Michigan football vs. Northwestern: by the numbers, preview, score predictions
Michigan football hosts the Northwestern Wildcats on Saturday at noon EDT after coming off of a bye week. This week, we’re combining the ‘by the numbers’ article with the staff predictions. You can find most of how each team ranks from a statistical standpoint, and then the players to watch and the WolverinesWire staff predictions on the next page.
Offense
Rank (metric) | Rank (metric) | ||
Michigan scoring offense | 14th (38.5 ppg) | 61st (23.8 ppg) | Northwestern scoring defense |
Michigan rushing offense | 6th (246.5 ypg) | 118th (206.17 ypga) | Northwestern rushing defense |
Michigan passing offense | 103rd (194 ypg) | 42nd (205.2 ypga) | Northwestern passing defense |
Michigan total offense | 39th (440.5 ypg) | 94th (411.13 ypga) | Northwestern total defense |
Michigan yards per play | 26th (6.53 ypp) | 95th (5.86 ypga) | Northwestern yards per play allowed |
Michigan first downs | 68th (21 pg) | 66th (19.8 apg) | Northwestern opp. first downs |
Michigan third down conv. | 45th (43.04%) | 55th (37.21%) | Northwestern opp. third down conv. |
Michigan fourth down conv. | 29th (66.67%) | 45th (44.44%) | Northwestern opp. fourth down conv. |
Michigan red zone conv. | 6th (97.56%) | 53rd (80%) | Northwestern opp. red zone conv. |
Michigan sacks allowed | 1st (0.33 sapg) | 64th (2.33 spg) | Northwestern sacks |
Michigan TFL allowed | 1st (2.17 tfla/gm) | 98th (5.33 tfl/gm) | Northwestern TFL |
Michigan long scrimmage plays | 111th (72 10+ yd plays) | 34th (76 10+ yd plays) | Northwestern long plays allowed |
Michigan penalties | 35th (46.2 yds/gm) | 48th (57.7 yds/gm) | Northwestern opp. penalties |
Michigan TOP | 25th (31:38.00) | 57th (29:57.67) | Northwestern TOP |
List
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Defense
Rank (metric) | Rank (metric) | ||
Michigan scoring defense | 8th (15.5 ppg) | 110th (21.8 ppg) | Northwestern scoring offense |
Michigan rushing defense | 33rd (119.33 ypga) | 54th (171.33 ypg) | Northwestern rushing offense |
Michigan passing defense | 22nd (190.7 ypga) | 95th (203.3 ypg) | Northwestern passing offense |
Michigan total defense | 20th (310 ypga) | 84th (374.7 ypg) | Northwestern total offense |
Michigan yards per play allowed | 26th (4.91 yppa) | 96th (5.2 ypp) | Northwestern yards per play |
Michigan opp. first downs | 19th (16.5 apg) | 89th (20 pg) | Northwestern first downs |
Michigan opp. third down conv. | 31st (34.09%) | 74th (39.13%) | Northwestern third down conv. |
Michigan opp. fourth down conv. | 34th (38.46%) | 68h (50%) | Northwestern fourth down conv. |
Michigan opp. red zone conv. | 68th (83.33%) | 122nd (69.18%) | Northwestern red zone conv. |
Michigan sacks | 64th (2.33 s/gm) | 58th (2.17 sa/gm) | Northwestern sacks allowed |
Michigan TFL | 102nd (5.17 tfl/gm) | 75th (6.5 tfla/gm) | Northwestern TFL allowed |
Michigan long scrimmage plays allowed | 7th (61 10+ yd plays) | 111h (72 10+ yd plays) | Northwestern long plays |
Michigan opp. penalties | 116th (40 yd/gm) | 26th (44.2 yd/gm) | Northwestern penalties |
Michigan turnover margin | 9th (+1/gm) | 63rd (0/gm) | Northwestern turnover margin |
List
ESPN FPI: Michigan football game-by-game predictions after Week 4
Special teams
Rank (metric) | Rank (metric) | ||
Michigan kickoff | 47th (63.29 yds) | 35th (60.64 yds) | Northwestern opp. kickoff |
Michigan kickoff return | 59th (20.93 yds/ret) | 41st (19.06 yds/ret) | Northwestern kickoff return allowed |
Michigan punting | 39th (45.11 yds/p) | 99th (44.35 yds/p) | Northwestern opp. punting |
Michigan punt return | 22nd (13.07 yds/ret) | 70th (7.5 yds/ret) | Northwestern punt return allowed |
Michigan field goals | 18th (92.3%) | 6th (50%) | Northwestern opp. field goals |
