Miami Hurricanes football prediction: 3 reasons to worry, 3 reasons to hope in 2022

CORAL GABLES — After nearly two decades of mediocrity and underwhelming football, the University of Miami finally had enough.

Most would ask, 'What took so long?'

More than half of the 2022 roster was not born the last time Miami won a national championship. And it's been almost as long since this program was relevant on the national scene, with the exception being the first three months of the 2017 season.

But finally, the university has decided it's time to pump some resources into this beleaguered program.

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The makeover started with hiring coach Mario Cristobal and athletic director Dan Radakovich. It continued with Cristobal allowed to bring in a star-studded staff.

"I think it's clear how much I love Miami, live and die for it," said Cristobal, a native who won two national championships as an offensive lineman at Miami.

"And there are people in this building who feel the exact same way. Because of what we want to accomplish and we are currently at, there's a lot to do, so there's really no time to stop."

That to-do list was long when Cristobal arrived. Already making his mark in the area that is his specialty, recruiting, Cristobal will start this week attempting to change the direction on the field.

But this will not turn around overnight. Miami has not lived up to its brand since the early 2000s with one disappointing season after another.

Now there is momentum that appears a little different from the past, a reason for some optimism. It's up to Cristobal to turn that into success.

Miami has won more than eight games four times in the last 16 years and double-digits once in 2017 when it followed 10 straight wins with three losses by 50 points combined.

Most have Miami's win total set at 8.5. Even finishing under at eight wins would be a successful debut season for Cristobal. How can he get there? We take a look.

Reasons for UM football optimism

1. Tyler Van Dyke: D'Eriq King's injury in the third game last season fast tracked Van Dyke's career at Miami. The quarterback looked comfortable from the start and now is in the national conversation when it comes to Heisman Trophy longshots and the NFL Draft.

Van Dyke has the tangibles, size (6-foot-4, 224 pounds), arm strength and decent mobility. He took over in the fourth game of 2021 and was the ACC Rookie of the Year, completing 62.3 percent of his passes (202 of 324) for 2,931 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

He ended the season with six straight games of at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes. Miami was 6-3 in Van Dyke's starts.

"Last year it was kind of thrown at me the fourth game of the season," Van Dyke said. "I didn't have that whole summer and fall camp to be that leader for the team. It's a lot different this year having that. A lot of guys are looking up to me."

Now, Van Dyke will operate in a more balanced, physical system under new coordinator Josh Gattis. One of those flashy Cristobal hires, Gattis joins the Hurricanes after three years running Jim Harbaugh's offense at Michigan.

"He is bringing a lot of things that we never had last year," Van Dyke said about Gattis. "He likes to utilize the talent we have, the running backs and the tight ends to the best ability. I’m really excited for that and can’t wait for it."

2. Favorable schedule: The ACC should be stronger this season, but the top three teams may reside in the Atlantic Division, depending on the status of Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman.

Miami should be favored in all but one game (at Clemson) within the conference and it has three non-conference games it is expected to win, the lone exception being Week 3 at Texas A&M.

The Hurricanes have two tune-ups before Cristobal's first real test in College Station against the No. 6 Aggies: home games against FCS Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss.

After A&M, they host Middle Tennessee, which means a likely 3-1 start before starting ACC play.

The next eight games will write the script for Cristobal's first season. This could go many ways but the dream scenario for starved UM fans is 7-1. That, though, may be asking a lot.

Duke and Georgia Tech, probably the two worst teams in the league, are must wins. How Miami fares against North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, FSU and Pitt will determine the season. Helping is UNC, FSU and Pitt are home games.

A major step forward would be winning four of those games, finishing 6-2 in the conference and doing something UM has done once during its 18 seasons in the ACC - play in the conference title game.

Even going 5-3 in the ACC (eight wins overall) and playing in a bowl with a chance to win nine would be a nice start for Cristobal.

3. Cristobal has assembled a strong staff: When Miami decided to go all-in on Cristobal, that meant more resources for the former Oregon coach to build his staff.

