Michigan Democrats have seen big gains. That's no guarantee heading into 2024

A recent headline asserted that Michigan — which only seven years ago had a Republican governor, GOP-controlled Legislature and voted for Donald Trump to become president — is now, as the New Yorker put it, a "Democratic stronghold."

It isn't, though the trend since the 2018 election — the first after Trump's surprise victory two years before — has clearly been on the Democrats' side.

Yes, as Trump took over the Republican Party, more Michigan voters rejected its candidates (including Trump himself in 2020) than embraced them. Yes, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won handily twice and in 2022, thanks to more equitable redistricting plans, the outrage caused by the Supreme Court's overturning Roe vs. Wade, and Trump's hand-picked candidates striking voters as too extreme, Democrats swept the top state offices and took control of both state legislative chambers for the first time in decades.

But that trend isn't guaranteed to continue as Trump and President Joe Biden appear headed to a rematch. Voter apathy, a drop-off in turnout, or even a slight trend in some key regions of the state back toward Republicans could make Michigan hyper-competitive in next year's presidential and state House races.

"I think (President Joe) Biden has a stronger chance to win here than in other (swing) states," said Mark Brewer, a lawyer and former chairman of the state Democratic Party. "But articles like that one lead us down the path toward 2016 and that’s a prescription for Trump winning (again) ... This is going to be a very competitive state. These margins are so close you can't take Michigan for granted."

That isn't hyperbole.

Consider this scenario: Say voters are put off enough by a Biden-Trump rematch — and there is evidence this is the case given the poor favorability ratings either gets in polls — that fewer voters take part in the 2024 election. Instead of the 5.5 million that voted in Michigan in 2020, say it's 4.85 million, which is the average going back to the 2000 election (and more than in every presidential race in the state in that span except 2020 and 2008).

Now, say third party candidates get more votes than in most other years — again, a stronger possibility given voters' feelings about the major party candidates. Say instead of getting 1.5% of the vote, as happened in 2020, they receive 2.5% of the vote. That's more than most years in Michigan but less than half the more than 5% they received in 2016.

Add one more caveat to the way the vote splits on Election Day: In each region of the state, Biden's percentage is 1% less than it was in 2020, and Trump's is 1% more. No big deal, right?

In this scenario, Trump wins Michigan 49%-48%.

Admittedly, there are lots of reasons to reject this scenario. No-reason absentee voting in Michigan argues against turnout falling that low and state voters have shown time and again, despite Biden's poor favorability numbers, they are motivated to show up in greater numbers to vote against Trump and his candidates than vote for him or them. The surprise of Michigan helping to put Trump in the White House in 2016 argues against voters taking for granted that might happen again. The state Republican Party is in disarray, with fights breaking out, low fundraising totals and decidedly deep questions about how effective it can be in turning out any vote.

None of that, however, is written in stone. And there is no question that, if Michigan, for whatever reason, were to reject Biden, he's almost certain to have a bad election nationwide. Already, there are polls showing a virtual tie between the candidates in Michigan, which compares to an 11-percentage-point lead Biden had over Trump at the same point in 2019; last week, the New York Times said they're neck-and-neck nationally as well.

For all Whitmer has done, there is no guarantee she can deliver the state for Biden, since she has done far better in the state than he's likely to. Trump voters, after all, are almost certain to turn out, even if he is in legal peril as Special Counsel Jack Smith pursues charges against him for his role in instigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

"For the Democrats, their biggest problem is going to be complacency," said Jenell Leonard, a Republican consultant and owner of Lansing-based strategic communications firm Marking Resource Group. "Who is excited to vote for Joe Biden? I don't know many who are."

How the state's different regions are changing politically

As part of this analysis, we divvied the state up into a dozen different geographic regions and looked at their voting trends over the last decade — and especially from 2018 forward — in these races: president, governor, U.S House, state Senate and state House.

What it showed is not only Whitmer's relative strength everywhere compared to Biden and other Democrats but also just how much more partisan the state has become. For instance, the three counties that make up metro Detroit (Macomb, Oakland, Wayne) when taken together have become more Democratic-leaning, with that party's candidates having a 23% edge on average since 2018. That's compared to about 20% for the decade as a whole.

The outer metro area, including Livingston, Monroe, St. Clair and Washtenaw counties, has a 7% Democratic-lean since 2018, compared to about 4% for the decade.

Alternatively, the counties in the Thumb have supported Republicans over Democrats by a whopping 37% margin since 2018, compared to 32% for the decade, making it the most staunchly GOP region in the state. In north central Michigan, it's a 35% edge for the GOP (compared to 30% over the decade); in northeastern Michigan it's a 29% edge for the party (compared to 23% over the decade).

Then, there are the areas that have gone against their traditional partisan trends.

Chief among them is west Michigan, where a pronounced Republican lean over the decade of 14% has been just 8% on average since 2018. Northwest and southwest Michigan have both favored GOP candidates, by about 9% on average in recent elections, down from 12% for the decade. The opposite, meanwhile, is true for the counties around Saginaw Bay (a region which includes Genesee County and Flint): A 10% lean toward Democrats over the decade is only 6% in the last three election cycles.

