The Michaels Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Significantly Overvalued
- By GF Value
The stock of The Michaels (NAS:MIK, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $21.93 per share and the market cap of $3.1 billion, The Michaels stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for The Michaels is shown in the chart below.
Because The Michaels is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 7.1% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 0.01% annually over the next three to five years.
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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. The Michaels has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.28, which is worse than 68% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of The Michaels at 3 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of The Michaels is poor. This is the debt and cash of The Michaels over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. The Michaels has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $5.3 billion and earnings of $1.98 a share. Its operating margin of 10.67% better than 84% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. Overall, GuruFocus ranks The Michaels's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of The Michaels over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of The Michaels is 7.1%, which ranks better than 71% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, The Michaels's return on invested capital is 16.85, and its cost of capital is 10.91. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of The Michaels is shown below:
In closing, the stock of The Michaels (NAS:MIK, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. To learn more about The Michaels stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
