In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Whitmer's lead over GOP's Dixon shrinks as economic outlook worsens: Poll

LANSING – A new Free Press poll shows significant tightening in the Nov. 8 races for Michigan governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's lead over Republican challenger Tudor Dixon is 11 percentage points, down from 16 points in September, according to the poll from EPIC-MRA of Lansing, conducted for the Free Press and its statewide media partners.

Attorney General Dana Nessel, another Democratic incumbent, has seen her lead over GOP challenger Matt DePerno shrink to four points, down from nine points in September, the poll found.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the third Democratic incumbent seeking reelection to statewide office, leads Republican challenger Kristina Karamo by 10 points, according to the new poll. In September, Benson led Karamo by 14.

The poll found inflation has overtaken abortion as the top issue on voters' minds and views of the Michigan economy have darkened since the last EPIC-MRA survey was taken, just a little over three weeks ago. The mood of the electorate has changed as gas prices again are on the rise, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries have moved to tighten oil supplies, and Michigan homeowners are noticing hikes in their heating bills as colder weather sets in.

Whitmer and Dixon are to met Thursday night in Grand Rapids for their first of two scheduled debates.

The poll of 600 likely voters, conducted Oct. 6-12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Cell phone users made up 70% of the sample in the poll conducted by live interviews.

Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA, said the races were expected to tighten, as they normally do in Michigan, and there could be further tightening if the economic outlook continues to worsen before Election Day.

"The numbers on the bad economy are having an impact," Porn said.

The poll found Whitmer ahead of Dixon, a Norton Shores businesswoman, 49% to 38%, with 4% supporting a third-party candidate and 9% undecided or refusing to say. Whitmer led Dixon 55%-39% in the September poll, which did not include third-party options.

One possible reason for the shift is the emergence of inflation as the No. 1 issue. Of those surveyed, 29% identified controlling inflation as the top election issue, while 17% pointed to addressing abortion laws after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in June that overturned Roe v. Wade. In the September poll, inflation and abortion were tied as the top issue, at 24% each.

Still, the poll shows abortion continues to have a bigger impact on the election than inflation, which many voters see as outside the control of top statewide elected officials. Asked which issue was most affecting their vote in the governor's race, 39% pointed to abortion, compared to 34% who said inflation. That question was not asked in the September survey.

Whitmer's campaign and Democratic groups have spent millions on TV ads hammering Dixon's position on abortion, which favors a ban without exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother. Dixon's campaign has not aired broadcast TV ads, though a group connected to the Republican Governors Association began airing ads on Dixon's behalf Wednesday, attacking Whitmer over roads and other issues.

Michigan's race for governor:How Whitmer, Dixon have managed art of the pivot

The poll found voters' views have changed little since September on questions such as how they feel about Whitmer and President Joe Biden, and their job performances, as well as how they feel about former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Dixon, DePerno and Karamo and was in Warren for an Oct. 1 rally with them.

But voters' views of the Michigan economy have dimmed amid signs the U.S. is in a recession or soon will be. Of those surveyed, 30% gave the state economy a positive rating and 67% gave it a negative one. In September, those numbers were 36%-60%.

Whitmer leads Dixon 55% to 32% among women, while Dixon leads Whitmer 44% to 43% among men, the poll found.

Whitmer leads Dixon 56% to 31% in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties and leads Dixon 45% to 44% in central Michigan, while Dixon leads Whitmer 43% to 36% in northern Michigan, the poll found. One potential concern for Whitmer, Porn said, is the city of Detroit, where the poll found Whitmer leading Dixon 72% to 6%, with 16% undecided. That support appears soft by historical standards for Democrats, he said.

James Blair, chief strategist for the Dixon campaign, said he believes Whitmer's lead is now down to single digits. "We know it. Whitmer knows it," Blair said. "It will keep getting tighter and come down to Election Day."

Maeve Coyle, a spokeswoman for the Whitmer campaign, said the race is competitive and she expects third parties will continue to spend millions backing Dixon because "they know she'll enact an extreme ... agenda," if elected.

Of those surveyed, 41% self-identified as Democrats, 40% as Republicans, and 15% as independents. In September, the survey's partisan split was 43% Democrat, 41% Republican, and 12% independent.

The poll found Nessel leading DePerno, a Kalamazoo attorney who claims without evidence that fraud affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, 43% to 39%. The race is close despite the fact that 76% of those surveyed said they did not recognize DePerno's name. In the September poll, Nessel led DePerno 48% to 39%.

For secretary of state, the poll found Benson is leading Karamo, a former community college instructor from Oakland County who also denies the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, 47% to 37%. Of those surveyed, 71% said they did not recognize Karamo's name. Benson's lead over Karamo in September was 51% to 37%.

All three statewide Democratic candidates, but Benson in particular, have been arguing that democracy itself is at stake on Nov. 8 because candidates such as Karamo, who has leveled baseless claims of election misconduct, want to take control of the state and its election machinery.

The new poll asked respondents whether they think "democracy is at stake" on Nov. 8, given the candidates who are election deniers, the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, and proposed laws that would make it more difficult for people to vote. The response: 64% said yes, 29% said no, and 7% were undecided or refused to say.

Contact Paul Egan: 517-372-8660 or pegan@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @paulegan.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Gretchen Whitmer's lead against Tudor Dixon shrinks in Michigan: Poll