And then there is midstate — a 12-county area encircling Lansing — that is about as much of a tossup as can be: It's favored Republicans by .08% since 2018, compared to a little more than 1% over the decade as a whole.

What Democrats have been able to capitalize on is that their relative growth in support has come in the areas where the population is largest. Metro Detroit makes up more than a third of the vote generally; add in the outer metro region and it's more than 45% of the statewide vote. And with west Michigan — the second largest region of the state with about 13% of the vote — trending blue in recent elections, it's no surprise it's helped the Democrats mightily.

But that trend isn't necessarily destiny.

Take west Michigan, for instance. Whitmer won in the largest county of the region, Kent, where Grand Rapids is located, in 2018 and 2022. Biden won it as well in 2020. And Whitmer's 10-percentage-point win last year and Biden's 6-point win two years before are notable. But Whitmer had a much closer race (5 points) in 2018 and races for U.S. House, state Senate and state House have been far tighter even in many recent elections, if not outright winners for Republicans.

It's not impossible, depending on the candidates, turnout and other factors that west Michigan could revert somewhat to its historical mean. If it did, the effects would be felt statewide. And that's true to a lesser extent in other areas including northwest and southwest Michigan.

Even in metro Detroit, with its predominantly Democratic lean, Republicans aren't without hope: Macomb County, the third largest in the state, continues to show a modest but growing lean toward the GOP. And then there are areas like mid-Michigan, which can heavily affect close races: If Republicans were to win the race next year for Michigan's 7th Congressional District with U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Lansing, stepping down to run for U.S. Senate, it could tip the balance in the state's congressional delegation to the GOP, 7-6, and help the GOP retain control of the House.

And no one would be shocked if Republicans somehow regained control of the state House, despite the new redistricting maps, with Democrats holding a mere two-seat majority in the chamber.

The question is, with so many wins in recent years, can Democrats in Michigan keep it up.

"You had a whole base of voters who came out to support Prop 3 (in 2022, which enshrined a right to abortion in Michigan) but are they engaged and motivated to vote for Biden?" said Leonard. "At this point, many voters are going to feel like, OK, we took care of that. In 2008, how many new voters did you have come out for (former President Barack) Obama? Did they (the Democrats) keep them engaged for 2010? They did not and the Republicans took advantage of that" she said, referring to the GOP winning back the U.S. House and increasing their numbers in the Senate that year.

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Democrats do have their weapons, however.

The case for Democratic hopes next year

In the latest poll of Michigan voters in June by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, which does work for the Free Press, 52% had an unfavorable impression of Biden, compared to 39% with a favorable view of the president.

For Biden, that's terrible. Those numbers are worse than former President Barack Obama's in the same poll — 50% unfavorable, 46% favorable — the week before Democrats took a shellacking in the 2010 election in the aftermath of the Great Recession and passage of the Affordable Care Act.

But Trump's are worse at 57% unfavorable, 34% favorable.

No question, Trump brings people to the polls in droves. But in Michigan and several other swing states since 2016, he's managed to turn out more voters against him and his allies than for them. And there's no reason to believe that won't be the case next year if, as all polls indicate now, he is his party's nominee. A drop in turnout — as was the case in 2016 when he won Michigan in a race between two widely unpopular candidates, him and Hillary Clinton — would be a severe departure from the mean.

"I've thought a lot about that '16 comparison," said Mark Burton, a former chief strategist for Whitmer who helps lead the Economic Development Incentives Group for the Honigman law firm. "The recipe is there in its infancy stages but there are critical differences. These people in the (political) middle, they didn't really have a firm image or impression of Trump (in 2016)... They could give the guy a chance."

"Now I think a lot of people have that burned negative image in their head of him."

Given the fact that Trump has burned bridges with so many former Republican leaders and has continued to embrace a pugilistic style mired in airing of grievances and conspiracies that has played particularly poorly with educated votes in urban and suburban areas, it's hard to see that changing. If he somehow weren't the nominee, however, it's also not difficult to see at least some of those voters, especially in the suburbs, potentially embracing a Republican, much as those in Virginia did Gov. Glenn Youngkin (rumored to be looking at a presidential run) in 2021.

"Jobs, the economy, social issues, education, personal responsibility," said Leonard. "When candidates and the parties... are able to talk to voters on those issues, they can win."

Trump's loyal base is big enough, however, that it looks like the race for the nomination is his if he stays in — even with indictments and upcoming trials looming.

The June Michigan poll showed a 44%-44% split between Biden and Trump, with 12% undecided. The Times poll showed a 43%-43% split nationally, with 14% undecided. Burton figures that "When it comes to the persuadable potential of those voters, Biden has an advantage."

And the campaign season really hasn't heated up yet, with 15 months to go.

But there is no question that there is an enthusiasm gap Biden needs to close, especially with voters who may believe, at age 80, he's too old for a second term. Those voters might not need to embrace Trump — who is 77 — to have an effect, either. If they were to migrate to a third-party candidate, or stay home in large numbers: Hello, 2016.

Michigan will be a Democratic bulwark in '24 and there's no reason to believe Biden can't repeat his '20 victory at this point.

But depending on the circumstances that develop between now and next November, it's not a sure thing.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan Democrats' big gains no guarantee headed into 2024