Cristobal made his biggest splash with his coordinators. Gattis turned around Michigan's offense a year ago, increasing the scoring by more than 11 points per game to 39.8 and the total yards by more than 61 per game to 443.1

Gattis was name winner of Broyles Award that goes to the best assistant coach in college football.

It's much the same on defense with two established, respected former head coaches.

Kevin Steele, the coordinator, has worked for Bobby Bowden, Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney. He has been the coordinator at Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Auburn and has been a Broyles Award semifinalist and finalist.

Charlie Strong's resume is as long as Steele's but with more head coaching experience. Strong, listed as the co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach, has coached every position on defense except the secondary. He was the DC at Florida for five years.

Cristobal also surrounded himself with loyal soldiers, like QB coach Frank Ponce, OL coach Alex Mirabal and DL coach Joe Salave’a, who have worked for him in the past. RB coach Kevin Smith worked for Lane Kiffin at FAU and Ole Miss and DB coach Jahmile Addae won a national championship with Georgia last season .

Reasons for Miami Hurricanes pessimism

1. It's still Miami: Hard to believe that at one time this was a brand that struck fear in opponents' hearts. Now ... it's a program that has had one double-digit winning season in nearly two decades, is going on year 19 in the ACC without sniffing a league title (and we are talking ACC, not SEC or Big Ten) and scares no one. Heck, it's a program that lost its last game against FIU (FIU!!!)

We've heard this optimism before and Miami has done nothing but break hearts. That swag Miami boasts has not been seen since it terrorized the Big East. We're going back to the days of Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow, Jonathan Vilma, Vince Wilfork .

Miami had six players selected in the first round of the NFL draft in 2004, the same amount it's had in the last 14 years combined.

And while the schedule is forgiving, it does include two teams in the top six of the preseason polls - Texas A&M and Clemson - and both on the road. Miami, though, should be favored in the other 10 games. But does it matter?

Miami has lost nine times as the favorite in the last three years.

2. Lack of elite playmakers at wide receiver: The Hurricanes have lots of bodies but no one who has stood out at the position.

Charleston Rambo and Mike Harley, who combined for 1,715 yards and 12 TDs a year ago, are gone. What's left is untapped potential.

Miami needs someone to emerge to form the kind of bond with Van Dyke that Rambo had a year ago and become a playmaker. Key'Shawn Smith, the team's leading returning receiver with 33 catches for 405 yards, Xavier Restrepo and Clemson transfer Frank Ladson will lead a relatively young group.

Restrepo and Smith, along with Brashard Smith, Romello Brinson and Jacolby George were part of an inconsistent receiving room last season that become known as much for dropping key passes as making game-breaking plays.

Van Dyke is a special quarterback. But he will need some help from his receivers.

3. Tackling: Miami became the poster child for missed tackles a year ago, the miscues being highlighted on blooper reels.

Miami had the worst tackling grade in the country after three games, according to Pro Football Focus, and missed an astounding 30 tackles against Michigan State. Although it improved (it could not have been much worse) it continued to be an issue.

Cristobal admitted tackling was the number one issue on defense a year ago and his staff has focused on that area since they arrived.

"It's never where you want it because you don't want to miss one," Steele said. "The big thing about tackling is in this day and age with the space game as it is, getting the ball in space, the first thing you got to do is minimize the one-on-one tackles.

"When you watch missed tackles in a season, the percentage of those missed tackles is one guy. It's a one-on-one tackle."

So how are they attempting to fix it? "Through structure, teaching pursuit angles, effort. It's hard to miss tackles when you have three people on the tackle, four people on the tackle. It's very easy to miss tackles when you've got one guy.

"We improved that a lot in the spring."

Tom D'Angelo is a journalist at the Palm Beach Post. You can reach him at tdangelo@pbpost.com. 

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Miami Hurricanes base 2022 hopes on Mario Cristobal, Tyler Van Dyke