Michigan PAT | 1st (100%) | 64th (100%) | Northwestern opp. PAT |
Michigan opp. kickoff | 5th (57.77 yds) | 77th (62 yds) | Northwestern kickoff |
Michigan kickoff return allowed | 1st (8.75 yds/ret) | 127th (12.86 yds/ret) | Northwestern kickoff return |
Michigan opp. punting | 112th (45.24 yds/p) | 75th (42.68 yds/p) | Northwestern punting |
Michigan punt return allowed | 28th (4 yds/ret) | 3rd (19.18 yds/ret) | Northwestern punt return |
Michigan opp. field goals | 50h (71.4%) | 125th (50%) | Northwestern field goals |
Michigan opp. PAT | 64th (100%) | 1st (100%) | Northwestern PAT |
NEXT PAGE: Players to look out for, final predictions
Players to know
Player | Stats to Know | |
Quarterback | Ryan Hilinski | 57/99 (57.6%), 645 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT |
Running Back | Evan Hull | 95 car, 562 yds (5.92 ypc), 4 TD (93.67 ypg) |
Wide Receivers | Stephon Robinson Jr. Malik Washington Bryce Kirtz | 28 catches, 424 yds (15.14 ypc), 2 TD 18 catches, 255 yds (14.17 ypc), 2 TD 19 catches, 203 yds (10.68 ypc), 0 TD |
Leading Tacklers | LB Chris Bergin S Brandon Joseph LB Bryce Gallagher | 63 tackles 40 tackles 38 tackles |
Sacks Leaders | DL Jeremy Meiser DL Adetomiwa Adebawore DL Jeffrey Pooler Jr. | 4.0 sacks, 20 yds 3.5 sacks, 20 yds 2.5 sacks, 13 yds |
TFL Leaders | DL Adetomiwa Adebawore DL Jeremy Meiser DL Jeffrey Pooler Jr. | 7 TFL, 34 yds 6 TFL, 22 yds 3 TFL, 14 yds |
Most passes broken up | A.J. Hampton Jr. | 8 PBU |
Interception Leaders | S Brandon Joseph LB Chris Bergin LB Bryce Gallagher | 1 INT, 26 yds 1 INT, 0 yds 1 INT, 0 yds |
Field Goals | K Charlie Kuhbander | 4/8 FG attempts |
Punting | P Derek Adams | 42.38 yds/punt |
Punt Returns | Brandon Joseph Raymond Niro III | 4 ret, 114 yds (28.5 avg) 4 ret, 68 yds (17 avg) |
List
3 keys to a Michigan football victory vs. Northwestern
Predictions
Trent Knoop
I really don’t see how Northwestern will be able to stir up enough offense to come into the Big House and defeat Michigan on Saturday. The Wildcats look really average, at most, on the offensive side of the ball — even with Ryan Hilinski in at quarterback. I will say that Evan Hull has had a good year so far, but he will be going up against a rock-solid Michigan defensive line.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t see how NU can stop the Michigan running attack. This will arguably the toughest competition Northwestern has faced in terms of stopping the run, and it hasn’t handled run defense well so far, so why would it now? I think Corum and Haskins has a huge day. I think Michigan wins pretty big and we see plenty of backups get a shot in on Saturday.
Michigan runs for over 350 yards
McNamara throws two touchdowns
Michigan 38, Northwestern 14
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Isaiah Hole
This is kind of a weird game, in that, to look at the stats above, on paper, the two teams a very similar, save for Northwestern’s run defense, while Michigan is also more explosive running the ball. But, outside of those things, they look relatively similar on paper.
Except, the Wildcats have struggled mightily all season, whereas the Wolverines have mostly dominated all year.
Ryan Hilinski appears to be playing better than Hunter Johnson at quarterback, even though the stats aren’t significantly better. Still, he’s getting better every week. The wide receiver production is also something to be wary of. On defense, Northwestern appears to just straight-up allow what Michigan does on offense, so barring a drastic change, expect the Wolverines to run the ball with impunity while it passes off of that.
Basically, regardless of what the stats above say, if Michigan doesn’t dominate, something went wrong.
Michigan gets 500 yards of total offense
The defense forces three Wildcats turnovers
Michigan 38, Northwestern 14
