive ends or outside linebackers who never had a seven-sack season in college but nevertheless were drafted in the first round. (Most of the others produced seasons with nine or double figures in sacks.)

The majority of those first-round outliers — the ones with the modest college sack totals — have had very good pro careers.

Chandler Jones had 1.5, 4.0 and 4.5 sacks in three years at Syracuse. He has 97 sacks in a nine-year NFL career, including 17 for Arizona in 2017.

Ezekiel Ansah had 4.5 sacks in his college career, all in his final year at BYU. He has 50.5 sacks in eight years in the NFL.

Leonard Floyd had 6.5, 6.0 and 4.5 sacks in his three years at Georgia. He has 29 sacks in five NFL seasons, including 10.5 last season.

Cam Jordan had 4.0, 6.0 and 5.5 sacks in his last three seasons at Cal. He has 94 sacks in a terrific 10-year career for the Saints.

Cam Hayward had 15.5 sacks in four years at Ohio State, never more than 6.5 in one season. He had 58 in 10 seasons for the Steelers.

It’s too soon to know what K’Lavon Chaisson — who had 2, 1 and 6.5 sacks at LSU — will become for the Jaguars, for whom he had one sack as a rookie.

Same with Seattle’s L.J. Collier, who had 4.5, 4.0 and 6.0 sacks in three years at TCU and had three in 16 starts for the Seahawks last season.

All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt had 4.5 and 7 sacks in his final two seasons at Wisconsin and has 101 in 10 NFL seasons.

Danielle Hunter, a third-round pick in 2015, had 4.5 career sacks in three seasons at LSU but has 54.5 sacks in five seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. (He missed 2020 with an injury.)

And keep in mind that a bunch of first-round pass rushers who had big sack numbers in college in the past decade have been washouts in the pros, including former Dolphin Charles Harris (nine sacks in his final year at Missouri; 6.5 in four years as a pro), Marcus Smith (16 in his final year at Louisville, 6.5 in a five-year NFL career) and Shane Ray (14.5 in last year at Missouri, 14 in a four-year NFL career).

So don’t be alarmed by the low sack numbers for Paye and Oweh, though Oweh is considered more likely to go in the 20s or early 30s than 18.

Penn State said Oweh, 6-foot-5 and 257 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds, the fastest by a defensive end since 2003, when the NFL started tracking draft combine data.

“The intriguing guy, the boom-or-bust guy is Jayson Oweh of Penn State,” Kiper said. “You talk about sacks; he didn’t have one this year. There were some games he was just neutralized completely. So he’s a roll of the dice based on talent.”

And Kiper said of Paye: “Hard worker, will be more of a sack guy in the NFL when he’s turned loose. Has versatility, freakish talent, tremendous test numbers. Plays hard. Once we get him in the NFL, maybe a 10-sack-a-year guy. Some think he’s only a five- to six-sack guy. Could be a double-digit sack guy in the right structure.”

The other top pass rushers in this draft had bigger sack numbers than Paye and Oweh: UM’s Greg Rousseau (15.5 in 2019), UM’s Jaelan Phillips (8.0 in 10 games last season) and Georgia’s Azeez Olajari (9.5 in 10 games last season).

Kiper has Rousseau falling to the second round, attributing that to his mediocre Pro Day numbers, the fact he didn’t play in 2020 and his assertion that Rousseau got several coverage sacks in 2019.

QUICK STUFF

▪ Several evaluators have expressed concerns about Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith’s size (166 pounds), and The33rd Team — former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum’s new think tank — noted that Smith at 166 pounds would be the second-lightest wide receiver to play a snap in the NFL since 2000. The one lighter: JJ Nelson (2015) at 156 pounds. Baltimore’s Marquise Brown played at a listed 166 in 2019.

▪ Kiper said Smith and Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle are similar talents, but said one difference from a usage standpoint is Smith played 50 percent in the slot, about 50 percent on the boundary while Waddle played mostly in the slot.

He said Waddle is the better returner.

“Both are great; both are remarkable talents and remarkable workers,” Kiper said. “I love them both. One of those two could drop a little bit. It’s possible at 12, you could see one of those two. It wouldn’t shock me if Waddle went before Smith. They’re two of the five best players in this draft.”

▪ Of all the impressive stats about UF tight end Kyle Pitts, this one impresses me most: Last season, 91 percent of his receptions went for touchdowns or first downs.

Kiper said he’s the best tight end prospect in NFL Draft history and would be the top receiver prospect in this draft if judged as a receiver.

Here’s my Thursday Dolphins piece exploring the draft’s centers and what we’re hearing.

Here’s my Thursday Miami Hurricanes 6-pack.